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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted
Just now, kumquat said:

Question: If the vortex disappears, which way round will the water go down the plughole ?? /jk 

It won’t .... would be frozen! 

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
14 minutes ago, kumquat said:

And all the while a huge Siberian High developing.

gfsnh-0-384.png

Keeps Central & E Europe in the freezer, for sure. Meanwhile the ever present HP to our SW ensures UK feeds off the scraps.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

@Man With Beard

Its actually a minuscule upgrade in my opinion.

 

image.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Keeps Central & E Europe in the freezer, for sure. Meanwhile the ever present HP to our SW ensures UK feeds off the scraps.

Agreed, but if the low pressure keeps transferring NW to SE into the Med area....

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
1 minute ago, kumquat said:

Agreed, but if the low pressure keeps transferring NW to SE into the Med area....

A long way off though; 14 days or so.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@Man With Beard

Its actually a minuscule upgrade in my opinion.

 

image.png

Decent!

I think come Tuesday/Wednesday we will start to see a lot more interesting op runs and gone will be the D10+ cold hunting! 

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Storme Enthusiast

Storme

Posted
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Wind, Rain, Sun.....but mainly cooler weather!
  • Location: East of Loughborough! 84m ASL
Posted

Sorry if this is a lame question but as a complete novice, can I ask the more clever and long term members who post on this forum; How close to a snow event have the charts suddenly changed and it's all been off? A matter of days? Hours?

And what changes would you be looking for?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, just interested.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Decent!

I think come Tuesday/Wednesday we will start to see a lot more interesting op runs and gone will be the D10+ cold hunting! 

hopefully.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Storme said:

Sorry if this is a lame question but as a complete novice, can I ask the more clever and long term members who post on this forum; How close to a snow event have the charts suddenly changed and it's all been off? A matter of days? Hours?

And what changes would you be looking for?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, just interested.

Cold synoptics: A matter of days

snow: hours

Edited by kumquat
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Storme said:

Sorry if this is a lame question but as a complete novice, can I ask the more clever and long term members who post on this forum; How close to a snow event have the charts suddenly changed and it's all been off? A matter of days? Hours?

And what changes would you be looking for?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, just interested.

Realistically, in my honest opinion it depends what you class as snow event but unless dustings or 1 or 2 inches are a decent event then i would say at least 10 days away, after that, who knows, we could have a country wide whiteout.

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted

so Para is moved east and is no good followed by its a cold north westerly... nowt changes in here over the years does it? 

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
7 minutes ago, Storme said:

Sorry if this is a lame question but as a complete novice, can I ask the more clever and long term members who post on this forum; How close to a snow event have the charts suddenly changed and it's all been off? A matter of days? Hours?

And what changes would you be looking for?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, just interested.

I remember a big bust in late December 2012 I think it was.  Everything was primed when the ECM came on board for cross model agreement and it all evaporated T48 out!

Some 12 days later on there was a decent onset of winter

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

so Para is moved east and is no good followed by its a cold north westerly... nowt changes in here over the years does it? 

Yeah, the runs change. At least 2 every 6 hours. It's fun 

Edited by kumquat
lmao bad maths
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Some belters 

Can I feel a stonking GEFS 18z graph coming ?? 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Can I feel a stonking GEFS 18z graph coming ?? 

Better but seen better!

roughly Sheffield area ish:

FCB37E4E-B026-457E-B4E9-0885FB3CB261.thumb.gif.8b252643dd823c2dd8cf96da0de8f26f.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Better but seen better!

FCB37E4E-B026-457E-B4E9-0885FB3CB261.thumb.gif.8b252643dd823c2dd8cf96da0de8f26f.gif

Yer a few more milder runs towards the end . Still ok tho . 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Better but seen better!

roughly Sheffield area ish:

FCB37E4E-B026-457E-B4E9-0885FB3CB261.thumb.gif.8b252643dd823c2dd8cf96da0de8f26f.gif

Thats poor towards the end.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thats poor towards the end.

Couple of sub -10 runs, not seen them for a few days.... hoping they’ll grow in numbers 

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer a few more milder runs towards the end . Still ok tho . 

Can't we just lift the UK up to the 500 hectoPascal layer?

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