Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Met4Cast]

GFS remains very much the odd one out.. 

vs UKMO/ECM

Closed low as per GFS or slider disrupted low as per EC/UKMO.. 

 

[Ice Day]

I think we can safely say this run is for the bin.  Not because it is/isn't showing what we want, but it's so far away from the 12z it's untrue.  Look at the differences at 174:

18z  12z 

Ridiculous really. Anyone trying to prove their point with the pub run is going to be misguided I reckon.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

The long range torpedo vs t96 gfs Greenland shortwave picked up by an 18z gfs, which blew all cold out the water is the best gfs example we can give mate. 2015?

Absolutely. Added to the fact people mention the UKMO which stands 0 chance of picking up details like shortwave around the Greenland area because of its sub par resolution. 

[Jason M]

Odd day really. Things started positive but the charts have gently downgraded through the day. This GFS run is just a bit meh. High pressure continuing to sit just to the SW of Ireland out to 180.

Hopefully the FV3 will be better.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Sea ice extent is overall in an emergency state. No doubt about that. 

the slight recovery the website refers too is, in my opinion is due to the current SSW. The warming reduces the chances of PSC clouds (ozone destroying clouds) forming due to the stratosphere temperatures being relatively warm for an unusually prolonged period and allows ozone to reform.

 

  

A healthy ozone layer reduces solar input hence the chances of ice cap recovery. Now bear in mind we are at or very close too the solar minimum and the fact we are looking at "4th and 5th lowest levels of polar ice" the next 20 years look bleak. Sorry to put a downer on things but we need to enjoy these colder and snowy spells as they are modelled because one day it may be a thing of the past

Wrong thread, a few arguments against your pov

 

BFTP

[Mucka]

The fact is GFS output cannot be taken at face value whatever the reason.

The are 12z and 18z 168 hours. If we are going to say GFS might be right then which GFS? 

When op run to Op run diverge so much and both of those are in contradiction with the other main models then surely it makes sense to follow the Euros for now?

[Weathizard]

Back to square one  Typical GFS, senile model needs to be put in a home!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Jason M said:

Odd day really. Things started positive but the charts have gently downgraded through the day. This GFS run is just a bit meh. High pressure continuing to sit just to the SW of Ireland out to 180.

Hopefully the FV3 will be better.

 

As I explained earlier though, it's not strange at all if you realise where the main vortices have set up post SSW. 

One centre over the Canadian sector and one over Scandinavia. It leaves HP nowhere to go for the time being, except for mid Atlantic at a suppressed latitude! 

[Nights King]

7 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Sea ice extent is overall in an emergency state. No doubt about that. 

the slight recovery the website refers too is, in my opinion is due to the current SSW. The warming reduces the chances of PSC clouds (ozone destroying clouds) forming due to the stratosphere temperatures being relatively warm for an unusually prolonged period and allows ozone to reform.

 

  

A healthy ozone layer reduces solar input hence the chances of ice cap recovery. Now bear in mind we are at or very close too the solar minimum and the fact we are looking at "4th and 5th lowest levels of polar ice" the next 20 years look bleak. Sorry to put a downer on things but we need to enjoy these colder and snowy spells as they are modelled because one day it may be a thing of the past

I remember the BBC saying something along those lines in the 90's 

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wonderful to have such a difference of opinion!!

Truth is, no-one knows which model is correct..

PS GFS will take the walk of shame in the morning..

I do find the posts proclaiming the GFS as the best at modelling these situations bizzare though. In all the years I have been model watching, it has almost always performed the poorest in such setups. It almost always blows up low pressure systems too much and pushes things too far east.

Also, it’s not even handling the situation the same as it’s last run just 6 hours ago, and it’s different to the upgraded version of itself. 

Of course, it could end up right this time. People saying it is definitely right and can’t possibly be wrong are talking nonsense though.

