Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Leo97t]

The para has been impressively consistent today. Wondering if it's on to something special

[Mair Snaw]

right sorry for bringing this thread off topic.. clearly my asking of questions is not welcome so i will just go back to be a lurker and refrain from asking stuff. sorry mods just thought we were all here to learn. the very fact that the strap at the top of the page has turned from green to red since i started questions says enough.

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening fellow coldies

i would just like to remind folk not to take every single model run as gospel,there will be ups and downs as we tick down to t0,nothing has changed in the overall macroscale pattern(bigger picture) and we will not know the final outcome until we get near to t0(the IMBY micro scenario),this is what model output discussion is all about finding trends and signals as well as telleconnections,mjo,glaam,gwo etc + the SSW that is downwelling as we speak,this has been messaged across this forum for yonks now,you know that,we are in a great position right now and we have to be patient

a look at the means from the ecm and gefs show consistancy from both at day ten and they look decent to me with ridging in the atlantic and trough to our S/SE

this evenings latest from cpc 8-14 day outlook is consistant from prev days too so all looking good from where i am sat,also the eps at day ten

enjoy the ride folks,there could by acoming our way

just to add,as anyone seen the cfs 12z run 1 month,gobsmackingly good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=-6&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

Edited January 13, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Mapantz]

20 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

right sorry for bringing this thread off topic.. clearly my asking of questions is not welcome so i will just go back to be a lurker and refrain from asking stuff. sorry mods just thought we were all here to learn. the very fact that the strap at the top of the page has turned from green to red since i started questions says enough.

It has been red for a number of hours. You didn't get the glory of that i'm afraid.

Nothing wrong with asking questions, but it would be better for the thread of you use the private message function, or use the multiquote option.

Clicking the multiquote option will store the quoted message(s) to a cache, then you can navigate to another thread (better in the model banter thread) and click "quote 1 post" there

It helps to keep this thread on topic, and more importantly, your posts don't go missing.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Mapantz

[danm]

33 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

so can i ask why it is that when a lobe of pv drops over the USA they get massive minus temps and endless snowfall but when a lobe of it drops over us we dont get the same??

To start with, we very rarely get lobes of the PV drop over us. The last one from the north was December 2010 and it brought us a very cold, potent Arctic blast with sub -10c 850’s all the way down to southern England, which is quite unusual with a northerly. 

The difference between us and the US is a N/NW’erly delivers a frigid airmass pretty much unmodified due to virtually no sea track. Typical continental climate. It’s also why places we go to for our summer holidays in Greece can get bitter cold and heavy snowfall, despite being so much further south. 

[Lowestoft Tiler]

Certainly looking a lot more Wintry from the 21st with below average temperatures and spells of sleet and snow UK wide. 

Have been a member on here since 2004 but can't log in on old account "Mammatus" so rarely post these days but always here lurking reading through the fantastic input from you all.

As snow cover increases as pressure rises to our NW end of month I expect some extremely low night time minimum temperatures under clear skies, especially as we start to pull in the already established cold air over Europe.

Our Winter starts from here......

[Cheshire Freeze]

0z ICON 

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO and GFS/ICON are worlds apart at day 6

UKMO-

GFS-

[cheshire snow]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Happy with this...absolute pasting IMBY

Streamer shows up well

If only!

Looks reflective of EC mean too

Still There on This morning GFS CC

C.S

Edited January 13, 2019 by cheshire snow

[essexweather]

Differences between UKMO and GFS significant once more on the 00Z runs. Hopefully the ECM doesn't start pulling towards GFS.

Weds, Thurs, Fri should bring plenty of snow showers to low-levels across parts of the UK either way, so lots to look forward to and this is before the main event later in the month.

[The Eagle]

Dangerously cold conditions potentially in to the northeast states of the United States

 

[Dennis]

Gfs0z

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Dangerously cold conditions potentially in to the northeast states of the United States

 

Seems to be a repeating theme. 

