Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

This slider and it’s evolution is proving turbulent, yet another solution on EC in the mid term. Though IMO this looks the most favourable for cold to take hold. 

ec 120

D5B4D795-6DB7-47C8-B7A8-75E4F1CDAA72.thumb.png.0bbe3e3af04b6067ee9e34e5cc896cd7.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Improvement at 144 ECM more Nw/se tilt cold pm air flooding in.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ahem ....

Lol.

 

Steve it’s all about what happens after re model alignment, but the wintryness depends on the slidergate result.  Colder cold continental influence will mean much better result when that trough dives NW/SE.  

 

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Will it eject the shortwave cleanly after  day 6!

A change of evolution between day 5 and 6 from the ECM.

Need to keep an eye on the system coming off the esb as well, as that could well flatten the pattern?

EDIT; it appears to be behaving

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

And just to add, this ‘slider’ looked to only affect the short term, ECMs evolution says otherwise. The difference between EC and GFS highlight how the path of the low and associated energy could support a surface high ahead (or not in the case of gfs)

FD7A43C0-95BF-409B-86C6-5DA027722A91.thumb.png.4b479b2599e8b257059c926d9284dbdc.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Am pretty certain thats a snow event across england between 96 -120 hour ecm!

bit meh away from northern hills

the transition to the nw airflow brings dp's back above 0c

that op is very similar to the single eps cluster from the 00z run ---- spooky!

should clear se at day 7 and the small ridge build in behind ….. then throw a double six and guess day 8 …………...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

T168 are take it for now . 

4668E208-993F-4DB8-93D0-C8D84C1D952D.png

Edited by ICE COLD
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Tm-forcing..and the upper occur..can/will do 'i think wonders 4 our part..

Even down 2 mid term analysis..fruition..

The minor details becoming..'minor issues'..

AGAIN THE SLAGGED OFF MASSIVE PRE- SUMMER FORCES/ at-waa will soon become the cold fans pal...

@azores aiding

 

ECH1-168 (1).gif

Screenshot_2019-01-14-18-38-12.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

t168 looking very promising..look to the NW..there may be an incoming snow event.. 

If that low sinks SE as I mentioned earlier, we could be celebrating something special indeed..

Edited by CSC
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Could be some major drama coming up,if this new evolution is the new trend . A correction further west and bedlam is likely to ensue in here !

As long as it before day 10 nick lol . ECM upping the ante

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

As long as it before day 10 nick lol . ECM upping the ante

Yes a bit shallower with the shortwave and a touch further west and it could get very interesting .

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Could be some major drama coming up,if this new evolution is the new trend . A correction further west and bedlam is likely to ensue in here !

It's all looking good again, I think my new plan will be to look again at the GFS pub run later tonight but must try not to look at the early morning runs as they always downgrade only to upgrade again later throughout the day.. ?☺❄❄

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, tight isobar said:

No pinches of salt...

THE HIGHLY LIKELY EVO...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_36.png

But will the evo stick, TI?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...