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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

 

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Evening everyone-

Minima time available today but always lurking-

Firstly its nice to see the GFS getting a hard time as its really really struggling here- but remember I said sunday 24-36 hours & it would come aboard ! - The FV3 has finally landed & the GFS will arrive at the party- it Must... Probably 12z tomorrow.

So what party are we arriving it? 

My nerves & frustrations have been tempered today as we seen correction back west, & what comes with it is more influence from the continent -

The continental feed is crucial if anyone in the south / SE wants to see Snow -along any frontal boundary

The slider then - its on, whats it got to slide into? - The upper air will be about -5/-6c with lowish dewpoints, So there will likely be an area along the boundary of Wintry weather- 

Obvious caveats are

- The further North & East you are the better ( as long as you are in the PPN belt )

- Elevation makes a difference >150M ideally. 

- The frontal zone wont be that large -

Heres a plot of my thoughts ( also includes NI as well )

 

F885C122-DE10-4AF3-B339-B924A1104565.thumb.jpeg.dcac2c48bb78ae6dc5a135295bb08110.jpeg

Post this the little area of High pressure to our north east in the North sea will support cold uppers (-6c) moving back west which may well support snow when the altlantic dives that big storm South East ( See FV3)

Best

Steve

Well done that should answer a lot of members questions! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

 

F885C122-DE10-4AF3-B339-B924A1104565.thumb.jpeg.dcac2c48bb78ae6dc5a135295bb08110.jpeg

P

Only thing is, steve, its not a very active weather front, i don't see anyone doing what i class as 'well' out of this setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is, steve, its not a very active weather front, i don't see anyone doing what i class as 'well' out of this setup.

Same here, seems light precipitation at best, is there any scope to increase precipitation?

@Steve Murr

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is, steve, its not a very active weather front, i don't see anyone doing what i class as 'well' out of this setup.

only the very beginnings of this cold spell - gfsp for eg showing numerous snow ops into next week and further on with the hlb

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is, steve, its not a very active weather front, i don't see anyone doing what i class as 'well' out of this setup.

Yes I means to write that after the frontal zone wont be that large ( was going to say decaying )

** NB ECM 2c uppers colder at 72 than UKMO -7c in London **

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

some wild NH day 16 gefs charts - my favourite being PTB 17

i think the problem we have is no one knows the week 2 direction of travel apart from the Canadian trough dropping se ……… and then whether its an extension of the trough or a chunk - how far will it get - how far west will it be - how far east will it be. it could pretty well miss us if its too far east or west. people are expecting proper winter to kick in but the entropy leads to continuity issues and the obvious consequences ….. if this was a winter where we had seen a snowy spell in December, it wouldn't be such a problem ……. sadly its going to take patience to see the nwp come together on a closer theme and timing

note that the ICON12z looks similar to the ec 00z at day 8 so an ec run which looks a lot like its previous output actually wouldn't be a shock ……...although i felt the 12z's thus far had pulled the envelope back a bit from its eastern extent  

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

ECM T72 the cold is in . The ECM is more of a N flow and the gfs is NW flow . This is just at T72 . 

8666E3B6-10EF-4F9E-95CC-D1826D88AF8B.png

F0599D9F-8A8B-4B3A-83C8-260E7C5BDF8D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And to add further confusion (though based on slightly earlier runs) here's Gav's latest stumble walk through the models: 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

In the next 2/3 days ECM day 8/9/10 charts are going to reward everyone’s patience.

HLB will start appearing and snow chances will increase. 

I’m looking forward to using Euro 4 if I can still find where it is

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=3&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS just beginning to realize the low will slide..

What a donkey of a model.

I wouldn’t say that, I think the UKMO has decided after the slidergate the GFS is onto something and joined it??   The longerterm is for very deep LP to move NW/SE (displaced pv segment), the only thing to decide was the wedge holding colder air over us until the assault.....on that basis microscale GFS edging towards euro but macro it’s been seeing the path?

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

I wouldn't be surprised if, and this is a big IF, if we saw a trough drop south through the UK or just east in the D5-D7 evidence in UKMO it might do but a big if.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I wouldn’t say that, I think the UKMO has decided after the slidergate the GFS is onto something and joined it??  

BFTP

What blasphemy, Fred! The UKMO following the GFS???

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A significant difference even at the early stages between ECM and GFS. Uppers are starkly variable between both models already at t92. ECM and UKMO will win this one out IMO with the slider idea, GFS appears drunk, much like the USA government situation..

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is, steve, its not a very active weather front, i don't see anyone doing what i class as 'well' out of this setup.

