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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 hour ago, knocker said:

This morning's ecm 50mb geopotential Ht chart has a familiar ring to it. Aleutian low, Alaskan ridge into high pressure over the Pole and two vortex lobes norther Canada and southern Europe. Oh my giddy aunt

 

Hi Knocks can you post the ECM  50 mb geo chart please.

Cheers

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Unless I’m missing something between day 8-10 (not out further than that yet) is just a cool NW flow, nothing at low levels from that flow.

I am torn between both of your posts here because both are valid to a certain extent, it would be very snowy with blizzards for parts of scotland and higher ground in N.England but no countrywide snow event on offer, however i doubt you would just call this cool and not cold if you were out in this.

image.thumb.png.170ad04f24202a7f961679424386a86a.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

No positive spin from me I’m afraid, all goes Pete tong in FI. Fingers crossed this is a rogue run and the more respected GFSp looks different...

4C72A99E-CC3D-4A2D-8AEB-6A5F0652CAD8.png

BDDEB4E4-3188-4C1F-8B7E-D6395D742890.png

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The Azores ridging days 5 to 8 is the problem to be resolved - either it means the pattern is too far east as it gets flattened or it throws up a wedge ahead of the jet streak or it ..... well it could be responsible for pretty well anything by days 9/10 re the trough 

the spread on the eps for the Canadian trough dropping in was v wide on the 00z ...

As far I can see, with my little experience, the Azores high is going absolutely nowhere and will influence our weather for a number of weeks yet.

People keep posting anomaly charts showing the high linking up to the Greenland area, but every chart I see shows this scenario as very very weak. With the main strong anomaly being located in the Azores region.

Nearer to time, Atlantic NW/W winds with rain and wintry weather over high ground.

There has been so much scrutiny over a potential sliding low, which in reality would't deliver much during and post if it did.

Edited by Lloyds32
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

how can you take anything the gfs seriously,when it’s miles different from the other models st the end of the week.

The problem is we do not see the ECM members so we cannot draw worthwhile conclusions. With the GFS we can. Look at the D10 GEM ensembles and nominal support for the ECM op, in fact, a wild array of journeys:

gens_panel_crh6.png

Much like the GEFS. That is why FI starts around D6. Don't rule anything in or out; some outcome not even seen so far may be the reality come D10! What seems sure is that the PV will drain towards a Euro trough as that will be a conduit for lower heights due to the NH profile. The UK, as usual, is on the cusp of snow/cold with such a setup and any trend for the pattern to push east reduces the effect on us. I see no alternative for phase #1 of the downwelling so we have to hope we get at least something out of this transition.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I am torn between both of your posts here because both are valid to a certain extent, it would be very snowy with blizzards for parts of scotland and higher ground in N.England but no countrywide snow event on offer, however i doubt you would just call this cool and not cold if you were out in this.

image.thumb.png.170ad04f24202a7f961679424386a86a.png

Yeah Feb, it would but not that unusual for Scotland and high ground in the north, I was merely saying that for the majority this run isn’t snowy, with Atlantic modification you very rarely get proper snowy NW’lies that deliver to the many and not just the few.

All hogwash at this point anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, DCee said:

Just for clarification there is no snow showing in the models for low levels in England for the next 10 days. Maybe some lying snow in hills and mountains above 1000ft. 

Not strictly true 

6364916C-7087-4426-AE92-EA95A63A9C37.thumb.jpeg.4a492e9620f02ca09fd42d4ccbcb4ac9.jpeg

Anyway, the single cluster showing days 6/7 shows the problem and the six from them till day 15 backs it up 

Shannon is back !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Just moved a bunch of posts (and replies to them) into the banter thread as they're better suited there:

Please consider which thread you're using before posting. And fwiw, any 'winters over' type posts will automatically either be moved to banter or removed, it's January! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

No positive spin from me I’m afraid, all goes Pete tong in FI. Fingers crossed this is a rogue run and the more respected GFSp looks different...

4C72A99E-CC3D-4A2D-8AEB-6A5F0652CAD8.png

BDDEB4E4-3188-4C1F-8B7E-D6395D742890.png

Wouldn't worry about stuff that far out just at the moment. FI starts at the end of this week and what happens with the slider sequence very much dictates what follows.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If the GFS is typical (of NWPMs) between Days 10 and 16 - I see no reason for thinking otherwise - the fact that there's still no cold, blocked signal whatsoever, must be cause for concern? I wonder what GLOSEA and MOGREPS are predicting...

image.thumb.png.78632488b7c06559f606b2f74e549d31.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Certainly an uptick on the ECM ENS

image.thumb.png.9800eabb230f4f3da1740baef0431c60.png

Not a disastrous set by any means, but this started yesterday and has grown, so it is a concern and will need watching.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The 6z certainly advertising many cold PM shots into the run which would deliver plenty of snow for high ground especially in the North. Looks to be a very messy run into Wk2, So I expect plenty of changes over the next few days /runs what with SSW continuing to downwhell.

784683592_viewimage(40).thumb.png.ffd366d49a819e63cbce59302c644f09.png1349853353_viewimage(41).thumb.png.fde17c9aae56324d576e55b737d34588.png1694234816_viewimage(42).thumb.png.d134f0d98f2ae4d631506e0039845db1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Snow for most at 198h on the gfs  with cold uppers and a brisk north westerly  

image.thumb.png.d71dc1d1a923986399f96588460a9a6b.png

Without sounding IMBY that would be less than half of the population unfortunately. Although fortunately it's likely to be wrong at that range seeeing as the GFS has been flip flopping about as it does so often. Though I wish the hilly northerners a Happy snow hunt. As already alluded to it's the end of  January and February that's the main interest for the vast population masses further south 

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

The 6z certainly advertising many cold PM shots into the run which would deliver plenty of snow for high ground especially in the North. Looks to be a very messy run into Wk2, So I expect plenty of changes over the next few days /runs what with SSW continuing to downwhell.

784683592_viewimage(40).thumb.png.ffd366d49a819e63cbce59302c644f09.png1349853353_viewimage(41).thumb.png.fde17c9aae56324d576e55b737d34588.png1694234816_viewimage(42).thumb.png.d134f0d98f2ae4d631506e0039845db1.png

Indeed PM. We also see a reversal of U-winds at 50hpa for D10, which could be significant. Although that is a little bit above my pay grade, so perhaps someone else can pick that up.

image.thumb.png.0e3304c15df66b5ab0a2841b3c7dbbf4.png 

EDIT: D9 now as that's yesterday's chart.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Certainly an uptick on the ECM ENS

image.thumb.png.9800eabb230f4f3da1740baef0431c60.png

Not a disastrous set by any means, but this started yesterday and has grown, so it is a concern and will need watching.

YEs, could do with that trending the other way and starting straight away with the 12z, however, look at the very cold clustering, with max's below 0 for London! - looks to have actually gone lower that cluster, its just that there's more mild crap in there as well to balance this out.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The Control at T300 (I know!) is what I was expecting in the last week of January:

gensnh-0-1-312.thumb.png.4217be60d1cf65ce6aaf1c4c0bd17a90.png

Arctic High, Pacific and Atlantic ridges with associated troughs...

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

NetWx-MR take on Thu/Fri/Sat Snow risk.

1057366800_viewimage(43).thumb.png.00768b132b4a3022605ed8a757b451b1.png2028091698_viewimage(44).thumb.png.f2afb2562d264a4ce410a39ae82e4252.png2087419517_viewimage(45).thumb.png.4be6ff991b9e454fbe9799db584717d3.png

 

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