Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Roger J Smith]

As an aside, that ECM scenario would be disastrous for the heavy snow situation in the Alps adding huge amounts to what is already too much snow there, and would likely create other high elevation snow disruption events in Italy south of the Alps, and into the Balkans. This could extend further north into higher parts of the Czech Rep and Poland also. 

[Tim Bland]

Whilst many factors are marginal for snow on the ECM, don’t forget the DAM / thickness. 528 or lower is usually what’s required for snow ....

[karlos1983]

Lost the link to the Hungarian MetO site again

Anyine got it? 

TIA

[northwestsnow]

The mood has lifted in here tonight!!

ECM lead the way!!

BOSH to that mean its FABULOUS!!

[Methuselah]

ECM Day 10 really is a corking stonker of a chart; move the LP a couple hundred miles east, it'd really open the floodgates!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Lost the link to the Hungarian MetO site again

Anyine got it? 

TIA

They're an absolute snorter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Edited January 14, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

They're an absolute snorter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

Show me show me

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Lost the link to the Hungarian MetO site again

Anyine got it? 

TIA

Stop needing to delete your history

[Duane S.]

WOW ECM.

Ummm just the ‘smallest of hints’ to drop the trough on a NW to SE axis through us then...

 

Had to double check these were mean D7 to D10 charts. Incredibly strong signal.

[sparky1972]

Evening all, so the rollarcoaster goes on, a quick question for those more in the know, it seems that each day starts off with alot more doom and gloom after the overnight runs, then as the day goes on the mood lifts, the models are churning out dream charts for cold and snow, then the following morning its all doom again, is it a data input issue or something else that seems to cause it? 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Show me show me

Have done - above.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Stop needing to delete your history

LOL

Weeks 2,3,4 all look great

Edited January 14, 2019 by karlos1983

[snowray]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Corking EPS up till 240 all round.

I've just corked a bottle of Prosecco!

I wasn't expecting much if I'm honest from the 122z runs apart from the far reaches of FI, but to my surprise thing are starting to look really interesting, I'm in love with the ECM and para 12z's. I'm thinking to myself now that February this year could turn into one of those epic cold and snowy one's from yesteryear, I'm certainly expecting lots of weather porn charts to pop up in the next few days.

The para shows decent snow cover countrywide from next Tuesday onwards, amazing.

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by snowray

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They're an absolute snorter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Stunning ……..…….nice one !

[supernova]

28 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

LOL

Weeks 2,3,4 all look great

Deleted.

Edited January 14, 2019 by supernova

[Singularity]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Whilst many factors are marginal for snow on the ECM, don’t forget the DAM / thickness. 528 or lower is usually what’s required for snow ....

Indeed. With such low heights the 850 guide is not as helpful and I was surprised to see rain for the far central south and southeast in the raw data. Model must have drawn in a shallow milder layer off the sea... but these are usually under-modified as they head inland.

Odds are the low will be weaker with less wrap-in trouble anyway (based on historical precedent). A pretty vigorous system is certainly possible though due to the very unstable nature of the deeply cold airmass crossing the mild ocean SSTs.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening. The outlook is colder yes, but how cold and for how long still remains a big question, really cant take any detail as reality even with a modest timeframe, gfs and ecm look so different by the end of the week, you cant dismiss either! A bit like a Chocolate Teapot!

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, supernova said:

Certainly cold Karlos but a tad on the dry side, especially in the East, which seems odd given the Continental influence? Anyway, that old adage, cold in first etc. Be interested to see 15 day precipitation charts later tonight. Will post if interesting.

I’m guessing average ppn singnal is still not especially dry in late January into February

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

Certainly cold Karlos but a tad on the dry side, especially in the East, which seems odd given the Continental influence? Anyway, that old adage, cold in first etc. Be interested to see 15 day precipitation charts later tonight. Will post if interesting.

Looks like a NE flow to me - expect the Greenland heights to be maintained - take back what i said - possibly migrating scandi at the end, its the NW where we have below average PPN on there, the blue colourss are in the NE, you wont get massively above average PPN charts with those charts with blocked signals - don't forget, you only need average, even slightly below average - weekly averages for this time of year are around 20-25mm of PPN, so even if you get half of that - you are looking at 10-12cm of snow!!

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Indeed. With such low heights the 850 guide is not as helpful and I was surprised to see rain for the far central south and southeast in the raw data. Model must have drawn in a shallow milder layer off the sea... but these are usually under-modified as they head inland.

Odds are the low will be weaker with less wrap-in trouble anyway (based on historical precedent). A pretty vigorous system is certainly possible though due to the very unstable nature of the deeply cold airmass crossing the mild ocean SSTs.

Yeah the wind flow coming from the channel is nearly always the death knell for events south of the M4 in these set-ups, I can't remember a single event like that bringing snow in any of locations in the south I've lived in in the last 20 years...but then again always a time for firsts, and you've got to think with even a slight bit of height you'd be getting snow even in the south.ven

As you said the odds of it coming in quite as hot as the ECM says is low, but 955mbs isn't so deep as to be improbable, even if it was a little unlikely.

Whilst the 46 day ECM is amazing, I've got to say I've been seeing those charts for the last month now and it seems not to have come off thus far, just for balance

Edited January 14, 2019 by kold weather

[stratty]

The greatest snowfall I have ever seen and lowest temps, with not so low heights:

Definitely some similarities here!

Edited January 14, 2019 by stratty

[Froze were the Days]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might not be much use - depends how tonights eps ends - differences on the mean at 240 so if 360 is vastly different and this run is repeated, then it might be redundant, however, if it still manages to get blocking in then thats a good sign, can't see it being as good as previous updates - its just too much to expect to keep on repeating it.

Looks like they did repeat...:)

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Looks like they did repeat...:)

Yes, looks like it.

[knocker]

Interesting medium range EPS mean anomaly this evening

Upstream still the Aleutian low and strong ridging in the east Pacific into the Arctic But the vortex and trough has slipped a little south down eastern America which in turn results in the subtropical high amplifying into south Greenland. And with the trough downstream becoming a tad more positive tilted south of the UK some adjustments to the thinking required.

The strong Canada > UK corridor is now not so evident and although systems can still move along there would appear much greater chance of slipping Arctic air into the mix so portending unsettled with a temps perhaps significantly below average, But the surface analysis could be quite complex and take some sorting by the det run

The GEFs is not so bold with the downstream amplification

[mulzy]

Ext EPS are really good - probably the best so far this winter.

UK trough with heights/pressure building in the Greenland locale.

Edited January 14, 2019 by mulzy