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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 240.... 

image.thumb.png.d9dfbfed5c0511dbb68225bcb2d3c7d0.png

Now if that storm forms as shown, I will eat my own trousers with gravy!

Lol First Atlantic Hurricane of the Season - Goofus is on the Wacky Backy

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Posted
  • Location: Shaw, oldham
  • Location: Shaw, oldham
38 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Sea ice extent is overall in an emergency state. No doubt about that. 

image.thumb.png.ac99f3bc1919f8a9de7016e7d466a789.png

the slight recovery the website refers too is, in my opinion is due to the current SSW. The warming reduces the chances of PSC clouds (ozone destroying clouds) forming due to the stratosphere temperatures being relatively warm for an unusually prolonged period and allows ozone to reform.

 

image.thumb.png.5831b59ad07e188cc89bd9e4319bd82c.png  image.thumb.png.76c4e197921b6039c4d66a474a0378fe.png

A healthy ozone layer reduces solar input hence the chances of ice cap recovery. Now bear in mind we are at or very close too the solar minimum and the fact we are looking at "4th and 5th lowest levels of polar ice" the next 20 years look bleak. Sorry to put a downer on things but we need to enjoy these colder and snowy spells as they are modelled because one day it may be a thing of the past

. Your last comment, just the same as that PROFESSOR... who in the early 2000s said ' would there be SNOW in western Europe '... this really ticks me off, patterns and cycles yes... GW/CC NO

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 240.... 

image.thumb.png.d9dfbfed5c0511dbb68225bcb2d3c7d0.png

Now if that storm forms as shown, I will eat my own trousers with gravy!

It’s feasible .......unlikely to be exactly like that but I would say it’s within the enevople ........

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

You could say that about ANY model output at day 10 in a high uncertainty scenario... 

Cheer up Crewe, just a bit of fun.  

This run went off the rails so early, anything after 120 is for the bin.  And if I'm wrong I will happily come on here and hold my hands up!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL 18Z is SNOWMAGGEDON!!

Dont even know how to spell it lol..

It certainly is!

4B471540-B6F8-4090-BF42-9950E1C176CC.png

7EFD16EB-C7D6-4888-A73D-CF294FE6F7B9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Don't understand that. We are talking about the t96 slider low and gfs is not deviating in its output right now. Blend between gfs and Ecm is the form horse tmw. What comes after is anyone's guess.

18z ICON didn’t deviate, either.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

I dont know whether to laugh or be worried  

I like snow but i need to earn a living too.

I honestly haven't seen anything like it.

From T216 onwards. 

Gfs mistake or fact .

19012418_1318.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s feasible .......unlikely to be exactly like that but I would say it’s within the enevople ........

That has to be literally the extreme end though, a 930mbs low seems rather extreme give n no model is even within 40mbs at that point.. 

Gem is at 975

ECM is at 975

GFS 18z is at...928mbs roughly...

Worth noting despite ramping the PV up as much as is possible in this setup, it STILL gets yo the right place in the end.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s feasible .......unlikely to be exactly like that but I would say it’s within the enevople ........

Well, I better stock up on Bisto then!!!

GFSP is running, hopefully that will bring some sanity back to affairs?

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 240.... 

image.thumb.png.d9dfbfed5c0511dbb68225bcb2d3c7d0.png

Now if that storm forms as shown, I will eat my own trousers with gravy!

I'm looking forward to that. Make sure they're heavy tweed

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes but we're conflating near term synoptics and fantasy islands that chop and change on every model. 

The original point was related to the 96 hours juncture. 

I wasn't responding to any particular post.

It has a chance of being right about the slider but the rest of its output is all over the place. 

The first charts I posted were 168 which were massively different, hardly deep FI is it?

The second post was just highlighting how deep those earlier differences were.

I am always saying we should not discount output but when the Op runs are so divergent which one do you put all your blind faith in being right?

I would always take the Euros over GFS in the early time-frames so I would much rather take UKMO and ECM over GFS with the slider but wouldn't by any means discount GFS on it not sliding and crossing the UK, I would doubt it though.

I guess we can separate the slider event and later output but if the slider happens as per the Euros GFS later output will be wrong as will the Euros if GFS turns out to be correct. 

What is odd to me is that GFS actually started to model the slider and stayed with it until got closer in then suddenly dropped it, Meanwhile the parallel that was late on board is now modelling a slider.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I'm looking forward to that. Make sure they're heavy tweed

I'm going to burn the corduroys!  Well, back to the models (sorry mods), the GFSP is fairly consistent at 96 vs the 12z

image.thumb.png.07093fa1d18a43d1bb260fb93697a486.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS has no clue, the difference between 12z and 18 z is laughable..

Hope its had a change of clothes with it for the walk of shame in the morning..

No it’s going to be stripped naked for that after all it’s for the scrap soon anyway

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

All is well that ends well.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.b5bc865baf5a2cc2ab790d17452669bb.png

there is still plenty of time left this winter

night.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I'm going to burn the corduroys!  Well, back to the models (sorry mods), the GFSP is fairly consistent at 96 vs the 12z

image.thumb.png.07093fa1d18a43d1bb260fb93697a486.png

Less of a circular shape to the low maybe

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You could say that about ANY model output at day 10 in a high uncertainty scenario... 

Anyone expecting an op run of any modelling product to nail a pattern in a volatile atmospheric base state at day 10 is living in cloud cuckoo land to be frank. 

There is a difference between nailing something down to the shortwave detail and showing the complete opposite pattern to the last run by day 8, ie deep trough where last run  there was a very strong ridge

What would be cookoo land would be tossing a coin and saying either one of those is correct.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

If we get lucky we could even see a brutal airmass advected west round the back door...

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is it? 

According to meteociel the UKMO is running at 1.25 and the GFS 1.0

ECM trumps them both at 0.5

I think that is for chart  plotting purposes, nothing to do with the size of the grid blocks the models run with.  The resolutions  that the various models run with is available, look it up if you want to. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

Well I think we can all agree we'd be happy with that!?

image.thumb.png.91a1b86d0995a8ead8cca64c8c5b64b1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

Quite plausible, the only small question is what will the weather be like between now and then 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Just for context the 18z GFS low at roughly 216hrs would be the 15th deepest EVER recorded winter low pressure. Should give an idea of just how extreme the op is.

Synoptic extremes do happen occasionally, but they usually have a few more things going for them than we have at the moment...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Mucka said:

Quite plausible, the only small question is what will the weather be like between now and then 

My bet would be on alternating colder and milder interludes...just like the Metoffice have stated. This before a more pronounced cold period.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

FWIW, the GFS 18z ends where, in my opinion, we're likely to end up late Jan into early Feb. Mid Atlantic heights arching into Scandi and troughing dropping S through the N continent. 

If we get lucky we could even see a brutal airmass advected west round the back door...

Cool. Hanging around for the parallel? 

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
18 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

. Your last comment, just the same as that PROFESSOR... who in the early 2000s said ' would there be SNOW in western Europe '... this really ticks me off, patterns and cycles yes... GW/CC NO

Look, I'm not saying this kind of thing will be instant, it's a slow gradual process, evolution and nature always is. The MODEL OUTPUT over the last couple of years in winter has been great, we have had some really exiting modeling. However there can be no denial that things are warming up, the evidence is everywhere. 

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