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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BBC graphic does have another front weakening as it moves south on Sunday, but bringing some snow as it does so - fits ECM well.

BBC graphics are ECMWF Feb, so that would kinda make sense

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Probably depends on where you live, but for me this ecm 192 is the best chart of the winter for what SHOULD follow.

ECMOPEU12_192_1-1.png

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted (edited)

248 active members right now..lets see what the ECM conjures up..

And at t192 I'm not really sure what to make of it. Very cold uppers E and SE. If only the jet can move west..

12_192_mslp500.png

Edited by CSC
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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
13 minutes ago, shaky said:

Am pretty certain thats a snow event across england between 96 -120 hour ecm!

Can't see that happening 

More like a minor event for northern England

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

But will the evo stick, TI?

Gaining rapidly..

And as again...a likely format ..

So yes ..

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

 

ensembles GEM 12z highlighting the possibilities with these sliding lows 

gensnh-0-1-192.thumb.png.1e8f8d133b067f6d2005677a852a4556.pnggensnh-0-1-276.thumb.png.e439d604750fc57b4311d72ff739bf7e.png   not far off the easterly feed with this one gens-3-1-288.thumb.png.14a8075652bab922bc4c5cbf77692a01.png 

gens-4-1-216.thumb.png.70087ea7a78a88560b20692d71b6803b.pnggens-6-1-300.thumb.png.c37cd3913f442db41b8c30f2060cd752.pnggens-6-1-312.thumb.png.7eb1054da1d872763dc04e902edabaf1.pnggens-6-1-324.thumb.png.333d067f377aa210b7ec6ef0891cde4e.pnggens-6-1-372.thumb.png.1f1c302ff7d80b57928b816be864fdf2.pnggensnh-7-1-228.thumb.png.a5a215604dbe79738669070f0d411a6d.png     

gens-7-1-360.thumb.png.0a47b8266ce8ffc834497884814c9714.pnggensnh-8-3-384.thumb.png.578feca8bcc8426d2c0c1944a4f4066b.pnggens-10-1-252.thumb.png.09670927bd40bd2b9a711d896277c379.pnggens-10-1-288.thumb.png.ab5e2fb77c46a3c7babd7759de9b18f4.pnggens-10-1-324.thumb.png.7fce9283ae2b8f2d88e99670a153de5c.pnggensnh-11-1-384.thumb.png.4dd2008e822f4c9bdbbff2dc1bf2885f.png     

gens-14-1-252.thumb.png.6cad6cb43e66516cdad1fcb848c9ad35.pnggens-14-1-360.thumb.png.2d4a208146dfec4300c74745e3d3fb99.pnggens-14-1-384.thumb.png.d965d8d0ec2744454a6237c4f519e055.pnggensnh-16-1-384.thumb.png.c3663f7e189761e8843eb87dd00bc8c6.pnggensnh-17-1-252.thumb.png.4c39c89acc4ba50373036e9d6a2b2e98.pnggensnh-17-1-348.thumb.png.cae75528da31f7578ce62849a120fba2.pnggens-18-1-216.thumb.png.b287bd6a53e34176446a87c61ea0f6f1.pnggens-18-1-228.thumb.png.615c1a0dece34eec7d2db30f16940fbe.png     

ensemble NAEFS 12z 

naefsnh-0-0-336.thumb.png.49c04130f4a50fab616379aaa4b338e2.pngnaefsnh-0-0-372.thumb.png.12451d25803732ac845957f2086ecf87.png  

 

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mother nature rocks Aficionado

mother nature rocks

Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
Posted

As others have stated, if this trend continues the Netweather servers could well be in trouble.

As a side note the Weatherbell daily update is an interesting watch tonight!!! 

MNR

DDE4A4AF-1909-4071-9B1A-69A6A38368B9.jpeg

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

BBC graphics are ECMWF Feb, so that would kinda make sense

Yes although it must have been based on the 0z run.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

A lot going on . For the UK to stay in the cold a westwards correction would be needed . Then between day 7 and 8 more amplitude upstream to sharpen up the angry looking low to the west . A stronger build of pressure to the ne towards Svalbard wouldn’t go amiss to help disrupt that .

Still plenty of time for changes. 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

ECM blows up 216 hrs.wet and very windy !!!

Could be some snow about . 

B284A0AF-93A1-4A27-8635-443D4FB18A6B.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T 216

image.thumb.jpg.c73eef13ebed306f4234408fb487d808.jpg

The amplification starts

Yes, fantastic chart. Good run really. Be interesting to see where it sits within its members 

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

ECM blows up 216 hrs.wet and very windy !!!

I know it's potential, but wait for 240...short term pain?

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

955mbs low into UK, wind probably main story from 216hrs, cold rain/sleet for most but hill snow probable.

More fun to come after though you'd think, not a bad evolution at all.

Edited by kold weather
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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

EC:

When those two Highs conect and push the Canada Vortex eastwards.... just sayin'

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

ECM and GFS mean 850 charts against GFS op run at T168

ECM0-168.thumb.gif.e5e018c8a9325041ce213dff639a8e1e.gifgens-21-0-168.thumb.png.2ce7e39f6a27ba64825809f48e7b8f81.pnggfs-1-168.thumb.png.bd8a005df89df35c9670a44f99fe139a.png

underlines the eastward extent of the GFS op with the cold at day 7 compared to it's own mean and ECM op.The tendency by GFS to often model the Atlantic jet energy further north and more progressively.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

955mbs low into UK, wind probably main story from 216hrs, cold rain/sleet for most but hill snow probable.

More fun to come after though you'd think, not a bad evolution at all.

whilst the uppers behind the front don't look special, this is cold air - dp's below zero in a wsw flow !

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

The EC op just shows how fickle the modelling situation (and the thread) is at the moment.

Expectations should be limited more than usual at present. Hold off placing confidence in any run beyond days 4-5. Lots of options forthcoming  

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

ECH1-240.GIF?14-0

The two high zones could conect in the future, maybe pushing Canada low GeoP eastwards

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