Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Mapantz]

Very nice looking 240 hrs from the ECM. Top right corner.

 

[ICE COLD]

Would of love to of seen T264 on the ECM. 

[Frosty.]

Superb end to the Ecm 12z but now I want to see days 11..12..13 etc!!!

[Purga]

Another variation on the theme

Snowy and blowy for the north in parts

[WalsallWeather123]

Will the -4 to -6 uppers give snow to low levels on 216-240 hours that the ECM shows?

[feb1991blizzard]

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Would of love to of seen T264 on the ECM. 

No doubt cold cyclonic flow from the E quadrant, probably a shot at a slidder low from the lp south of Greenland at 240hrs.

BA, that's the one advantage of having a proper deep low pressure coming from that direction, you're getting a true arctic air mass. Still looks classic hill snow territory at 216hrs to me, but I maybe wrong, it nay just be cold enough lower down at time,bespecially in showers

Edited January 14, 2019 by kold weather

[knocker]

The ecm has the front and precipitation fragmenting through friday/Saturday but it is augmented overnight Saturday and through Sunday by another frontal wave tracking south east into the north as the subtropical high amplifies in mid Atlantic. So a wet and windy day, particularly in the north

But as can be seen on the above chart the initial splitting of the ridge towards the end on the week (mentioned earlier in the short range) has initiated a ridge in th Iceland/Greenland area and this develops well as the next system tracks south east along the now established Canada > UK corridor bringing more frontal rain and strong winds by T180

But this then leads on to a scenario we do not want verified

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by knocker

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Very nice looking 240 hrs from the ECM. Top right corner.

 

Yes it is! Perfect flow direction, DP’s would be low so uppers not a problem. What a chart 

[mb018538]

ECM has very low 500mb heights in cold air at 216.....snow in places for sure.

[Mr Frost]

Dream charts for Scotland - please let this come true! 

Phenomenal!!!! 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

EC is an improvement on its 00z run..

For now, that will do..

 

[Jason M]

ECM would be mostly snow 'as shown'. -5c uppers encroaching into already embedded cold air is completely different to the usual PM airmass displacing a TM airmass.

That said, given those synoptics I rather suspect that the uppers would in reality be higher than is currently shown.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wonderful ECM.....ot meets my Pert 6 GFS run the other day on samish date......easterly gale force winds......beautiful 

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder if this version of the GEFS went out further, whether they could leave a legacy of a Greenland high.

[kold weather]

So having had a good look at the 12z ECM and the best way to phrase it is wintry between 216-240hrs. All rain for the south, turning alot more snowy the more north you get. 

It's snowy than you'd expect but as ba said, there are some decently low dew points in there away from the south.

[weirpig]

ECm snow charts show Tuesday as being the day were disruptive snow could fall  south wales North  could see the start of a very snowy period  off course all subject to change  but the potential is there     snow line  around 400ft   

Edited January 14, 2019 by weirpig

[LeeSnowFan]

A very deep low system for next week looks scary but time for change 

[Man With Beard]

ECM op D6-D9 looks like a north of the M4 job. More hope for the south in the days after. 

A bit erratic how it gets there, but the D10 chart is pretty much what the ECM ensembles have been suggesting for 24th January for days. 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

So having had a good look at the 12z ECM and the best way to phrase it is wintry between 216-240hrs. All rain for the south, turning alot more snowy the more north you get. 

It's snowy than you'd expect but as ba said, there are some decently low dew points in there away from the south.

To date a storm that deep has never crossed North to South across the UK

so chances are a watered down 'spread' version could be on offer with a sharper trough axis & more in the way of continental influence in the flow !

We shall see ...

[chris55]

Look at the amount of energy heading down into the euro trough (not to be taken as a forecast ) though does remind me of dec 2010! A large chunk of  the PV effectively taking up residence over France :0 (SSW influenced I should think)

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Anyone here in the north of the UK, say north midlands northwards, with high altitude, go and get your sledges ready  everywhere else, surprises could crop up almost anywhere 

[Mokidugway]

Snow probability  chart for 24th

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Logged on fully expecting to see a horrific ECM and a high body count from model anger. But very pleasantly surprised to see a positive Model run for cold prospects. Hopefully we are over the worst now and can have upgrades all the way Down to T0 

[Tim Bland]