To be fair i’d be happy to see a flake at the moment, it feels like we’ve been on the cusp of something since mid Autumn.

Lets hope we are rewarded in the second half of winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

BBC graphic does have another front weakening as it moves south on Sunday, but bringing some snow as it does so - fits ECM well.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

some wild NH day 16 gefs charts - my favourite being PTB 17

i think the problem we have is no one knows the week 2 direction of travel apart from the Canadian trough dropping se ……… and then whether its an extension of the trough or a chunk - how far will it get - how far west will it be - how far east will it be. it could pretty well miss us if its too far east or west. people are expecting proper winter to kick in but the entropy leads to continuity issues and the obvious consequences ….. if this was a winter where we had seen a snowy spell in December, it wouldn't be such a problem ……. sadly its going to take patience to see the nwp come together on a closer theme and timing

note that the ICON12z looks similar to the ec 00z at day 8 so an ec run which looks a lot like its previous output actually wouldn't be a shock ……...although i felt the 12z's thus far had pulled the envelope back a bit from its eastern extent  

I was going to say there are a couple of almost crazy runs (as mad as that 920mbs 18z last night). I love how on no.17 we still end up mildish throughout, just goes to show you only need a small vortex fragment in the wrong place to cause problems 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Ramp said:

To be fair i’d be happy to see a flake at the moment, it feels like we’ve been on the cusp of something since mid Autumn.

Lets hope we are rewarded in the second half of winter.

TBF i never really bought into the cold December, except perhaps the last week when the SSW was forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

12z swingometers for January 25th are similar to previous runs, rather cold but not really exciting. Some colder runs give us hope though

image.thumb.png.bf181ac535379aeda9c21c81eb122014.png

So things in the longer range still up in the air although the PV to the NW is a prominent feature. Its a real shame I can't do as much of an analysis on the ECM as this.

Swingometers for January 20th seems to be either anticyclonic or a rather cold picture so still nothing to get excited about.... but it could be worse really.

image.thumb.png.71347feb6ad7e7da0520f336b20a771e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Burton in Kendal
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme will do
  • Location: Burton in Kendal
3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

For all the talk of bias in the models, I'm beginning to think there's a bias in them towards giving us winter nirvana in FI.

Simply incredibly high ratio of how often those FI charts promise compared to how often they deliver!

I suggested something very similar 2 winters ago:

|"Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17 

Steve Thexton replied to phil nw.'s topic in Model Discussion Archive

hahahaha feb1991, you could have posted that chart as a copy of 95% of the last 4 frames for every run this winter. I'm Only a novice on here but one thing I have learnt is that GFS is a joke beyond about 180hrs and much of the time that is generous! It does provide entertainment mind... even if very frustrating"

 I am a long time follower of this thread and although am frequently lost in the technicalities often put forward am incredibly grateful for the time and efforts given by 'some' of the more knowledgeable - cheers guys it is really appreciated by many on here.

It does seem 'Timmytour,' that someone has told GFS it's winter and it obliges 3 runs out of 4 dropping deep blues and purples post 240hrs across our neck of the woods because "it's winter" and there's a good chance it should be cold and it obliges!

What seems so unfortunate is that so much vitreole can emanate from some on what they seem to perceive as written in stone at 10 days +  

It would be fascinating to survey the number of posts since 1st November that started, or have the line equal or similar to, -  great outputs... "in 10 days time..."  Perhaps, if all only looked at all models up to 240hrs  the animosity between some and between one model or the other would be a little less tiresome.

I will stick my head down now for another couple of years - Happy snowballing!

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Look at the difference at T96 . 

ECM -973A5F5E-D34F-4664-96CD-73743C49FB6B.thumb.png.abb56bfabbc5881271a7480d5b5af516.pngF5B994E5-997F-480A-A4AA-144A52521F3D.thumb.png.668661947d75f7f76ab2938e09cd394a.png

 

GFSB62F13CD-181D-4A51-8EC4-B0E02266B023.thumb.png.2f49acba9da449a3552a26f322c00ec0.pngCB3F6C8F-1381-4B31-89A7-67AADDBBC4AC.thumb.png.467dc448bab7ad17171cc8f23b5d59e2.png

As @AppleUK 123 nicely showed earlier the GFS over the last 4 days of 12z runs it has progressively pushed the slider further and further west/ south, so with a couple of days left to go I expect it to be more inline with other models. Only needs another shunt of 200 miles!!! 

MNR

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What blasphemy, Fred! The UKMO following the GFS???

Throw me to the lions now!!

 

BFTP

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