Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[SLEETY]

fv3 has the correct pattern ,snow for most from this run,never doubt the new gfs

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If I had a pound for every GFS run past day ten which showed a great set up I’d be rich !

Until blocking is shown within day ten then it’s just some nice looking colours on a chart !

And even at day ten it then needs to count down to the more reliable timeframe . The verification stats past ten days aren’t even published because they’re so embarrassing .

Anyway moan over !

All we can do is look for trends and the GEFS FI looking consistently good:

 Control 

Edited January 14, 2019 by IDO

[snowice]

42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is the flattest at day 6 .

Still no support for its evolution of the low earlier on . The UKMO, GEM, ICON all disagree .

A few days ago it had the low clearing to the east of the UK, now it’s clearing about 400 miles further west !

Hardly inspiring much confidence !

 

Nothing is nailed till its nailed another  48hr and we should know.

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If I had a pound for every GFS run past day ten which showed a great set up I’d be rich !

Until blocking is shown within day ten then it’s just some nice looking colours on a chart !

And even at day ten it then needs to count down to the more reliable timeframe . The verification stats past ten days aren’t even published because they’re so embarrassing .

Anyway moan over !

Same problem every winter nick, whether it’s the lobe of death around Greenland or a scandi shortwave something always seem to be picked up as we get to high res that doesn’t show during low res output.

Particularly frustrating this time given all the signals we have in our favour it still doesn’t appear we can get lucky, it’s like going all in on a straight flush and getting beat, nightmare. Not all over yet though, but once the trend goes against us it always seems torturous trying to get it back

[snowice]

43 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

much better from gfs at last in fl,hope it continues this trend.

If it's wrong at 120 fi is wrong to. 

[Weather-history]

Looks as though GFS is finally sliding the low further south on each run 

Manchester mean ensemble 850hpas for midday 18th January

0Z run: -1.7C

06z run: -2.6C

12z run: -4.3C

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Same problem every winter nick, whether it’s the lobe of death around Greenland or a scandi shortwave something always seem to be picked up as we get to high res that doesn’t show during low res output.

Particularly frustrating this time given all the signals we have in our favour it still doesn’t appear we can get lucky, it’s like going all in on a straight flush and getting beat, nightmare. Not all over yet though, but once the trend goes against us it always seems torturous trying to get it back

Don’t give up hope ! We still have plenty of time and the background signals aren’t bad .

The GFS needs to come with a health warning ! Stick to max ten days and ignore the fantasy rubbish it spews out past that point . It will make model watching a lot less stressful for coldies in here.

[CSC]

I decided to sign up so I can also get involved in this weather discussion as I have been following the weather for some time and its modelled forecasts.

May I just add the GFS (P) has been forecasting some kind of snow event early next week (around Tuesday) for some time now. Even on the ECM it appears that the low pushes from the N/NW into the UK between hour 192 and 216. GFS (P) models this slightly earlier, but a similar idea and I think something to keep an eye on!

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Looks as though GFS is finally sliding the low further south on each run 

Manchester mean ensemble 850hpas for midday 18th January

0Z run: -1.7C

06z run: -2.6C

12z run: -4.3C

 

Before you know the damn thing will be in the channel or france!!

[weirpig]

low heights from a northerly into northern africa  impressive.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEFS 12Z loaded with blocking possibilities

     

       

[Weather-history]

GFS 12z runs  for midday Friday

10th Jan

11th Jan

12th Jan

13th Jan

14th Jan

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UkMO and GFS now meet up, I like the 12z, decent runs imo and very plausible.  Superb PV displacement.....snow is coming I’m sure 

BFTP

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 12z runs  for midday Friday

10th Jan

11th Jan

12th Jan

13th Jan

14th Jan

 

Quite a clear trend for a more oval low further west and south.

[ICE COLD]

The 12z para is a good run here is T240 . Not going any further I’m listening to @nick sussex . 

[phil nw.]

