Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Saying that... ECM Mean V GFS 18z 

Not a million miles away....

Indeed, it seems to be sniffing out the correct longer-term pattern (hopefully). Day 8 sees us into a brisk north-westerly

Edited January 12, 2019 by Ice Day

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs has been closer to expected guidance post day 9 for a while now ..... it’s in the 5/9 day period that it’s a bit different and not catching the changes evident in all the other modelling 

Yes indeed, hence why I thought I’d highlight that. It’s almost as if it does that rhyme 1-2 skip a few 99, 100. Quite a skill. I’d imagine that’s exactly why the likes of the MetO use it for picking up or confirming a sniff of a trend  rather than detail 

Edited January 12, 2019 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Yes indeed, hence why I thought I’d highlight that. It’s almost as if it does that rhyme 1-2 skip a few 99, 100. Quite a skill

It looks much further east than previous few runs by day 10 ....... one to watch rather than over  analyse 

[Mike Poole]

Twist or stick?  Would you take pub run at T228, I would...

 

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, snowice said:

Can someone tell me why gfs parellel is not used  more as the  verification stats are better than Gfs! why do we need the two? 

Total mystery to me! So much time spent analyzing what is now only the 4th best verifying model we can see. The parallel has had a few dodgy moments since it came in but I trust it far more than the old GFS. 

[Weathizard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Twist or stick?  Would you take pub run at T228, I would...

 

The staggering size of that Azores high is truly a sight to see, what drivers are causing this? Obviously this area has prominent pressure rises a lot but this HP has been pivoting and pulsing for weeks already.

[Banbury]

18Z so different to the 12z but good viewing all the same 

[Ice Day]

GFS at 234 vs the ECM mean at 240.  Not a bad match at all,.  The reports of GFS' demise may have been over-exaggerated!

  

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Twist or stick?  Would you take pub run at T228, I would...

 

yeah that will do for me i reckon..

[ICE COLD]

Places would be buried on the pub run . 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T240

Take that too!

 

[Man With Beard]

Clusters D15 — still Euro trough / Atlantic heights, in general (maybe a rogue Atlantic trough getting through?) 

[MattStoke]

Like the ECM at +192 hours (1st image), the GFS at +222 hours (2nd image) has high pressure to our west and south west. This again matches with the ECM seasonal model output (which has performed well this winter) for that period, with that model then going on to show high pressure to our north west further ahead. 

Edited January 12, 2019 by MattStoke

[Banbury]

Gets poor after 240 

[kumquat]

Peachy af

[Ice Day]

Pretty horrible in deep FI, thankfully it will be different in 6 hours.  Onto the GFSP for some late night Saturday entertainment.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Gets poor after 240 

Yer dropped to low res and went titts up lol 

[Matthew.]

This is the chart of the day for me. Shut your eyes and imagine the blizzard setting in

[ICE COLD]

And we go again at T348 ?

[karlos1983]

EC46 for the period we can see 

Not a bad match

it’s not until after that we start to see above average heights further north 

do not confuse that with a greeny high, it’s not suggesting that... yet. 

Edited January 12, 2019 by karlos1983

[Mair Snaw]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer dropped to low res and went titts up lol 

nothing changes does it? 

[kumquat]

And all the while a huge Siberian High developing.

[SMU]

18z FV3 is more amplified @78 than the 12z - so based on that it will head to the same scenario as the UKMO / ECM

GFS 18z pretty much out on its own...

GFS mean @84 more amplified as well which is great as it tugs the cold further south as well-

Edited January 12, 2019 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No reason why not ..., there will be low uppers to draw on .....

TBH, i think more a mid atlantic ridge / slider situation for around the next 15-17 days at least, i do now however think the scandi high option is very realistic for February and fits the strat downwelling, i would just love to get a Greeny first as i think we would intuitively be on to a right winner wrt a brutal and long lasting spell, as it is, we still are in with a shout regardless.

[kumquat]

Question: If the vortex disappears, which way round will the water go down the plughole ?? /jk