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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

Wedges make sledges. Yes it’s in la la land but it looks nice 

2EC9C3B1-BC22-42CA-9E0E-4A21256C47CE.png

19FD7E36-7678-4A59-A0C0-9AF1E767EC8A.png

F947401E-37F8-42A6-A9B5-A2A5AB70FA67.png

06E8DB6A-A5AD-4ABB-9784-5FB4286D7FE7.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The difference is those charts are for this coming Sunday. I don't think many of the ensembles are showing those sort of charts for Sunday now. 

Yes they are and no they don't clearly there has been a delay.

gens-5-1-168.pnggens-19-1-168.png

For next Monday from the 06z Run.

Stuff changes.

 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The 12z op synoptically similar to the 06z control and the sort of charts we have been expecting from the downwelling and MJO forcing:

anim_qwo4.gif  anim_ldx2.gifanim_chg8.gif

Getting those chunks of Canadian vortex to discharge to the Euro trough looks like the catalyst for HLB'ing and some serious potential!

Just need to get this pattern far enough west so the transition is cold and snowy...

 

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Ooh er, missus? Could this be the long-yearned-for High-Latitude Block?:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.94d9a4a8fca19c4202e05332a9ff4a2b.pngimage.thumb.png.30b3954ecb24737b73271c8b454c5576.png 

Yes please!!!! image.thumb.png.628e4b2d6de8e85bc9c6ea694e0daeee.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS just beginning to realize the low will slide..

What a donkey of a model.

Has it?

looks like it hasn’t changed much - just running a bit further south than was showing yesterday .....

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Snow for most of the UK from the GFS12z ……...not sure what the moans are for 

Was about to say the same having just run the 12z through again,maybe it is the

Case that we don't have -15 uppers and 20 days of snow showing in the models

Well not yet anyway.

C.S

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Has it?

looks like it hasn’t changed much - just running a bit further south than was showing yesterday .....

There are quite a few options still on the GEFS 12z  at only T120 . Silly for day 5 . 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Tbh since Dec it's been like watching paint dry on the models ete.was pretty convinced mid January would be blast off but not to be.todays runs haven't been inspiring  but Tom may bring an upturn in fortunes.seems getting a decent cold is akin to getting Douglas bader to line dance!!!I still think any cold ete will come from the east-northeast , hopefully showing up this week

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Runcible Spoon Rookie

Runcible Spoon

Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Location: Hereford
Posted

No opinion yet from Mr Murr.

In essence, the models still show a multitude of possibilities for this weekend in terms of where will get rain/sleet/snow.

Could well be a wintry mix. Interesting ECM coming up in terms of direction of travel.

Rollercoaster continues...

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Was about to say the same having just run the 12z through again,maybe it is the

Case that we don't have -15 uppers and 20 days of snow showing in the models

Well not yet anyway.

C.S

I think that's the case but GFS 12z gives snow across the UK mid next week ( earlier further North )

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its correcting ...

Totally agree with u mate!!gfs para slides it further south and west aswell!!its doing the typical gfs thing of coming round slowly!!just compared this morning 00z 102 hour chart to this evenings 12z for the same time and it has defo moved further west together with the 850s!00z had 850 temps of 0 degrees into the midlands but now on the 12z we got close to -4 instead!!

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It cannot be wrong all the time

It normally is in these setups (the slider situation at the end of this week). 

Edited by Paul
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

FV3 showing much more promise, decent effort with slider at T108 and much better amplification at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.b1865f4ae6ccdcd151bd52dcf76ec387.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.caf1b0b2f014b8573f750a4addea33a3.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Para bringing a potent blast at 180ish  with much higher ridging towards greenland  edit  not sure if the para is of on one  but it is beautiful

image.thumb.png.436b432086e5464d53fc48257e1e262c.png

Edited by weirpig
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Looks to me like the Exeter 5/15 day forecast .:... getting colder with snow possible pretty well anywhere

not sure what else people are expecting ...

The big interest lies after 144 for me Blue...

144-192 is the period where the high gets flattened prior to the PV dropping SE..

Fasinating model watching..

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

If I had a pound for every GFS run past day ten which showed a great set up I’d be rich !

Until blocking is shown within day ten then it’s just some nice looking colours on a chart !

And even at day ten it then needs to count down to the more reliable timeframe . The verification stats past ten days aren’t even published because they’re so embarrassing .

Anyway moan over !

Edited by nick sussex
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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

The GFS p looking very interesting much more amplified at 204hrs

Screenshot_20190114-172540.png

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

The big interest lies after 144 for me Blue...

144-192 is the period where the high gets flattened prior to the PV dropping SE..

Fasinating model watching..

Bang on, get to the weekend and after  it looks very interesting which is pretty much what C Fawkes was eluding to yesterday

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Lampostwatcher Seasoned

Lampostwatcher

Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
Posted

Interesting GFS 12z

  Snow a real possibility in 9 days time for the uk 

basically what the met office experts are seeing could be great timing if it happens

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ghoneym Community Regular

ghoneym

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
Posted

Regarding GFS output, I would have a read of this. Its still relevant. The government shutdown is affecting it, no doubt in that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c917a9b7b0ee

I would take the GFS and the FV3 with a very large rich of salt and on to compare long term trends, and even at that I would say don't trust it.

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