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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Location: Hereford

Not feeling the love from the models (yet) in terms of much lying snow imminent apart from the northern elevations and prone spots. The ground is not that cold and we need a few solid frosts over a few consecutive nights.

This thread does get contradictory but I guess that is down to human, rather than model bias in many cases.

To me, looking at all current model output, the direction of travel is good but more of a rollercoaster than a log flume drop.

What a week coming up of political theatre and model drama. Plenty of uncertainties with both. Nothing will be agreed until everything is agreed.........

18Z's coming out soon and I think we need to keep the ICON interest alive, as it did well last March with its modelling of the cold/snow as I remember.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just a note that slp above 1030 mb in the greeny regions remains under 10% chance pre day 15 on the eps

i think a strong greeny ridge is week 3 if it comes ......in the meantime. I don’t see any issues with a southerly jet into a Euro trough with wedges keeping us on the right side of incoming systems .....but that is a risky scenario for the southern half of the uk ....

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Very interesting weather on the way colder later this week with a  chance of some snow it's the following week I think the real cold and snow will hit long range BBC weather just said very wintery weather on way with low pressure slides under the high pressure  a lot of snow...

IMG_0029.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Right the Icon has fired up

Lets reset & go again.

Just a reminder the boom charts are at day 10 'as well as' day 4...

Plenty of anow about this week, Thursday seems trough day to me!!

 

Not like you Steve to forget how to spell snow model fatigue maybe setting in have a break mate cold is coming snow will follow 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

This might be rubbish, but I can't help but think, had these same synoptics occurred in the 90's and especially 80's, there would have been a greater chance of countrywide snow events, particularly for the southern half of the country with less marginal temperatures?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The signal has been there over the past week or so in Fl for colder charts to show,then to be dropped,it always happens,then to be picked up closer the time(near term upgrades),there will always be chopping and changing from one day to another that always happens and never all the big three show consistancy even out past 96hrs esp when it comes to pin pointing trough disruption,remember that ecm easterly!,i think it was 72 hrs away and it was a no go

anyway looking at some of the latest stuff just in and i like the look of the 8-14 day cpc anomoly,a true arctic high there with pos link up from the atlantic high,trough dropping down into Europe with pos easterlies to follow

814day_03.thumb.gif.128bcf2ec632196e9925cbe482401297.gif

latest NAO/AO

the NAO still on neutral territory whereas the AO shows a dip into neg territory with three members gunning for -5

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.74d7d7fa8e5299f08195d4bef10518db.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.c96cec7407b2d2b8f0718fe8c4e15d88.gif

Dutch ecm ens

the temps are cold and the wind direction has progressed over the last few days with regards to an easterly element to them

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.5d3fc4d47e3ab5f44a945a142291b545.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.1cb8f6a4e41f9c9392b63cf8cda7609f.png

a final note to visiters new or old that have just come on here or have just logged in.look at all the posts from today on previous pages cos there is some very good info for newbies and the like,i wish that i have the knowledge of some people on here but i don't,probably due to more commitments i suppose

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Best ICON run of the last few days coming up - pity its only to 120!

Steve its sliding!!!looks amazing!!no more oval shape low!!

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

I have been reading more about the SSW 

And what i didn't find out was .

If there was a Greenland high

Or a scandi high already in place would this be helped by the effects of the SSW 

Or wouldn't it make a different .

 

 

Edited by sorepaw1
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

ICON 18Z - More negative tilt on the low/greater chance of a snow event THIS Friday!! Lovely Jubbly!!

Before image.thumb.png.1ade19b385a56da086cb03a40400aeb2.png
 

After image.thumb.png.f9eb01296af4b31a0c895a414baa360d.png

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
2 minutes ago, Don said:

This might be rubbish, but I can't help but think, had these same synoptics occurred in the 90's and especially 80's, there would have been a greater chance of countrywide snow events, particularly for the southern half of the country with less marginal temperatures?

But we haven't had the snow yet, so how can you pass that judgement? Let's wait and see first!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

But we haven't had the snow yet, so how can you pass that judgement? Let's wait and see first!

Lol quite right!  However, my point was, the chances of getting more countrywide snow events would probably have been greater from the upcoming synoptics (if they come off as predicted), with cooler global temps etc.  Like you say, though, lets wait and see!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I have been reading more about the SSW 

And what i didn't find out was .

If there was a Greenland high

Or a scandi high already in place would this be helped by the effects of the SSW 

Or wouldn't it make a different .

 

 

A Scandi high can often be the trigger for a SSW, via wave 2 pulses, the infamous exceptional Jan 1987 severe cold and snow via a robust Scandi high actually occurred prior to a SSW a few weeks later.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yes but temperatures are set to start falling away from later this coming week, only a few days away. It is a gradual downward trend in temperatures and a gradual increase in snow risks rather than a sudden plunge into a freeze. A slow process, but potentially prolonged. A messy picture, which raises the risk of conditions being the wrong side of marginal at times but also should bring more opportunities for wintriness rather than being cold but dry, with things less marginal later in the period.

Yes, I think that's the best anyone can say right now; downward trend in temperatures, a spell of cold zonality (caveat alert - WNW bias, not W to E conventional tracking), with marginal 850s - and yes, before people jump on me, I know we don't need -10s due to polar maritime LP tracking, however they will STILL be marginal and hit and miss - bringing the usual challenges for UKMO in such messy situations. At least it won't be the wrong kind of snow (no powder snow, more traditional wet compacted stuff) where it does fall. Whether it settles is another point altogether, elevation will be your friend (hello Buxton). 

All looking fairly standard fayre in the mid term, with at least some snow to satisfy the starved, beyond that, no one knows. However the winter bar of expectation has definitely been lowered in the MME. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z T120 and 12z at same time for  comparison:

image.thumb.jpg.7ca5918fec92ab867b19d02d6ba28921.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0f182ee707258f5ee2075bf0b31a90e5.jpg

Increased amplification even at this timescale.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

A Scandi high can often be the trigger for a SSW, via wave 2 pulses, the infamous exceptional Jan 1987 severe cold and snow via a robust Scandi high actually occurred prior to a SSW a few weeks later.

 

Thank you Nick.

I appreciate your time

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
46 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

At no point did anyone in here did claim that heights into Greenland in next week would be primarily route especially with background signals. Day 10 charts which you mention to be "boom" are more likely than any point this winter so far. Only model that consistently had heights into Greenland by mid Jan was the ever atrocious CFS, says a lot. Michael Ventrice on Twitter today did mention the lag on trop impact between SSW warming over Siberia in comparison to SSW over NA (like Feb 2018). The impacts are not felt until 20-30 days after warming - taking us to last week of Jan. That makes US guys also keen on cold last week of Jan into Feb.

We need to be really careful here of not falling into the 'top 100 excuses for delay in propogation' trap - this theory is far from substantiated with very different views by a number of commentators. Remember; we will have a default winter's end SSW anyway due to the natural warming come March, so any further pot of gold at the end of the rainbow delay could be mistaken for Mother Nature's usual last hurrah. 

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

So basically it's all up in the air?....no pun intended .

Well, yes and no. NWP are not 100% proof after 72 hrs plus in reality, but the Strat science has been increasing in reliability. But this is Mother Nature, anything is possible. But us missing out on a proper cold and snowy spell this winter is extremely unlikely. 

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