Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[SMU]

Just now, shaky said:

Icon more amplified and big improvement at 108 hours!!!

Yes, much towards the UKMO

[Mike Poole]

Well I think the models are now smelling the early 'starter' cold outbreak, now ICON going with an earlier outbreak of cold for some, T120 compared with 12z T132:

For sure the interesting stuff is at a later timescale but it is a start.

Edited January 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[snowray]

Still just about enough time for further upgrades by D5.

[Mair Snaw]

so far so good, like many have said the short term was never really the game changer, call it the starter if you will, the steak and chips will follow ( nut roast for the non meat eaters) and then i do think we will all be ordering ice cream with brain freeze in full effect come end of Jan and into Feb. and lest not forget March, yes i know March is not a winter month but for many it can deliver the goods.

[Frosty.]

Lovely Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, cold outbreak looks certain now, tons of support for it and I'm expecting more upgrades than downgrades as the models firm up...and then longer term..potentially even more wintry...looks like all that patience will be rewarded..and then some!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Struggling to understand the stressing going on here today.

It's January 12th

The cold has been forecast for January 20th for quite some time now so still outside the reliable

Glosea and EC46 look amazing for Northern Blocking from the end of the month onwards (again outside the reliable)

We have a bonus cold spell to look forward to this week

The ops do seem to flip flopping somewhat for later in the week but it's not like we are in the last chance saloon?  We are heading into a cold spell not out of one and who knows it has the potential to be a spell that is talked about for years to come.

I for one am very relaxed about the upcoming few weeks and I would be astonished if large swathes of the UK don't get a decent snow event or two.

Eyes down for the pub run!  Cheers! 

Edited January 12, 2019 by Kentish Snowman

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lovely Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, cold outbreak looks certain now, tons of support for it and I'm expecting more upgrades than downgrades as the models firm up...and then longer term..potentially even more wintry...looks like all that patience will be rewarded..and then some!

And here are some sliders and wedges: 

[snowray]

24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lovely Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, cold outbreak looks certain now, tons of support for it and I'm expecting more upgrades than downgrades as the models firm up...and then longer term..potentially even more wintry...looks like all that patience will be rewarded..and then some!

Yes I'm loving that Karl, I thought it would be an outlier by D10. I'm starting to get a bit excited now, think we will get some decent snow and cold before too long after all.

If I can build just a mini snowman down here by the end of the winter I'll take a picture of it and put it up, I can then get rid of them snowman biscuits, but they were the closest that I have got to a snowman so far this winter so I thought better than nothing.

Edited January 12, 2019 by snowray

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles watch

Looking at members with 850Hpa of minus 5 or below for large parts of the UK:

D11 36 yes, 15 no

D13 36 yes, 15 no (though different runs)

D15 36 yes, 15 no (again, some different runs)

Still remarkable consistency for cold for such a long way out

Edit: forgot to mention, probably half of the runs which failed to show minus 5 uppers at the precise time had very cold air very close by, either leaving or about to come in. 

Edited January 12, 2019 by Man With Beard

[BurntFishTrousers]

[summer blizzard]

As much as some have been overly despondent tonight we do have some progress to day 8.

At day 5 we get a sharp northerly.

At days 6 and 7 a surface ridge develops with cold air over the UK.

At day 8 low pressure approaches the west while weakening and likely produces snow.

 

Afterwards is where the models differ.

Edited January 12, 2019 by summer blizzard

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles watch

Looking at members with 850Hpa of minus 5 or below for large parts of the UK:

D11 36 yes, 15 no

D13 36 yes, 15 no (though different runs)

D15 36 yes, 15 no (again, some different runs)

Still remarkable consistency for cold for such a long way out

Edit: forgot to mention, probably half of the runs which failed to show minus 5 uppers at the precise time had very cold air very close by, either leaving or about to come in. 

