Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The chances of a widespread snow event and decent cold spell between now and around the 5th - 10th feb.

Thanks for the reply. The models haven't been zoning in on any widespread snow event or cold 'spell' and now are backtracking..? It was just a potential slider.

Also anything into FI is more of the same, with a strong Azores High dictating the pattern. 

Edited by Lloyds32
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
11 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm afraid I can't winter, sorry

I take it from what you saw the signal was still for a colder scenario with the Euro trough hence the "Giddy Aunt"

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

with the anomaly charts have any of them shown lower heights in the Azores mid Atlantic area ? until this starts being seen you have to wonder if we have any chance of cold , the Azores high is constantly nosing in ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few posts hidden, Just 'Model' discussion in here please.

Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

At no point has the model output shown a plunge into the deep freeze and a snowfest. It has always been a downward trend in temperatures and a gradual increase in wintry potential over a fairly long period of time, and that remains the case. The up and down mood in here is due to people getting hung up on and sucked in by individual models and charts.

If you qualify that statement with "apart from in FI" then I would agree with you!

It is amazing how easily the latter reaches of FI seem to locate our dream scenarios, in ways that T96-T144 output seems to find nigh on impossible!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking forward to some decent 12zs...

Just checked a tweet in that thread and backs up what im thinking regarding mid term..

Hang on in there coldies!

Getting to the stage NW when a uptick on the outputs showing some consistency at least before months end!!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

So this is how i see it panning out...still

Much as knocks alluded to earlier on ECM 50 mb

Major Euro trough in our vicinity by 24th 

Here is ECM Moyenne

GEFS Moyenne 

CFS Daily

GEM control

 

Screenshot_20190114-135845_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190114-134712_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190114-140229_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190114-140415_Chrome.jpg

 

Overall Northern hemispheric profile not far off this

ECH1-240.gif

Plenty of cold / very cold air to tap into and copious chances of snow events in a very unstable set up.

Obviously the further North and East the better but with scope for rapid improvements to come thereafter

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Only just seen the 06Z. I haven't viewed each ensemble member but im disappointed with the Iceland SLP mean. Rather than increasing with each run we have seen a drop of around 8mb from 1018mb to 1010mb.

prmslReyjavic.png

Basically the chance of blocking to the N has decreased for the end of Jan. However this is only one run and shall await the 12Zs.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
43 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Super Massive Post

Excellent Post KW, ideal for newbs and a friendly reminder to all just how quickly things can and do change...sometimes even for the better.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

Onwards, upwards and downwards goes the rollercoaster it seems and one or two nerves getting a little frayed because we're not seeing storm force easterlies with -20c uppers or 1070MB Greenland HP cells at T+6.

The signal for the trough to disrupt SE into NW Europe has been there for a while and the 06Z Control was a very good run for cold fans after a pretty decent set of 00Z output to be honest.

06Z Parallel keeps the theme of "cold zonality" while 06Z OP has disappointed many as it seems to default back to an Atlantic-based regime (wow, GFS reverting to an Atlantic regime, that has never happened !!)

One or two comments on the Azores HP and some seemingly wanting it to "do one" (whatever that means).

The Azores HP is of course a vital ingredient in the progression toward cold. Ridging north or north east it can re-enforce existing HP cells and indeed its presence can help maintain lower heights in the Med which help HP evolution to our NE.

The problem to this observer seems to be the amount of energy in the northern arm of the jet - this may be (one hopes) a final convulsion as the downwelling from the SSW goes through the Canadian Lobe. We need to see that lobe migrate ideally west or south west into Canada to allow the amplification downstream but the sheer volume of cold air is energising cyclogenesis so we simply can't catch a break.

06Z Control shows what can happen:

152397372_06ZControlT300140119.thumb.png.046d7380df4d9084e9a863e17a41b673.png

The Canadian HP moves NE into Greenland rather than E or SE into the Atlantic which then forces the PV away. This is the break we need.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

As a fan of all things extreme weather wise,the last month has been a great cure for insomnia.

The 'limpet' High that has been floating around our locale since December 23rd has been hard to view other than a month of winter wasted.

A holding position for UK cold was a more positive view, the good it has done us at this stage seems to be the cold pool drawn down to our East.

It may still have to be viewed in a positive light if we can get the NW to SE track of unsettled conditions heralded by the models into next week, as largely we would still have the cold to tap into to our East.

The next step has to be the movement of our winds from NW to NE or East after the NW flow to draw in what is left of our 'holding position' HP cold to our East. 

Simple really, how an extreme weather fan tries to rationalise this last month!

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
58 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

And with the MJO looking like possibly heading back toward / through phase 6 / 7 by then that could also help aid blocking (again I am only going off my limited knowledge on the MJO and also might need to factor in some lag time)

combphase_noCFSsmall.thumb.gif.8ac3de13821e9a8d9df4b76ed9d11962.gif (some of the other MJO forecasts look a bit more uncertain / slower to go toward those phases ATM)

 

      

Great post, thank you. The MJO chart is interesting, and could explain part of the uncertainty that has been introduced in recent runs. Until very recently, the MJO forecast was to meander through the COD and then emerge late in phase 5 around the 21st. Now, forecasts are point to emergence in phase 4 or even late phase 3 which is not so favourable for blocking in our region. Phase 4 generally supports lower height anomalies towards Iceland/S Greenland, Phase 5 less so. It's not until we get into phase 6 and particularly 7 and 8 that we see support for blocking to our North. Of course, this may well be overridden by the SSW and consequent effects on the PV.

Overall, the background signals are there, and we are still heading to a colder regime from the 21st (perhaps a little earlier), but not the snowmageddan that some are hoping for at this stage! This is no February 2018 event with -15 850s marching from the East; it was always forecast to be a slow-burner initally with troughs disrupting SE on a NW flow with increasing chances of catching some snow if the path was just right. We have to wait a little longer for blocking, and this will not necessarily be picked up on NWP models (particularly the operational) past the 10 day ranges (GFS I'm looking at you).

Whichever way you cut it, we are getting colder; just temper the expectations for now!

 

Addit: Found the MJO chart I had from a few days ago. You can see how the forecast has changed (on the GFS at least). Given the GFS signal for a move into phase 4 and 5 we shouldn't be too surprised if it is showing less blocking (even wedges). This is not to say that it is correct of course!

 

MJO10012019.png

Edited by WhiteFox
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

ICON 12z not a great start, low is slightly deeper and a tad further North. Haven't reached the important frames yet tho.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ICON 12z not a great start, low is slightly deeper and a tad further North. Haven't reached the important frames yet tho.

Actually at 84 hours its pretty much the same so not a bad start!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Better icon at 120+ .better ridging in atlantic and towards Iceland.close to a slack easterly here but a big ask?

Edited by swfc
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Different on the ICON 12z at 120h onwards  trough seems to be still attached to the diving low   will it make any difference??.

image.thumb.png.7e74ff2bbac005653a2c574dfb30ca1d.png

Edited by weirpig
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

ICON developing a small wedge of heights towards Iceland, will it be enough to drop the low south??? 

Looks a bit of a mess to be honest 

Screenshot_20190114-152503.png

Edited by seabreeze86
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...