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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, MattStoke said:

ECM 46 day model updates tonight at around 10pm, I think? Should be good.

Tomorrow Matt

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I fear some are steady suffering from imbyism........ let’s not judge the outlook based on the likelihood that it is more likely /not likely to bring wintry conditions to your backyard 

get the cold in and watch the surprises unfold

excellwnt ec mean to day 10 - bang in line with expectations although a huge spread to our west probably reflects the clusters with a more amplified ridge against a flatter nw/se jet as per the 00z op 

Yeah I think there is certainly some interest out there.

Also worth noting for all that when you've got disrupting troughs and a surface flow coming from Europe you don't need to have 'that' cold of an airflow aloft, -4/5C would probably do it even at the start of a cold spell.

Finally, the 12z op was probably in the top 3/4 most 'boring' runs out there, for good or for bad there was some utterly ridiculous runs, my favourite being P5, which drops a 935mbs PV vortex over the UK and a right royal mix of wintry weather. There are also some really amazing snowy runs in there.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
15 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Contrary to most on here, it does model the NE USA, Greenland better than the Euros...Rmet have a link to local verification, the NOAA page is currently down. I feel gfs 8times out of 10 shows a change in the Eastern us Area it is correct...Remember the GP torpedo which was sending cold our way......only for the gfs to start a shortwave hysteria in here as it modeled it stopping build of heights over Greenland causing fury in here....think 2014 or 2015.....Why do I believe it to be correct now.....It is modeling the Canadian lobe correctly, jet energy will be stronger than modeled by Euros which will see the short term pattern flat......we will see very soon.

In fairness, even its own ensembles are much more amplified than the GFS operational run. Not to say its wrong of course, but that really should throw at least some uncertainty into what it is showing.

I'd not look beyond 144hrs with any faith at the moment, you'd only need the models to be over-estimating the energy coming SE and the whole situation will shift over our shores in terms of where the surface cold is located.

Nick, I agree, I wouldn't be surprised if something like that occurs, even if we don't get any great cold afterwards.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

But we are now starting to see better charts before day 10.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A familiar ext EPS this evening; High amplification upstream with the east Pacific ridge into the Arctic and the vortex/trough down eastern North America. Ergo still a lot of energy exiting the eastern seaboard around the Bermuda high pressure down to the European trough now tending a tad south of the UK. But some of the energy diverges around the still pronounced ridge Iceland/east Greenland. so still portending unsettled and colder than average but a tricky surface analysis which the det. runs will need to sort

8-14.thumb.png.373782e8f05252060284903d6f08e74d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

Yes but temperatures are set to start falling away from later this coming week, only a few days away. It is a gradual downward trend in temperatures and a gradual increase in snow risks rather than a sudden plunge into a freeze. A slow process, but potentially prolonged. A messy picture, which raises the risk of conditions being the wrong side of marginal at times but also should bring more opportunities for wintriness rather than being cold but dry, with things less marginal later in the period.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

At no point did anyone in here did claim that heights into Greenland in next week would be primarily route especially with background signals. Day 10 charts which you mention to be "boom" are more likely than any point this winter so far. Only model that consistently had heights into Greenland by mid Jan was the ever atrocious CFS, says a lot. Michael Ventrice on Twitter today did mention the lag on trop impact between SSW warming over Siberia in comparison to SSW over NA (like Feb 2018). The impacts are not felt until 20-30 days after warming - taking us to last week of Jan. That makes US guys also keen on cold last week of Jan into Feb.

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

That may be the case, but Greenland blocking isn’t the only deliverable for cold and snow for the UK Crewe. Obviously a Greeny block is the holy grail, but if we have to wait so be it. 

After all Wedges make sledges

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
36 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I would have to say the ECM mean does look good at 240 hrs. ..However higher heights to the North would be welcome

Build it (the cold) and they will come, JS; the writing's on the wall...Stick with what the teleconnections are indicating, long term, and you'll not go far wrong...interim model-variance is par for the course...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The issue is, given what we saw unfold stratospherically, we cannot be surprised by some of the less appealing trop output we see currently. 

Interitus (I think) showed a 3D plot of the predicted downwelling and it clearly showed daughter vortices across Canada and Scandinavia, with mid latitude blocking being suppressed into the Atlantic/to our SW. Now what do we see in the trop modelling at present... Yep you guessed it. It was well advertised. Along with the Arctic high. 

Patience is required here as I believe the next stage will be a decent Scandi HP into February. Why? Because that is where strat events map us to next. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The issue is, given what we saw unfold stratospherically, we cannot be surprised by some of the less appealing trop output we see currently. 

Interitus (I think) showed a 3D plot of the predicted downwelling and it clearly showed daughter vortices across Canada and Scandinavia, with mid latitude blocking being suppressed into the Atlantic/to our SW. Now what do we see in the trop modelling at present... Yep you guessed it. It was well advertised. Along with the Arctic high. 

Patience is required here as I believe the next stage will be a decent Scandi HP into February. Why? Because that is where strat events map us to next. 

If we could still just get some sort of Greeny first, we might get a trop led Greeny, if we could, i really think this could be up there with one of the greatest second halves of winter since records began, as it is, we still have a chance of a whitening.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

Since when have we been seeing boom charts on the ECM prior to the last few runs? It has pretty much down sod all for most of the winter so far.

The cold has been showing in FI to land between the 18th - 20th for the past 7 days on the GFS and now all models are showing this with snow opportunities popping up in the nearer time frames as well.

It is coming, 1987 it may not be but at least we have a chance of the white stuff.....better than 10c and cloudy. 

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If we could still just get some sort of Greeny first, we might get a trop led Greeny, if we could, i really think this could be up there with one of the greatest second halves of winter since records began, as it is, we still have a chance of a whitening.

Yes there is a chance in the mean time... Absolutely.

A trop led Greeny would suit me down to the ground (as it would many others). 

But I think its fair to temper some expectations of brutal cold in the next couple of weeks. Of course we may all see some snow but it's not as nailed on as the end game (main course) , which is at least 2 weeks away in my honest opinion. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

My god is this a weather forum or a weather models rehab forum? The signal for Greenland blocking has only strenghthened on this evenings runs. 

ECM

3DBCB396-7462-439D-931C-E437DC8317EA.thumb.png.8770bbf2ce0767b83385b36bf2d652f0.png

GFS

5A96BAD0-9212-495D-A876-B3219A162A58.thumb.png.8c568366214f80612fcbc3a0f5060413.png

I’m not seeing whats changed? The next 1/2 weeks always looked cold zonal, the EC op shows a few snow events in the next 7-10 days.

The next two weeks never really looked to be anything more than cold zonal/slider lows but now we’re seeing signs of proper blocking towards the end of the month. 

Below average across all models for the foreseeable, snow producing cold for much of that time, too  

Deep cold BFTE? No. But that was never in the offering, anyway. 

Don’t follow every single ops run. Stick with the ensembles and you’ll have a much smoother ride..

 

Great to see that the ECM has got it nailed again, Daniel...Bin the GFS, it's crap; heights near Greenland are far too intense. Expect it to move towards the euros!:santa-emoji:

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