Cheers for the info on the ensembles. All looking good in the hood . Exciting times

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Awful chart for the South. If that verifies then there’ll be a lot of mixed feelings

 

BFTP

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Awful chart for the South. If that verifies then there’ll be a lot of mixed feelings

 

BFTP

It won't..

The same old imby-casting..

That will likely bite some on the a##e

Edit:..

I can apply both/factual data-and stats on this.

Its mindless ridicule!!!

Edited January 12, 2019 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles watch

Looking at members with 850Hpa of minus 5 or below for large parts of the UK:

D11 36 yes, 15 no

D13 36 yes, 15 no (though different runs)

D15 36 yes, 15 no (again, some different runs)

Still remarkable consistency for cold for such a long way out

So a good graph again? i will tell you whether i think its an upgrade or downgrade later.

[booferking]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Sometimes operationals can lead the way with the ensembles slowly following.

A simple summary from me of the current output is underwhelmed. We are still looking at a brief N,ly on the 17th followed by a possible marginal snow event on the 19th via a sliding LP. However any significant cold spell remains in distant F.I and we are now looking towards the end of Jan. Blocking towards Greenland/Iceland looks to be elusive until the end of Jan when just maybe this might occur. However if only I had pound for every GFS run that has shown a 1070mb GH at +300 plus!!

Are it could be the other way around no consistency from the op at the end of its run from the last 4 I'll take my chances with the mean.

Edited January 12, 2019 by booferking

[Mike Poole]

Well it's nose to cheek on the GFS T78, as the feline creature from the UK meets the continental snake..  

Edit, Worth adding for clarity  this post is not political, I just post what I see in the model output, that's all!

Edited January 12, 2019 by Mike Poole

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it's nose to cheek on the GFS T78, as the feline creature from the UK meets the continental snake..  

Cobra run inbound?

[Mair Snaw]

14 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Awful chart for the South. If that verifies then there’ll be a lot of mixed feelings

 

BFTP

Amazing chart for the North tho.. if that verifies there will be a lot of happy Northerners and us in Scotland

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So a good graph again? i will tell you whether i think its an upgrade or downgrade later.

I've just seen the mean chart - it's actually a sqidge less cold than yesterday's - London, for instance, meanders between minus 5 and minus 6, whereas yesterday it got below minus 6 at times. 

I feel I'm splitting hairs though. The overall picture is pretty similar to the past 48 hours. My personal threshold of 70% members in relative agreement has been met for several runs in a row now, and so I'm fairly confident that this cold spell will happen, and, judging by the number of runs between D11 and D15 with deepish lows in favourable positions, I think this cold spell will probably come with snow. The op run looks way out of kilter. 

Edited January 12, 2019 by Man With Beard

[SMU]

Another woeful GFS run - When will it get it right, its been poor for about 5 days now.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

I've just seen the mean chart - it's actually a sqidge less cold than yesterday's - London, for instance, meanders between minus 5 and minus 6, whereas yesterday it got below minus 6 at times. 

I feel I'm splitting hairs though. The overall picture is pretty similar to the past 48 hours. My personal threshold of 70% members in relative agreement has been met for several runs in a row now, and so I'm fairly confident that this cold spell will happen, and, judging by the number of runs between D11 and D15 with deepish lows in favourable positions, I think this cold spell will probably come with snow. The op run looks way out of kilter. 

Is it still on a downward trend at the end in the main or upward trend? thanks btw.

[shaky]

On a serious one now either gfs or ecm gona be horribly wrong about that slider!!gfs not backing down what so ever!!

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, the NH profile at the end of the eps is again reminiscent of early December modelling ahead of the scandi ridge which appeared from ‘nowhere’ ...... there doesn’t seem any reason why we couldn’t see a scandi ridge by day 13/15. 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

On a serious one now either gfs or ecm gona be horribly wrong about that slider!!gfs not backing down what so ever!!

And UKMO. I can’t see ECM and UKMO being wrong at around day 5 .