Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would like to see the ECM mean at 300 and 360 before i comment on whether i like the 240 chart!

A mean at that range is, well, pretty meaningless.

[Kev smith scfc]

5 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Maybe not Spain or Africa but forecast to move away from a pole ward jet towatds the equator, yes in the zone for the jet to fired up slightly but it certainly won't be a raging jet, low enough latitude wise so as too not cause us many issues going forward. 

By the 28 Jan we are still on the warm side of the jet,so it's February for cold.

[TEITS]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

But can anyone explain why the Ec op is continously a mild outlier at the end of run on it's suit??

Sometimes operationals can lead the way with the ensembles slowly following.

A simple summary from me of the current output is underwhelmed. We are still looking at a brief N,ly on the 17th followed by a possible marginal snow event on the 19th via a sliding LP. However any significant cold spell remains in distant F.I and we are now looking towards the end of Jan. Blocking towards Greenland/Iceland looks to be elusive until the end of Jan when just maybe this might occur. However if only I had pound for every GFS run that has shown a 1070mb GH at +300 plus!!

Edited January 12, 2019 by TEITS

[mulzy]

Ext EPS very similar to this morning's suite.  By day 15 some of the cold gets diluted out (as I said above, the trough moves a little bit west (even though heights around Greenland looking good) and of course at that range, there is a tendency to anchor back to climatology).  

Expect DeBilt 2m T ensembles to be very very good (at least up to day 13).

Edited January 12, 2019 by mulzy

[Mair Snaw]

Been away for some time.. but been keeping an eye on things in here and I must say some of the output is madness. I think many could do with a few days break from over analysis of each and every single model run. The trend is our friend currently and we need to take more time to listen to the big hitters in here as what they are currently saying makes a lot of sense and could save many of us the heart attack every few hours.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

A mean at that range is, well, pretty meaningless.

Nope, it will give you an indicator of whether there i any risk of a west based setup, whether theres any likelyhood of a Greenland high or not or whether it will just be a pathetic attempt at one.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope, it will give you an indicator of whether there i any risk of a west based setup, whether theres any likelyhood of a Greenland high or not or whether it will just be a pathetic attempt at one.

With this much scatter in the models? It will all cancel each other out.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS very similar to this morning's suite.  By day 15 some of the cold gets diluted out (as I said above, the trough moves a little bit west and of course at that range, there is a tendency to anchor back to climatology).  

Expect DeBilt 2m T ensembles to be very very good (at least up to day 13).

This is whats starting to worry me though,  will we start to see a rise on the 850's mean over the next 2 days and all this spell ends up being is a very fleeting Euro trough and then back to mild.- hope not but its a possibility.

[knocker]

The Atlantic ridging does not appear quite so strong on the ext mean EPS anomaly this evening albeit the Iceland/east Greenland element is still there, as is the quite intense trough which is slipping a tad south west. So with a lot of energy exiting the eastern seaboard, some of which will be diverted around the Greenland ridge, the door may be ajar for the rest to swing around the Atlantic high pressure to descend on the UK. This would portend some quite unsettled weather hitting temps a fair bit below average so potentially a mixture of wintry conditions. This is a long way from being written in stone and something the det runs will have to sort

[shotski]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would like to see the ECM mean at 300 and 360 before i comment on whether i like the 240 chart!

 

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is whats starting to worry me though,  will we start to see a rise on the 850's mean over the next 2 days and all this spell ends up being is a very fleeting Euro trough and then back to mild.- hope not but its a possibility.

Nothing to lose sleep over - it's a small risk (for now).

[helentheroberts]

15 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Maybe not Spain or Africa but forecast to move away from a pole ward jet towatds the equator, yes in the zone for the jet to fired up slightly but it certainly won't be a raging jet, low enough latitude wise so as too not cause us many issues going forward. 

 I can't understand that chart yet. What does it show? If the jet is not pushed south until the 28th, where is it set up? 

[ghoneym]

6 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

By the 28 Jan we are still on the warm side of the jet,so it's February for cold.

