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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Its time for the slushy deposits associated with non-blocked patterns to begin, lets hope either the ECM op or GEFS right at the end are on to something so the blocking arrives soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Take with a dose of salt but here are the options for day 10...

GEM, GFS, GFSP, ECM

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.478bc31d6ef082008ce418a77d336229.pnggfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.1f741e53b79717f07cdd8cd5bc961eb7.pnggfsnh-0-240p.thumb.png.04f860513a315254df0d3c485297474a.pngECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.90320ec9bdf86f18a15cad8df1fb6a4f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
37 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

No pinches of salt...

THE HIGHLY LIKELY EVO...

@perfect placement...

Edit ..are we getting the notion....#hopefully..

@be @calm...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_36.png

ECH1-216 (2).gif

Is this similar to yesterday’s GFS Snowicane that was um politely disregarded as unlikely?  I’m beginning to hope those of you, who are far more knowledgeable than me (99.9%),  will also politely disregard the likelihood and severity of this actually happening - meant to be at a public meeting doing a presentation in the evening

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

C3654D67-A01B-4FE2-B45E-7601C038CE52.jpeg

As we know, these are overdone.  Snow will be pretty marginal away from the favoured spots.  What is of interest is what happens AFTER day 10.

Not expecting any snow in London on this run.  But things look promising day 10 +.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC puts wind in coldies sails..

Day 11 would be superb..

Not sure where we go from there but if we did get anywhere near that day 10 point you can see a secondary low develop on it's eastern flank which would move north towards Scandinavia so probably more of a northerly developing and colder uppers being thrown into the mix.

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

C3654D67-A01B-4FE2-B45E-7601C038CE52.jpeg

Obviously these type of charts will change right up until +24... but I like that's it's showing potential for snow in the far South West. If it can snow there, it can snow anywhere :oldsmile:

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

To date a storm that deep has never crossed North to South across the UK

so chances are a watered down 'spread' version could be on offer with a sharper trough axis & more in the way of continental influence in the flow !

We shall see ...

This gave about 4" of snow in parts of southern England & is a 'worse' chart than what we are seeing at D10.

image.thumb.png.71f4f509c1b046065119077d9f499543.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Corking EPS up till 240 all round.

I bet there is some stonkers in the ens tonight .

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Think we all needed that ECM run tonight. Good to see it following the week 2 ecm46 charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Think we all needed that ECM run tonight. Good to see it following the week 2 ecm46 charts.

Speaking of which, the ECM 49 day model updates tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, That ECM said:

Is corking better than stonking?

They are superb and getting interesting

Just a different superlative - means the same thing really.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Speaking of which, the ECM 4day model updates tonight.

It might not be much use - depends how tonights eps ends - differences on the mean at 240 so if 360 is vastly different and this run is repeated, then it might be redundant, however, if it still manages to get blocking in then thats a good sign, can't see it being as good as previous updates - its just too much to expect to keep on repeating it.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bromley
  • Location: Bromley
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Speaking of which, the ECM 49 day model updates tonight.

Hopefully we’ve seen from the latest ECM following the 46 dayer from the other day that it won’t be dropping its signals... let’s hope

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