Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[IDO]

At D9 the GFS and ECM:

ECM still sending chunks of the Canadian vortex rather than systems so better than the GFS. Just do not want further corrections towards the GFS tomorrow, though the GFS 12z was an outlier synoptic wise so unlikely?

Rare to see another incoming D10 ECM promising chart though!!!

[ukpaul]

The ECM is about 200 miles to the East compared to the 0z. Still a similar evolution, just a matter of positioning.

EDIT - as the 240 shows.

Edited January 13, 2019 by ukpaul

[Weathizard]

Could be a few days pain for long term gain, continued signs that Canadian vortex lobe is beginning to wain, it’s having one last spew at us before it skulks off! Keep that HP to our west and pressure low to our south and we will be in business eventually.

This actually echos what the UKM long Rangers must be saying as their outlooks kind of point to it being mixed to begin with, with increasingly cold/very cold conditions as we head into late month, heads up, nothing to worry about yet.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Am I the only one who thinks this is a decent ECM?

At day 9 it's really not that different to this morning's.

Yes John it is a good run . You were always gonna get the downgrade posts bla bla bla . Variations of the same theme . 

[ICE COLD]

Day 10 will do just fine .

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, underlining yet again all roads lead to cold with this post SSW setup.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Mike Poole

[karlos1983]

Never mind potential, ECM D10 I’ll rip your hand off thanks!

Anyone heading to Tunisia from Chicago will get there in no time with that Jet Profile  

Edited January 13, 2019 by karlos1983

[Purga]

It could have been worse - a lot worse!

This is still a very good evolution & could give some serious snow to some.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Purga

[Banbury]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Never mind potential, ECM D10 I’ll rip your hand off thanks!

Yep got there in the end mate , O/T C Fawkes thinking the week after next could be interesting ……….Lets hope GFS can get to grips with things later 

[Froze were the Days]

240 doesn't end bad at all...stationery front with increasing continental air into the mix - so possible snow for some lucky people (central/eastern areas?).

Only annoying part is the continuation of low heights near to Iceland and Greenland...

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Look to situation next friday/saturday could give headbreaks for snow

Head breaks or heartbreaks ? Headaches certainly for forecastsers and heart ache for some on here I reckon. Will likely come down to 24hrs or less before and the high res models to place the rough snow line. 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Tim Bland

[mb018538]

Hoping for a chunk of cold to dive south a la ecm....expecting flat as a pancake like gfs. Reverse psychology, prove me wrong!

[mulzy]

ECM 12z actually quite close to this morning's run - the pattern has shifted east by a couple of hundred miles.  Who's to say it can't shift back west on the next run?  Anyway, the destination is clear - cold or even very cold

[ICE COLD]

TBF we all new the ECM was not gonna match this mornings run , it was a stonking run . All variations of a cold theme . Yes tonight’s run is not as good as this mornings run but tonight’s is still good . Everyone moans no matter what . This morning people where moaning it was a dry run . You can never win .

[nick sussex]

Very good consistency from the ECM. Whether it’s correct is another matter later on however it’s miles better than the GFS if you’re looking for snow chances .

The best output is hands down the UKMO at day 6 . That would evolve similar to the ECM but with more sharpness and corrected west .

The GFS early evolution has no support and its odds against that will verify .

[IDO]

Again the ECM op, as with this morning, relying on wedges to get that flow NW to SE:

I am not saying that it isn't possible at this range to get mesoscale details correct, but I am doubtful bearing in mind how bad the 0z got it wrong. I would be sceptical of this repeating again tomorrow and still suggest that D5 ends with FI and hope tomorrow is more enlightening!

[SMU]

So the 00z is probably the western Envelope of the High, the 12z probably the Eastern End - ( 144-192 )

The reality will be a midpoint- so if the 12z has -6c & the 00z had -10c creeping in then the -8c line off a light continental flow will so just fine...

Plus no end in site across day 10 so that would be a 7 day spell now

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Very good consistency from the ECM. Whether it’s correct is another matter later on however it’s miles better than the GFS if you’re looking for snow chances .

The best output is hands down the UKMO at day 6 . That would evolve similar to the ECM but with more sharpness and corrected west .

The GFS early evolution has no support and its odds against that will verify .

You know Nick, these ECM runs are not a million miles away from the GEFS mean, yes they're a bit better but you would expect that, so there is great support for this kind of evolution.

[bluearmy]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

So the 00z is probably the western Envelope of the High, the 12z probably the Eastern End - ( 144-192 )

The reality will be a midpoint- so if the 12z has -6c & the 00z had -10c creeping in then the -8c line off a light continental flow will so just fine...

Plus no end in site across day 10 so that would be a 7 day spell now

Let’s hope so ....delighted to see the trough drop at the end in line with expectations 

That envelope would be great to work with - disrupting front crossing the country as the trough drops around it - pockets of 520 dam with slp around 1000mb ..........

[tight isobar]

Doesnt matter how anybody wants to undress it..

We are going cold..perhaps very..

With heaps of snow chances as we unwind.

Ecm 240 is mouthwatering...

And is clearly wearing the trousers.

As again the azhp...looks a friend rather than foe.

That rounded notion is 1 i like to see..as the evo progresses..

And we redirect-into a sharper profile...as we gain.

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Again the ECM op, as with this morning, relying on wedges to get that flow NW to SE:

I am not saying that it isn't possible at this range to get mesoscale details correct, but I am doubtful bearing in mind how bad the 0z got it wrong. I would be sceptical of this repeating again tomorrow and still suggest that D5 ends with FI and hope tomorrow is more enlightening!

I couldn’t disagree more IDO. The ecm today is bang in line with the ec mean expectations ........and other modelling in the same ballpark. Why should that change tomorrow? .it may, but not logical to suggest it now ....

[WhiteFox]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Again the ECM op, as with this morning, relying on wedges to get that flow NW to SE:

I am not saying that it isn't possible at this range to get mesoscale details correct, but I am doubtful bearing in mind how bad the 0z got it wrong. I would be sceptical of this repeating again tomorrow and still suggest that D5 ends with FI and hope tomorrow is more enlightening!

The 0z didn't get it wrong! We are only twelve hours closer to the forecast period and this a variation! At least wait until we are actually closer to the date before calling a forecast bust...

As ever with these siutations, we will see variations east and west, with the forecast track narrowing as we get closer to the event. Probabilities of some form of system taking a track around the areas modelled now seems likely, but it'll be around the three day mark before we can really get any idea of the track, and probably a day or two out before we can consider snow/Rain. Etc.

Edited January 13, 2019 by WhiteFox
Typos

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You know Nick, these ECM runs are not a million miles away from the GEFS mean, yes they're a bit better but you would expect that, so there is great support for this kind of evolution.

I’m talking about the GFS op upto day 6 . Zero support from the other main ops . 

All the others disrupt the low to the west of the UK , the GFS has it se of the UK.

Edited January 13, 2019 by nick sussex

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Let’s hope so ....delighted to see the trough drop at the end in line with expectations 

That envelope would be great to work with - disrupting front crossing the country as the trough drops around it - pockets of 520 dam with slp around 1000mb ..........

Yeah just a bit to much vortex @168 on the 12z for comfort- just need to redistribute the energy more SSE & not ESE !

Mean should be better !

[ribster]

31 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM and GFS at D7:

 

Care to elaborate as I imagine this is meaningless to anyone new to the forum?