It's a messy pattern without northern heights but the sliders heading se across our locale are managing to bring the colder air further and further south and west as the days go by.

The UKMO shows the first one heading down towards Wales and the South west at the end of the week.With cold air around and low thicknesses it could well bring some snow interest a bit earlier than perhaps we expected a few days ago.

 

Still some mobility in the pattern so we are still prone to brief less cold sectors but really with the jet going further south it's mainly a setup with polar air around us for the majority of the time.

Even the GFS with it's tendency to push the pattern too far east at times is showing plenty of cold spilling south as we into week 2.If it corrects westwards as often does then we will see that cold block to the east modeled closer and more resistant to any modifying from the Atlantic.

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Looks as though GFS is finally sliding the low further south on each run 

Manchester mean ensemble 850hpas for midday 18th January

0Z run: -1.7C

06z run: -2.6C

12z run: -4.3C

 

Your database is a gold mine.. thanks Kev

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The 12z para is a good run here is T240 . Not going any further I’m listening to @nick sussex . 

Very funny , see don’t you feel better !

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Very funny , see don’t you feel better !

Yes but usually if you adopted that strategy in British winter time, whilst it would be sensible, it would also mean that you never get to see any decent charts.

[Timmytour]

For all the talk of bias in the models, I'm beginning to think there's a bias in them towards giving us winter nirvana in FI.

Simply incredibly high ratio of how often those FI charts promise compared to how often they deliver!

[tight isobar]

On 12/01/2019 at 19:17, tight isobar said:

A few snaps from the ops..

Regarding atlantic welling..

Diss-regard for a min the other out -ramifications..

On an-basic-raw/op- scale..

I think we know where we are going!!!

Slowly as things align..

The pesky az hp will become fruitful..

We have downwell-and alarming notions @the upper layers..

And clockwise momentum..

And forcing has us ..on the side of prop/welling charge..

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by tight isobar

[winterof79]

Updated fax for 12z Thursday

[kold weather]

12z GFS certainly has options, it's good without being great, but small changes would turn it into a great run.

However it's highly likely to be doing it's usually thing and over-doing the arctic cold coming down thus overdoing the lows, common bias even these days, so I suspect the 12z is still overdoing the lows.

Weather historys maps are interesting, clear to see the GFS has both been overdoing the low plus too far north, I fully expect the same to happen with other lows.

[SMU]

48 minutes ago, Runcible Spoon said:

No opinion yet from Mr Murr.

In essence, the models still show a multitude of possibilities for this weekend in terms of where will get rain/sleet/snow.

Could well be a wintry mix. Interesting ECM coming up in terms of direction of travel.

Rollercoaster continues...

Evening everyone-

Minima time available today but always lurking-

Firstly its nice to see the GFS getting a hard time as its really really struggling here- but remember I said sunday 24-36 hours & it would come aboard ! - The FV3 has finally landed & the GFS will arrive at the party- it Must... Probably 12z tomorrow.

So what party are we arriving it? 

My nerves & frustrations have been tempered today as we seen correction back west, & what comes with it is more influence from the continent -

The continental feed is crucial if anyone in the south / SE wants to see Snow -along any frontal boundary

The slider then - its on, whats it got to slide into? - The upper air will be about -5/-6c with lowish dewpoints, So there will likely be an area along the boundary of Wintry weather- 

Obvious caveats are

- The further North & East you are the better ( as long as you are in the PPN belt )

- Elevation makes a difference >150M ideally. 

- The frontal zone wont be that large -

Heres a plot of my thoughts ( also includes NI late Thurs as well )

 

Post this the little area of High pressure to our north east in the North sea will support cold uppers (-6c) moving back west which may well support snow when the altlantic dives that big storm South East ( See FV3)

Best

Steve

Edited January 14, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Spah1]

In the next 2/3 days ECM day 8/9/10 charts are going to reward everyone’s patience.

HLB will start appearing and snow chances will increase. 

I’m looking forward to using Euro 4 if I can still find where it is