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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could be 'interesting' come late Thursday into Friday? On the subject of 'who wins', who cares: the weather's gotta do what the weather's gotta do!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Well the low is further west on the UKM so the colder air will be to. The direction of travel beyond day 6 is clear but not sure there is no snow to be had from the UKM chart.

There would be from the first slider but only over hills in the North and East and would soon melt as the next trough bring in milder uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Whilst there are differences, surely the weather at the surface will be the same? Cold rain for most away from the hills and North Eastern areas of Britain?

Snow event for some little bit further west were in action.

UW96-21 (2).gif

UW96-7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

GFS pretty consistent today.6-z and 12z wise.poor for us coldies but its what it is

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wouldn’t be making any assumptions of warm sectors - with cold air following from the wnw, we may see occlusions headed se into slack flow 

ukmo day 5 has reasonably low uppers and a continental flow 

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GFS showing just that

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, swfc said:

GFS pretty consistent today.6-z and 12z wise.poor for us coldies but its what it is

A contiuation of that slider backing West with its uppers a few miles each run could at least see a few more fruits on the tree by weeks end.

After that.........????

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

could be a stellar fl coming up for what’s it worth,and snow from the slider for some,nightmare  forecasting coming up for  the pros regarding where snow falls or doesn’t later this week,as is nearly always the case for the U.K.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The day 6 outputs are closer in agreement in terms of overall pattern but how they get there still differs . The UKMO is still more amplified and there’s still a chance of some snow as the shortwave energy slides se before hand .

The UKMO also has the sharper troughing over southern Greenland which could be important moving forward.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

what a run for the skiing industry,blizzards over high ground up North ,maybe lower down too in heavier showers.

Highlands joining  Austria in too much snow if this run is near the mark,conditions at 4000ft ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Where do you think all that energy is heading?

Yep it just need a few more coins lol. The Vortex looks like sliding down our slug. We might not even need Northern blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Where do you think all that energy is heading?

Couple of days ago we had these sorts of ensembles appearing within the same ensemble suit  for day 10, now we are left looking at charts like that, any way you look at it, that’s rubbish!

Not to say it’s 100% correct but at this current time it’s a disappointment, and it’s clear the models were underplaying the energy around Greenland and were too keen on dispersing that vortex lobe

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GFS 12z brings rain and milder air back by Friday across the SW then by the early hours of Saturday the centre of the low is just off south Pembrokeshire, behind it a somewhat cooler airflow with some further showers, wintry in places, at this stage high pressure builds again by Sunday though to give a drier day for many. 

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Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Couple of days ago we had these sorts of ensembles appearing within the same ensemble suit  for day 10, now we are left looking at charts like that, any way you look at it, that’s rubbish!

Not to say it’s 100% correct but at this current time it’s a disappointment, and it’s clear the models were underplaying the energy around Greenland and were too keen on dispersing that vortex lobe

79CFCF61-9820-4E93-9D04-3B91E0B1E37C.png

9792EDDB-320B-4FAB-BBF3-9B3849D242F3.png

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We are still getting those Ensembles So what has changed?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

We are still getting those Ensembles So what has changed?

The difference is those charts are for this coming Sunday. I don't think many of the ensembles are showing those sort of charts for Sunday now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

We are still getting those Ensembles So what has changed?

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Ensembles haven't changed much, only a few ensembles are following the OP.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The apparent regional strat-trop forcing of higher heights just N and NE of the UK by the start of next week has all but vanished now with just a hint of it from UKMO... seems it, ECM and GEM all imprinted it too fast. I did say a couple of days ago that the speed of it was surprising to me!

Could be that the lower-stratospheric ridge will actually set in a day or two later and aid in driving the imported cold trough right down into Europe and set up a bitter easterly.

GFS 12z suspiciously lacking in that aspect. Better effort with the N. America - N. Atlantic pattern though; just a bit more sharpening of the troughs and ridges needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

If you live above 300m in northern UK next week, you could well be buried. Think Buxton... wouldn’t rule out a foot. Elsewhere snow is possible even to lower levels at times, major storm being forecast on the 12z op. Whatever happens it’s looking a lot more interesting than what’s been on offer so far this winter. Chin up coldies 

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