Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

The silence speaks volumes for the gfs/p 12z run...some cold Pm air to the north west but that's about it.

Para looks very snowy to me?

[bluearmy]

A warm easterly!  So British !

[Leo97t]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Para looks very snowy to me?

Yes it very much is. Just on the right side of marginal. And looks to lock in cold

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@BLAST FROM THE PAST UK blizzards again mate - a growing trend?  

   

not to worry folks @feb1991blizzard is in control of the GEFS again making sure that the stonking charts continue 

    

   

@BLAST FROM THE PAST the "slug" going on its holidays to Greenland at the end of the month?  

[Djdazzle]

At least we are now getting better synoptics for cold writhin the 10 day range. For so long it always seemed to be post 10 days. ECM will be interesting later.

[Lloyds32]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are we looking at cold zonality ????

I thought that's all the models have ever shown regarding this so called 'cold' spell off the Atlantic.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Lloyds32

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Para looks very snowy to me?

Temps ready to mix out tho tbh

[Leo97t]

How has the para managed to make this run mild. Love a smoking hot easterly in January. Maybe we can rival the late June 1976 spell.... 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

GFS Para has a big difference in 850mb temperatures across the entire country between the 6z and 12z in FI (22nd Jan)!! 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[SMU]

Parallel is crazy +8c to -8c in 12hours in an Easterly-

Looks broken!

Anyway eyes down for the most important run of the day !

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

I thought that's all the models have ever shown regarding this so called 'cold' spell off the Atlantic.

They showed this as an option re the transition to euro trough but once the wedges come into play it becomes a different ballgame ...

[Catacol]

36 minutes ago, snowice said:

Is that not FV3 6z?

Oh good grief - I'm getting sloppy. Yes - that image is 6z. 12z below. No slider - FV3 also goes for the full blown atlantic low though it disrupts directly over the UK and creates a real forecaster's mess. Not so good as a sharp slider - uppers wont be as low. Half way house between ECM 0z and GFS. 

Anyway - interested mostly in the ECM tonight, and hoping/expecting it to have a better handle on what is approaching. Complex micro picture though - wouldn't want to be working at the MetO once this colder air arrives because I suspect we will face changes in the 24-48 hour bracket by next week in terms of rain, snow and exactly where.....

Edited January 13, 2019 by Catacol

[Met4Cast]

12z GFS det run might not be up to it but this is one hell of a signal on the 300hrs mean chart! 

[ukpaul]

The ‘messiness’ of cold zonality until next Friday or so is part and parcel of the evolution needed, I think. It primes this side of the Atlantic with colder uppers, flattens the Azores High and only then is a Greenie ridge going to be needed. After that, my location has a mean 2m temperature that barely gets above freezing for days and that’s as a result of the lead in and very much in line with the longer range models.

[Mark wheeler]

Just before the ECM , all hail the Mighty Navgem

[Banbury]

Just to warn ECM 'could' well be a downgrade and we shouldn't be surprised 

This mornings was stunning 

To match it would be a dream to beat it would be a miracle 

[shaky]

Ecm at 72 hours already looks better than gfs!!more amplified aswell!!

[Tom Jarvis]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm at 72 hours already looks better than gfs!!more amplified aswell!!

Not much different to the ukmo which is great news!!

[SMU]

GEM was identical to ECM to 174 this eve!

Lets have a rerun please!

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

12z GFS det run might not be up to it but this is one hell of a signal on the 300hrs mean chart! 

Yes - and note the strength of the arctic high. AO to fall negative and cold centres in both US and Europe as the SSW allows cold air to pour out.

In 1979, when the UK had one hell of a winter, eastern US had huge amounts of snow. The Washington snow storm of Feb 79 is ranked as one of their worst. They had heavy snow in Feb 85 and Feb 10 . Supportive wavelengths at this point of the season. I think Roger said something about this the other day...and GP has certainly identified 1985 as top analogue year. 

All looking good - and bang on queue signs that, as early as 72h, ECM sees a more amplified solution in line with UKMO. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

27 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@BLAST FROM THE PAST UK blizzards again mate - a growing trend?  

   

not to worry folks @feb1991blizzard is in control of the GEFS again making sure that the stonking charts continue 

    

   

@BLAST FROM THE PAST the "slug" going on its holidays to Greenland at the end of the month?  

Beautiful KCW.......Beautiful 

 

BFTP

[karlos1983]

Certainly not going the way of the GFS

Edited January 13, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

ECM 96 is much better than UKMO with -7 touching Bristol Midday Thurs !

 

[Weathizard]

BIG 3 at t96, GFS on its own.

[shaky]

Looks like ukmo more than gfs at 96 hours!!close to identical!