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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Nice chart ice cold . Will it be likely to see -8 more widely say  at T192.

Yesterday's 12z chart?!

EDIT: Already spotted as being wrong chart.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Bizarrely GFS P precipitation charts on Netweather are broken and seem to always show continuous precipitation over the whole map.

looks more like 5 years ago todays, 12Z, date on bottom looks weird

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Second day on the trott we have a surpressed 00z ECM then a progressive 12z - so you end up with a big swingometer-

irritated.

What did you really expect Steve , this mornings ECM was really or very nearly as good as we could EVER have hoped , to repeat would have been a miracle ….nothings changed …………….as you know 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

prectypeuktopo.png 4 days away.

Surely this can’t be right !!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm begins mixing out the cold..

However its a pretty sure bet that the overheads will be more fridgid-as we fall within 72hr mark..

A simple story of larger scale dynamics..

On a smaller scale.

Ec great with genral synops..but has tendancy to under play 850hpa's..

 

ECU0-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks more like 5 years ago todays, 12Z, date on bottom looks weird

Here is an example taken from the latest GFS P run from Tue 15th at 3 & 6pm.

3pm.thumb.jpg.a5425d0e77735fc8e4b56d6204506f66.jpg1695529062_Tue6pm.thumb.jpg.94555ae332333d8065a6fa9743b65663.jpg

It's not right.

 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

What did you really expect Steve , this mornings ECM was really or very nearly as good as we could EVER have hoped , to repeat would have been a miracle ….nothings changed …………….as you know 

No I know however the ECM 12z is so inconsistent - like I posted in my bias post about 7-8 days ago 12z ECM zonal bias. 

Same as yesterday, it may not be to bad today, just over progressive.

But the overprogressive nature isnt as bad as yesterday- still enough cold in the tanks for snow @192

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

just when you think it’s sorted ecm joins gfs in spoiling the party,going flat with jet  stream going over the top ,mild outlier again!,hoping

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
2 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

UK buried.. Awesome chart 

The reality:

102-779UK.thumb.gif.801aef43ac07b834e0ca72313cd84ca9.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Here is the 6pm and 9pm charts for the one just posted, there's no way it can go from one frame to the next looking like that on the GFS P.

Defo an error somewhere.

732661610_thurs6pm.thumb.jpg.0915fe1f2030d52860feeb313b890a15.jpg1379239767_Thursday9pm.thumb.jpg.fe795d60a996acd1366fc3800071eb48.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Uppers aren’t exactly mild.

345430C0-D538-476B-9EC4-7D0D5DA43DE5.thumb.png.b80d778e15a1e5f880b744681ff7af6c.png

so anyone thinking this will be an outlier on the temp graphs, think again. Synoptically it may well be...

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

192 a great example...check the vent/and jet prof..

A preety clear indication of miss dynamics....of 850 uppers.

Have no fear..all should align and tighten...

The azores does'nt have me to concerned..

And is feasible to become our friend...in a passing point

ECH4-192.gif

ECH0-192 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Am I the only one who thinks this is a decent ECM?

At day 9 it's really not that different to this morning's.

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