Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Man With Beard]

Clusters 12Z at D15;

5 out of 6 clusters still in the game for  ridge development to the NW

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

Seems like a good bet Crewe.

We at least know there will be some mobility for a good while yet, it all depends on whether we can stay on the cold side of any sliding/disrupting Atlantic lows - the devil is in the detail as they say.

Could be a damp squib until we get some proper blocking rather than transient ridges or we could get lucky and get a snow fest, the smart money would be on something in between.

[Mark Parsons]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

A very ordinary build up to winter weather I would say.......

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just for context the 18z GFS low at roughly 216hrs would be the 15th deepest EVER recorded winter low pressure. Should give an idea of just how extreme the op is.

Synoptic extremes do happen occasionally, but they usually have a few more things going for them than we have at the moment...

Well we're going to see a densely cold profile of air cross the N Atlantic sector quite possibly at some point down the line. As Bluearmy says, it's within the envelope and remains a possibility, however unlikely. 

[TEITS]

Remain very pleased with the output today.

My advice to members is this. An ever increasing signal of the holy grail i.e blocking towards Greenland and towards the NE (Svalbard/Scandi) is gathering momentum towards the end of the month. The 26th of Jan seems to be a date standing out for me. Prior to this any snowfall should be considered a bonus.

BTW the Iceland SLP mean keeps increasing. We have gone from 1010mb to 1020. Probably start reaching 1030mb by the end of the week!

 

 

[Mark Parsons]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Seems like a good bet Crewe.

We at least know there will be some mobility for a good while yet, it all depends on whether we can stay on the cold side of any sliding/disrupting Atlantic lows - the devil is in the detail as they say.

Could be a damp squib until we get some proper blocking rather than transient ridges or we could get lucky and get a snow fest, the smart money would be on something in between.

Generally the knife edge scenarios produce the most wide spread snow...battlegrounds with solid HLB and active weather systems bumping into it from the west or south as could be the case, as is the nature of the beast with SSW's anything could happen...... 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Mark Parsons

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

Agree, although i don't think the mild periods will actually be mild as such, they just might mean a wintry mix so yes - some rain mixed in, btw the strat charts now (T0) do still allow a window down the line for Greeny height rise but you always seem to just get that bit of residual trop vortex which may push it more icelandic, i want  to see another beast long term but the reason i wan't to go the Greeny / slider route is i don't want to have the scandi high as last chance saloon and if it fails then there is nowhere to go, just feel that if we get a greeny, the fact that the strat split wasn't far and wide might actually eventually play into our hands as there might be enough forcing from the canadian segment to prevent what happened last year with an abrupt end to a stonking but short spell.

[supernova]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL 18Z is  SNOWMEGEDDON  DRUNK.

Dont even know how to spell it lol..

Fixed that spelling for you @northwestsnow  Honestly GFS is on one this week. Not that any of us have a crystal ball but seriously the swings from run to run make even the Brexit negotiations look stable. Let’s see what rhe Para has to  offer...little change up to 96... potentially slightly less progressive?

[shaky]

By the way control follows the op in every way!!!!

[law of averages]

2 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Look, I'm not saying this kind of thing will be instant, it's a slow gradual process, evolution and nature always is. The MODEL OUTPUT over the last couple of years in winter has been great, we have had some really exiting modeling. However there can be no denial that things are warming up, the evidence is everywhere. 

Sorry I disagree BIG time... so what's happening in EUROPE or the STATES eastern side nearly every yr... is GW/CC... sorry no chance, I'll lose my balloon knot before any of that lol

[ICE COLD]

The gfs 18z op has not got a lot of support in the ensembles on the sliding low . In fact there are so many different options. 

Edited January 13, 2019 by ICE COLD

[Paul]

Can we take this back to the models please - there's the climate discussion area for that side of things.

[MattStoke]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

The gfs 18z op has not got a lot of support in the ensembles on the sliding low . In fact there are some many different options. 

No support from the GFSP 18z either. No point looking at these things though. The old and soon to be discontinued GFS can’t possibly be wrong, apparently

[coldwinter]

Fair to say the GFSP much closer to the UKMO and ECM than the GFS

[Cheshire Freeze]

The mean at 168 hrs is FLAT

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well we're going to see a densely cold profile of air cross the N Atlantic sector quite possibly at some point down the line. As Bluearmy says, it's within the envelope and remains a possibility, however unlikely. 

I was wrong, it actually gets to about 925mbs. Making it roughly joint 7th deepest ever recorded such low pressure.

This is just the GFS throwing a ridiculous dartboard low again, it's 50mbs deeper then any other model out there!

The fact the GFS is making such a strong low suggests it's not seeing the same thing as the other models which make it boardline trash...

Edited January 13, 2019 by kold weather

[Mucka]

GFSp sticking with the slider

GFSp/GFS op

[ICE COLD]

To add to my post here are the first 10 ensembles. Can’t do em all 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The mean at 168 hrs is FLAT

It is a bit of a downgrade, im more concerned about 210 onwards but that doesn't look as good as the 12z.

[Ice Day]

GFSP at 138 is very similar to the 144 ECM

GFSP  ECM 

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Ice Day

[Met4Cast]

@CreweCold still think the GFS has the slider low nailed? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Starting to recover nicely though now.

[kold weather]

Don't read too much into the mean guys, especially with a really slack pattern at 144hrs, the mean will not show a huge amount of use. Best unfortunately looking at all the individual runs and their solutions.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

@CreweCold still think the GFS has the slider low nailed? 

Regardless, i'm sceptical what difference it'll make mid term. Dirge mid term. Aligned to GEFS mean I posted. The interest will come much later than this-

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The mean at 168 hrs is FLAT

Arguably So was the ecm.....

which ended at 240 like this

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by karlos1983