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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

No game changers at T0 from the ECM ensembles.

image.thumb.jpg.042e31b843516b0dc3f37a9535b6aeb2.jpg

why do they put this chart out?  Any way cold is now virtually assured,  the ensemble output will start to help us unpack how that cold will impact the different regions of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Superb ECM mean at T 240:

image.thumb.jpg.675cabbe28ab2020c400ec281d0b2afa.jpg

Looks a fair reflection of the Det all the way through to be honest. I think  

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15 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

Great post, 3C to 5C max's for most is what we're looking at, just below average and nothing out of the ordinary for mid to late January. It will mainly be sunny and dry for most. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Binned why? Interested as to why you feel it should be binned when it mirrored the Icon earlier.....Do not really understand the gfs bashing on this thread then it's great when it produces 2010 360 hour Greenland highs and brings them in.

I know mate - it's all quite silly really: the GFS is the bee's knees, when it shows ten-foot-deep snowdrifts!

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Great post, 3C to 5C max's for most is what we're looking at, just below average and nothing out of the ordinary for mid to late January. It will mainly be sunny and dry for most. 

Not true, for my location the GFS mean shows a max of 1 degree above freezing from 20th to the end of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Once the SSW begins to downwell later this week and the models pick this up I am pretty sure these charts will look totally different come the end of this week. From what I've read the models will not show SSW response untill it hits the trop. Very much still in game and some!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Jeez whats happened to this thread. Its been invaded by the U12 mild brigade.

Indeed Steve . The ECM mean looks rock solid out to T240 . When do you think the gfs will stop it’s ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I showed the peachy T+240 Ecm 12z ensemble mean on previous page but let's not forget next thurs / fri which show arctic air flooding south!..and to think the real excitement may come during the following week (s)!!!:cold-emoji:❄❄❄❄❄❄

EDM0-96.gif

EDM0-120.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Deary me it has all gone a bit Pete Tong in here...

All looks rosey for here in Scotland - snow on the way if the ECM and GFS prove correct!

The CFS has this nailed for all the UK and Ireland - only at +870h! 

Lovely stuff! ☃️

83252940-27F2-4E92-9E4D-0B0034776671.png

0F6F16DB-EB25-4293-A60C-E56CDE9729B7.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

ensembles GEM 12z

gens-0-1-216.thumb.png.e5ec9ec5255cc82fd3b1f8622d23e115.pnggens-0-1-228.thumb.png.1526d22ba2551f9ec6289cdb903b7b75.pnggens-0-1-240.thumb.png.5a669fbcadeb944f8524cd78c5290675.pnggens-5-1-228.thumb.png.ee76881eff29178c2068dfe0372153de.pnggens-5-1-240.thumb.png.0788cc86b7b26daac9e7f9c7ba8338d3.pnggens-8-1-228.thumb.png.9261cfb0773ab6ba800f09d774259b9f.png     

gens-8-1-240.thumb.png.38952b1b40a3ec4852b493a363a5408e.pnggens-8-1-252.thumb.png.64c2331c1eda8ac7ad246971edddb9cc.pnggens-9-1-216.thumb.png.dce490abe873649a470b5c0f719e84b8.pnggens-9-1-228.thumb.png.2c1dca3f8e6e87cf53f4e85b9043ca54.pnggens-12-1-216.thumb.png.a25f83b77e4010eee493ec4825afd246.pnggens-12-1-228.thumb.png.014c34fa290d37976a0a0d85be5f3767.png    

gens-17-1-240.thumb.png.f684a32e70da8a9cda230d9d4e69e314.pnggens-17-1-252.thumb.png.8e386412f05437f5ef75c30c4b5aa802.pnggens-17-1-264.thumb.png.160fa6537a12c8a58cad3a7348a8a084.pnggens-19-1-252.thumb.png.0363ae3669acfc2ba6c926fc38e88b5a.pnggensnh-20-1-300.thumb.png.4515c41aa5d9fb62b08a677b2a273e08.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.63d968d2b03548cdf2b3c0efc53578f0.png      

sliders anyone? 

ensemble NAEFS 12z 228h naefsnh-0-0-228.thumb.png.6b0ef0e1a15f066020c99942445ff12e.png end of the run 682283441_naefsnh-0-0-384(1).thumb.png.6c3f89e14913f983db274bf370a949ba.png signal remains for Greenland / northern blocking.

ensemble ECMWF/IFS 12z 240h 759723931_EDH101-240(1).thumb.gif.add204f90b0d941ce2c6d71cbf1887c5.gif 

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z

gens-1-1-288.thumb.png.b0b06a89a0a86fa4afd2998a265a50c2.pnggens-1-1-312.thumb.png.3c88a241cd74ba921dc724ea3d309150.pnggens-6-1-252.thumb.png.616182c7a0b09c949224ccaa3a6f5b75.pnggens-6-1-276.thumb.png.7ddd37cdaa705f74cf39a82ceeb3bc41.pnggens-0-3-384.thumb.png.4bb66426130f2859849c1168d6e89509.pnggens-1-3-300.thumb.png.e130ef0b8ba821c2377a5b46370919a7.png       

gens-5-3-348.thumb.png.d6c8577f9877adef4c72ded15ea69d21.pnggens-6-3-276.thumb.png.cd1952a622d877c717766de5928e04ff.pnggens-7-3-360.thumb.png.33ea1abc8bc71191d2781358b3d38788.png   

 

Now they are a bunch of charts I’d take, can we have them all please starting the weekend for the next couple of weeks?

seriously though all we no at this stage is it’s going to turn much colder and there will be a decent chance of snow from around Friday and more especially into the following week.

the excitement is slowly starting to take hold just hope we all have a decent dump out of it with the exception to the mild crew within the group

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