[SMU]

UKMO very very nice again - backed up by the GEM wvhich is the nicest overnight-

GFS placement of the atlantic low has to date always been faster & slightly further NE flattening the flow-

A clear split in the GEFS - All the slow UKMO solutions get enough backdoor cold into England to see a snow event dropping south-

Any faster ones like the operational dont !

Stick with the UKMO as its cold out beyond 144 with atlantic gearing up a big slider @168....

FV3 sits in the middle-

The solutions here rely on a models ability to recognise the tilt & axis of the jet as it drops South & splits energy- not really the GFS strength...

Edited January 13, 2019 by Steve Murr

[NO LONGER POSTING]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Seems to be a repeating theme. 

No bad thing, we don't want that level of cold. It will cripple our economy and our infrastructure is far from capable from handling such cold conditions with the loss of life very high.

Interesting I thought GFS 00z would brighten the mood somewhat... Although most is FI.

 

Lets see how the rest go 

 

[Chris.R]

 Well the GFS 0Z is very nice imby. I would  get something white even hear from that. If that’s the worst solution then bring it on. 

[SMU]

The GEFS ( post the slider scenario which are all about 150-200 miles further East than  UKMO ) continue to return to a classic -AO scenario with many many Easterly solutions - Around 50-60 %

(The vortex lobe dropping south is the main thrust of its direction )

The day 11-13 Means are back down to -6 & on a par evolution wise with last nights ECM mean-

If we get the UKMO solution then the post UKMO 144 evolution must be the same..

These next +5-20 days could be amazing ...

Even scruffy charts like this with a weak -AO index would delivery heaps of snow

Edited January 13, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Dennis]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GEFS ( post the slider scenario which are all about 150-200 miles further East than  UKMO ) continue to return to a classic -AO scenario with many many Easterly solutions - Around 50-60 %

(The vortex lobe dropping south is the main thrust of its direction )

The day 11-13 Means are back down to -6 & on a par evolution wise with last nights ECM mean-

If we get the UKMO solution then the post UKMO 144 evolution must be the same..

These next +5-20 days could be amazing ...

Even scruffy charts like this with a weak -AO index would delivery heaps of snow

True 

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GEFS ( post the slider scenario which are all about 150-200 miles further East than  UKMO ) continue to return to a classic -AO scenario with many many Easterly solutions - Around 50-60 %

(The vortex lobe dropping south is the main thrust of its direction )

The day 11-13 Means are back down to -6 & on a par evolution wise with last nights ECM mean-

If we get the UKMO solution then the post UKMO 144 evolution must be the same..

These next +5-20 days could be amazing ...

Morning steve.where do you see the nao going over the next 10-14 days .tia

[SMU]

weak negative >>> perhaps more negative post day 12-

Edited January 13, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Looking through the gefs, quite a decent set going for a 2013 style easterly. Only 1 member I saw going for true northern blocking, but you don’t always need that for the best snow events. Hints of a revival in temperatures towards the end, but that’s just fi  all in all, a good start to the day 

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks good at 144 this morning

Still a little concern over the azores high, need that to keep to stay out of the way..

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Not such a good para this morning, has to Be said. Let’s hope it’s a rogue run. Eyes down for the ecm now 

[Ali1977]

ECM 96 Looks pretty good

[snowangel32]

We always seem to be chasing FI this Winter. Been reading since Friday night onwards over 50 pages lol. All seemed promising but as we enter the reliable this Winter the true Snowy Nirvana charts never seem to become a reality. We get the scraps struggling for Snow south of the M6 yet again. Any Northern blocking i feel will get crushed from energy coming from the Atlantic due to that huge Snow storm thats about to hit North East America with potential record breaking cold. Wich history shows us will give the Atlantic new hope and power again. I fear we have missed the boat as our chance when was the US was mild and Atlantic was dead we just remained with the Limpet lover known as the UK high. Just feeling negative this morning as again its a waiting game for true cold and snow. Hope I am wrong and we get upgrades soon.