I wouldn't say so, remember the phase chart I show was for the North Pacific, the reduction in MJO activity, moving into COD will allow the jet to drop down so to speak, as it progresses into the Atlantic this effect will carry on. Like whipping a rope on the ground, holding it at the far western side of the pacific, the cold is coming, before February as well, the charts are now showing that quite clearly to me

[ghoneym]

3 minutes ago, helentheroberts said:

 I can't understand that chart yet. What does it show? If the jet is not pushed south until the 28th, where is it set up? 

Have a read here, explains it quite well I think

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/Deterministic_NPJPD.php

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

With this much scatter in the models? It will all cancel each other out.

I wish that type of logic would apply to the ongoing mood of the thread?

Anywho, here's the 12Z GFS 850 ensemble for Suffolk:

I don't think it's at all bad, really?? Only ONE run finishing above 0C?

Edited January 12, 2019 by Ed Stone

[ICE COLD]

Well at least the ECM op was an outlier. The mean looking good at T240 . 

And too add to this the long range BBC. Looking good

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Nothing to lose sleep over - it's a small risk (for now).

Again though, i always use my own instincts and the amount of times when a cold spell starts or is about to start and the signals point to it being long, and just at the back end of the ens graph you see a tiny uptick in temps, and you query it on here and everyone says its just the features re-orientating, or oh its just brief and then not only does it tick down, it actually accelerates the breakdown, the amount of times i have seen this happen - not saying im forecasting it yet, but it does happen a lot.

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Again though, i always use my own instincts and the amount of times when a cold spell starts or is about to start and the signals point to it being long, and just at the back end of the ens graph you see a tiny uptick in temps, and you query it on here and everyone says its just the features re-orientating, or oh its just brief and then not only does it tick down, it actually accelerates the breakdown, the amount of times i have seen this happen - not saying im forecasting it yet, but it does happen a lot.

GEFS 12z look good tonight feb as in there is more flat lining runs . An indication that it could be more substantial cold for longer , rather than fleeting blows ?  

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

some kind of detail to explain this wouldnt go a miss. some us less experienced members have no idea what this means at all.

Thats the Debilt T2M ensembles out to day 15

Along the run you can ( probably ) select any timestamp & it gives you the temp of the control ( in blue ) & the mean ( red ) of all 50 Runs (middleste)

The mean from day 6 sits around 1c by day & -3c by night- 

At this stage its slightly less important as we are not expecting to import much of an Easterly flow-

[bluearmy]

Reading through a few hours of this after being away is quite amusing ....

steady as she goes 

another rogue ec op past day 6/7

anyone noticed that the systems are correcting further west as they come into a more reliable timeframe. That drop of the  Canadian vortex chunk across us could well be down the west side of the uk which poses a small risk but also a larger reward as we stay in continental flow .... the control ec is where I expected the op to go .........hopefully it will in the morning. 

[Dean E]

While we are in the lull, I'd thought I'd add my two cents.

Since model watching from a teenage year (cool kid) to currently studying it in my masters, I've found/been taught to never take one run as the 'end of all weather'. I think some are in need of a little model detox!

Also, trends are always your friends in many ways. I'm liking the new trend of the ECM recently promoting a surge of cold NW'lys, which at the moment where the proper cold sits. 

Pretty sure many more experience model watchers and meteorologists have said the same. The North or NW is where we need to look for the first attack, I believe the same.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GEFS 12z look good tonight feb as in there is more flat lining runs . An indication that it could be more substantial cold for longer , rather than fleeting blows ?  

Yes GEFS ok although had a slight wobble with more going mild in the mid range - trending down at the end again - the eps are good generally but there has just started to be some milder runs at the end - with the mean flatting out and just looking like it might trend back up again.

[bazookabob]

21 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GEFS 12z look good tonight feb as in there is more flat lining runs . An indication that it could be more substantial cold for longer , rather than fleeting blows ?  

I like the clustering at the end... Lots of members bunched below the mean at around -8 and just a few very mild ones skewing the mean up to -5.

[shaky]

Icon more amplified and big improvement at 108 hours!!!

[snowray]

Big improvement on the ICON as we go towards D5, even better than the 06z.