Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[weirpig]

Lol ecm has -8 at 144  gfs has in some places above 0   

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another woeful GFS run - When will it get it right, its been poor for about 5 days now.

 

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

On a serious one now either gfs or ecm gona be horribly wrong about that slider!!gfs not backing down what so ever!!

Gfs is very isolated .... even the para is sliding that system against the wedge ......

[Weathizard]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

And UKMO. I can’t see ECM and UKMO being wrong at around day 5 . 

Neither can I, but trust me when I say, with the UK even if all the models are on board and the bloody BOM is the only one going mild, that’ll be the one that verifies  

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, the NH profile at the end of the eps is again reminiscent of early December modelling ahead of the scandi ridge which appeared from ‘nowhere’ ...... there doesn’t seem any reason why we couldn’t see a scandi ridge by day 13/15. 

Do you think it could be a proper high with a brutal uppers Easterly?

[Djdazzle]

 Maybe not the more likely outcome - but I’m not comfortable in going for cold until the GFS comes on board.

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is it still on a downward trend at the end in the main or upward trend? thanks btw.

I think this time there is no real change in the pattern at the end, perhaps the tiniest uptick in temperatures overall but not worth commenting on. 

[Man With Beard]

A final one from the ECM ensembles, one for northerners - between 22nd and 27th January, over 90% of runs show snow on the ground in Glasgow and Manchester on every single day

[seabreeze86]

This is the chart that says look chaps I haven't got a clue what to do next just let's the euros handle this one please 

Love the GFS 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you think it could be a proper high with a brutal uppers Easterly?

No reason why not ..., there will be low uppers to draw on .....

[NeilN]

I think we're in for a treat. OK, where I am is perhaps marginal at best for snow...but have faith! These things change every time there's a run!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

  but I’m not comfortable in going for cold until the GFS comes on board.

Luckily we get 4 chances for the Gfs to come on board every day

[snowice]

Can someone tell me why gfs parellel is not used  more as the  verification stats are better than Gfs! why do we need the two? 

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Gfs is very isolated .... even the para is sliding that system against the wedge ......

If gfs backs down tomorrow thats gona be a horrible climbdown after being so stubborn!!and i dont think i would be taking the gfs seriously after that!!

[Mr.B]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

If gfs backs down tomorrow thats gona be a horrible climbdown after being so stubborn!!and i dont think i would be taking the gfs seriously after that!!

You shouldn’t be taking the gfs seriously anyway!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

If gfs backs down tomorrow thats gona be a horrible climbdown after being so stubborn!!and i dont think i would be taking the gfs seriously after that!!

Its wrong.. 99% ..

Thats my opinion.. although in recent days EC det has been all over the shop.

Im following ens guidance..need to see some op consistency .

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

Can someone tell me why gfs parellel is not used  more as the  verification stats are better than Gfs! why do we need the two? 

Somebody said this yesterday but the verification stats appeared to counter this.

[MattStoke]

Bemused by people's frustration at the GFS' handling of the system later next week. There is no prospect of widespread or significant snow from that system anyway, and no models suggest that there is.

Anyway, it's looking more amplified in the Atlantic further ahead. Could be an improve for the following week on this run.

Edited January 12, 2019 by MattStoke

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

If gfs backs down tomorrow thats gona be a horrible climbdown after being so stubborn!!and i dont think i would be taking the gfs seriously after that!!

Saying that... ECM Mean V GFS 18z 

Not a million miles away....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Happy with this...absolute pasting IMBY

Streamer shows up well

If only!

Looks reflective of EC mean too

Edited January 12, 2019 by CreweCold

[Paul]

11 minutes ago, snowice said:

Can someone tell me why gfs parellel is not used  more as the  verification stats are better than Gfs! why do we need the two? 

Because it's essentially being tested at the moment. It was due to go live and replace the old GFS soon but due to the US govt shutdown will be delayed in all probability. 

[Frost HoIIow]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

If gfs backs down tomorrow thats gona be a horrible climbdown after being so stubborn!!and i dont think i would be taking the gfs seriously after that!!

I wouldn't worry too much about the GFS. As it stands it's still looking good for snow across the UK. Of course if I loved snow but lived somewhere utterly crap for it like Penzance then I would worry but for most of us it's looking positive later this month. 

[kumquat]

When even seemingly poor runs bring this ever closer, not too much to worry about

[weirpig]

Taking the gfs at face value  that is one snowy run for some places 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Saying that... ECM Mean V GFS 18z 

Not a million miles away....

Gfs has been closer to expected guidance post day 9 for a while now ..... it’s in the 5/9 day period that it’s a bit different and not catching the changes evident in all the other modelling 

that ourput is two days apart karlos .... this is a fluid evolution .... 2 days is a lifetime! 

Edited January 12, 2019 by bluearmy

[ICE COLD]

Wide spread cold uppers . But don’t know if it can be trusted because it’s so different to all the other models at day 5 .