Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m talking about the GFS op upto day 6 . Zero support from the other main ops . 

All the others disrupt the low to the west of the UK , the GFS has it se of the UK.

Yes!!  thats what im saying - i know you aren't a GEFS fan but they are supporting the ECM op - so yes - GFS out on its own, also it looks like with the uppers that 240 dropping trough has a bit of leeway as well, could be quite far east compared to usual and still get snow.

[Frosty.]

As day 10 Ecm  charts go, this 12z is a peach..surely a recipe for snow..I think winter is definitely on the way!!!

Edited January 13, 2019 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

If the others follow the UKMO at day 6 and that sticks to its guns tomorrow I expect pandemonium to break out in here in a good way!

We’ll see , of all the times when we wanted to see a day 7 UKMO chart the US shutdown has put paid to that .

[Methuselah]

12Z GEFS T850s for Suffolk...I now make that 14 members finishing below -5!

[Man With Beard]

Decent D10 snow event on ecm raw output... academic for now of course 

[IDO]

14 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

The 0z didn't get it wrong! We are only twelve hours closer to the forecast period and this a variation! At least wait until we are actually closer to the date before calling a forecast bust...

 

I was referring to the placement of the wedge(s). Within the flow, they are the drivers along with the long wave pattern. 

 

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I couldn’t disagree more IDO. The ecm today is bang in line with the ec mean expectations ........and other modelling in the same ballpark. Why should that change tomorrow? .it may, but not logical to suggest it now ....

I agree all roads lead to some type of Euro trough, I was just indicating how seemingly great the ECM is at always getting those snowy/cold D10 charts, this time with the perfectly placed wedge at D9/D10! There are other routes to the Euro trough and I hope the ECM is spot on, but maybe...

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Decent D10 snow event on ecm raw output... academic for now of course 

Where is the snowline? And please don't say M4 north.

[Fozfoster]

40 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm begins mixing out the cold..

However its a pretty sure bet that the overheads will be more fridgid-as we fall within 72hr mark..

A simple story of larger scale dynamics..

On a smaller scale.

Ec great with genral synops..but has tendancy to under play 850hpa's..

 

Is it the half a bottle of port or do i understand your post tight isobar.....lol

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

after all the big  updates  on the gfs  for arouned  192  hr  and what country file  weather was  hinting that the weather after next weekend going  to get they interesting

[A.J]

39 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Here is the 6pm and 9pm charts for the one just posted, there's no way it can go from one frame to the next looking like that on the GFS P.

Defo an error somewhere.

the GFS(P) ppn charts on NW has always been broken.....probably nothing to do with NW

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I couldn’t disagree more IDO. The ecm today is bang in line with the ec mean expectations ........and other modelling in the same ballpark. Why should that change tomorrow? .it may, but not logical to suggest it now ....

Indeed with the Canadian > Euro trough pathway

 

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Where is the snowline? And please don't say M4 north.

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

From 13/01 to ??

[Chesil View]

Very pleased with the ECM runs today

Good consistency shown within the required envelope of solutions.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

From 13/01 to ??

I would take those snow charts with just a pinch of salt 

See said example of “pinch”

[kold weather]

So the models have more or less moved away from the big PV lobe dropping over us from the NW (that was a heck of a set-up, must be exceptional for it to drop like that without that much in the way of stout northern blocking.) but we are still very much in the set-up where we could get dropping troughs towards the Uk/Europe. Exactly the track could make a large difference and that is reflected in the models. I've got to think we'd be so unlucky to not get at least one of them to drop down in a way that opens the door to a cold/snow set-up at some point, but anything could happen (including the big momma PV drop!)

Anyway having flicked thorugh the ensembles, I'd say the 12z GFS op run is probably the most 'bland' out of all the runs

[Lloyds32]

59 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Remarkable consistency from the Big 2 T144:

But with ECM we get to see the next four frames!

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

[damianslaw]

Sticking to the reliable - which is what I will be doing over the days ahead i.e. 144 hrs, differences again between ECM and GFS, the former less progressive with the atlantic, the latter much more so .. (all par for course it seems), and usually we end up with a middle ground affair.

ECM is suggesting trough disruption, slider front territory 19 Jan, thanks to heights ridging through UK on 18th, UKMO also showing this, GFS barrells the low pressure through.

I suspect the GFS will backtrack, and a blend of UKMO/ECM output will verify at this key juncture - meaning a messy wintry mix next weekend, snow in the north most likely.

Until then, another two mild days, Wednesday sees the change - bang on mid winter point, Thursday and Friday sees UK sat under much colder uppers, return of sharp frosts and likely snow showers in exposed northern and NE parts.

Beyond and the Ensembles hold steadfast that a cold/very cold period will ensue.

[johnholmes]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Steve, we were asked to add date and time when posting mobile piccs, could you oblige with this one please?

thanks

 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

Scraps you say......

-5c 850’s you say

Standard winter with PV over NE Canada would be a problem. But it’s not a standard winter now....

Edited January 13, 2019 by karlos1983

[DanDorsetUK]

3 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

We're not in post SSW yet. From what I've read the SSW cool down begins this week which should push warmth into the Trop which hopefully will then produce northern blocking. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Steve, we were asked to add date and time when posting mobile piccs, could you oblige with this one please?

thanks

 

240 chart from 12z today.

[Skyraker]

21 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Where is the snowline? And please don't say M4 north.

North of a line from say Cardiff to oooh…. London.  

Edited January 13, 2019 by Skyraker

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW. 

I would agree 100%

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

For balance and closer to home.

Not really. The GFS was nowhere near the euros on the 12z and I’m not a fan of saying this, but that run should be binned!

Edited January 13, 2019 by karlos1983