In any case, the wintry interest lays beyond that system, so the handling of it isn’t really important. I just find some people’s posts on the matter to be very odd.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Absolutely. Added to the fact people mention the UKMO which stands 0 chance of picking up details like shortwave around the Greenland area because of its sub par resolution. 

Really ? I’m petty shore the UKMO is the no 1 model in the world along with ECM at day 4 ? 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Absolutely. Added to the fact people mention the UKMO which stands 0 chance of picking up details like shortwave around the Greenland area because of its sub par resolution. 

Ukmo is higher res than gfs ????

[Ice Day]

And here we arrive at 198....

18z   12z 

Christ on a bike, that's pretty abysmal even by the GFS' standard.  

 

[Norrance]

Back to the models please!

Thanks guys.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Norrance

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS is only wrong when it comes to t24 of slidegate, now which is right is not known, but I have to say that I don’t discount it ‘generally’.....a lot to be decided yet I reckon

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ghoneym]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wrong thread, a few arguments against your pov

 

BFTP

Apologies, I should have PM'd @CreweCold my response, sorry mods

[booferking]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo is higher res than gfs ????

I thought so but it's not.

GFS

This numerical model is run four times a day, using 0, 6, 12 and 18 UTC data, and charts update begins at 3:30, 9:30, 15:30 and 21:30 UTC. First part resolution charts is about 100km (1º), and second part is about 250km (2.5º).

 

UKMO

The UKMO model runs every 12 hours and its output runs out to 3 days (72 hours) in 6 hours interval (6h to 48h) and 12 hours interval (48h to 72h), with a resolution about 125km (1.25º). This numerical model is run two times a day, using 0 and 12 UTC data; charts update begins at 3:50 and 15:50 UTC.
 

[northwestsnow]

Well joking aside, its looking super  at 204..

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, Jason M said:

Odd day really. Things started positive but the charts have gently downgraded through the day. This GFS run is just a bit meh. High pressure continuing to sit just to the SW of Ireland out to 180.

Hopefully the FV3 will be better.

 

You are correct in what you say but the gfs wasn't really on board with any of its runs today and bear in mind the Ukmo only goes to 144hrs. The only really good run today was the ecm this morning. The likes of myself, teits, crewecold have been on here since the birth of the forum many many years ago. If we are negative there's a reason other than a wind up. I'd be a rich man if I bet a pound for every time I've seen models move to the middle ground scenario and this one looks like another. I've heard mentioned today awesome charts......go back to 1st March last year and check the difference 

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And here we arrive at 198....

18z   12z 

Christ on a bike, that's pretty abysmal even by the GFS' standard.  

 

.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Johnp

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo is higher res than gfs ????

Is it? 

According to meteociel the UKMO is running at 1.25 and the GFS 1.0

ECM trumps them both at 0.5

Edited January 13, 2019 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

Just now, booferking said:

I thought so but it's not.

GFS

This numerical model is run four times a day, using 0, 6, 12 and 18 UTC data, and charts update begins at 3:30, 9:30, 15:30 and 21:30 UTC. First part resolution charts is about 100km (1º), and second part is about 250km (2.5º).

 

UKMO

The UKMO model runs every 12 hours and its output runs out to 3 days (72 hours) in 6 hours interval (6h to 48h) and 12 hours interval (48h to 72h), with a resolution about 125km (1.25º). This numerical model is run two times a day, using 0 and 12 UTC data; charts update begins at 3:50 and 15:50 UTC.
 

Don’t confuse the chart resolution with the actual model resolution.  

Ukgm is 10km

gfs is around 15km 

[GeordieX9v]

18z hasn't a clue as usual.

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is it? 

According to meteociel the UKMO is running at 1.25 and the GFS 1.0

That's just the output data they're using. The GFS actually runs at 13km approx, the met office global runs at 10km. 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Paul

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles, sorry busy day so again no time to look at individual ensemble members, but quick look at summaries, no real change but struck by how the envelope is increasing even more at the end of the run (28 Jan) , so while of course a few milder runs creep back in, there is still the potential as well for temperatures to dive even more.