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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Pretty consistent from the ECM with the cold not leaving the country really - by 144 anyway 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 is great saying no to the GFS- freezing temps thurs Night & good snowcover for The NE & Scotland by then 

708AAC35-F01F-4BE5-8B6F-1FF41F9BE50D.thumb.png.7dbf7fc67b5f186b8518526f1f2f02a6.png

Sadly that incoming low is not split from the colder pv core and contains warmer 850’s. how Far East will it make?

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Just now, Steve Murr said:

yes The all important continental 'tug' by 144 

London -7c

Atlantic allignment across Ireland & SW✔️- poss wintry weather

E6362838-9732-4D9A-951A-C5DF2746FC8D.thumb.png.600a84036e003fd88178dd27622f832a.png

 

Silly question but would the blue be the snow boundary. I know snow is very hard to forecast and there are many factors.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Yes T+144 looking good because that next low is so far south and the ridge over the uk is enough to keep the colder 850’s in situ

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Quite snowy for Ireland at least at 168 with a stalling front. Dryer elsewhere but cold.

 

Need this to evolve further, ECM on it's own a little bit at the moment. UKMO closest.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I know what I have in my head as to what T+192 will look like and it is good. But will the actual chart be comparable. Hope so

 

 

edit and the answer is nope.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I know what I have in my head as to what T+192 will look like and it is good. But will the actual chart be comparable. Hope so

Any moisture on the 192 chart? Looks v cold st the surface 

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13 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Silly question but would the blue be the snow boundary. I know snow is very hard to forecast and there are many factors.

not really on that chart - the blue doesnt represent the snow

Lots of factors to consider but its bloody cold !

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Any moisture on the 192 chart? Looks v cold st the surface 

Not a lot as the late Paul Daniels would say. But no concern with that so far

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

I would much rather see the gfs and gem evolution than this ecm. Very cold it may be, but incredibly slack and very boring.

 

edit: much improved at 216.. did not expect that evolution at all if honest but happy with it 

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Not quite sure what the EC just did at 240hrs there but it's a game changer in regard to yesterday run???

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, chionomaniac said:

Biggest and best slide on this run

 

6A3BB7D8-4CBA-4665-BCE5-B2E95E938BB1.thumb.jpeg.7a57cc38df008fd36687df1c2ae602bc.jpeg

lovely little wedge of higher heights too. And regarding boring, most notable cold spells I remember as I child started with benign pre conditioning cold weather then the snow

Look at the cold pool over Norway building at 240 though!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
13 hours ago, carinthian said:

UKMO again consistent with its output and this is the best model so far for the route to cold in the short term. Looks like the low at the end of the week to track over Ireland and sinking towards Brittany and introducing a easterly component to the flow over Southern Britain next weekend.  We need to see ECM go down this route this evening.

 

C

UN144-21.gif

Morning all in the UK. ECM/GEM all now in agreement with the UKMO at 144t. GFS out on its own. Both UKMO and ECM now in the shorter range show formation of a trough disruption from West of Ireland towards Brittany. UKMO has been consistent with this output for some days now. The second chart shows some backing of the flow across Southern Britain with cold air established ( not only at the surface but 850mb temps showing quite low negative values ). Not sure what will happen in the range 168-240t. Just important to get the cold air embedded and then see what happens.

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

ECU1-144.gif.png

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