Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM mean all the way to day 10 is superb-

It certainly is Steve- its an upgarde ..

day 10

Edited January 12, 2019 by northwestsnow

[karlos1983]

What’s that on the ECM Mean? Yes that’s Atllantic Ridging I do believe, that’s not showing absolutely anywhere

With a very strong cold signal

Edited January 12, 2019 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

28 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Perhaps for your location

We got a foot of snow here last March from the last SSW

Yes and if you are to be totally honest that is as rare as rare can be in your location, you might wait 30 years for that whereas other parts of the UK could well see that again this Winter .

[ICE COLD]

WOW WOW WOW. The mean is superb . New the op was being a bag

[carinthian]

50 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Well, ECM not what I would like to see. No easterly from this run. Looks feasible out to 144t with possible trough disruption then pushes the warmer air mass through out at a pace to be followed by what looks like a strong westerly for a time. I am not buying this run. There is no consistency with its recent op outputs. Put it to bed.

 C

This operational chart 850mb temp profile chart (240t ) from ECM does not paint a pretty picture for the British Isles. About the warmest place for its latitude in the whole of the Northern Hemisphere, which in its self is no surprise but based on recent forecasts is not a good chart , especially as the westerly jet  is fired up impressively at this time. Lets hope this is a rogue run. Sure these charts post 144 t from latest ECM run will not verify.

C

Edited January 12, 2019 by carinthian

[Banbury]

28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM May be cold early on but only has a dusting of snow. Day 10 is awefull, no other way of putting it. Let’s hope GFSp is correct and ECM is a mild outlier and reverts to earlier output tomorrow 

But if ECM has as many frames as GFS you'd be saying great run from ECM , GFS pulls itself out **** quite often with some great frames after 240 ………...and if you look at 240 what's coming after looks v good, but all in FI of course 

[Wilxy]

And relax!

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What’s that on the ECM Mean? Yes that’s Atllantic Ridging I do believe that’s not showing absolutely anywhere

With a very strong cold signal

There must be some proper cold runs with the ENS to get this signal - makes me think day 6 is still FI and plenty of “cold” options are still on the table.

Edited January 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

Tim I really thought this was supposed to represent snow on the ground at the time? 

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It certainly is Steve- its an upgarde ..

day 10

Got to be wary that the trough doesn't move too far west - there are indications that this *may* happen on some of the eps suites later on.  A moderate risk (<25% imo) but worth stating. 

[karlos1983]

Outlier at towards the end. Not surprising.

[The Beast From The East]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What’s that on the ECM Mean? Yes that’s Atllantic Ridging I do believe, that’s not showing absolutely anywhere

With a very strong cold signal

Looks more like it...  ☺

@Glacier Point can I ask if you believe we are still on track? Thanks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

So is the reason for the not so good models today down to the Azors HP having more influence or being to close?  I believe it was @BLAST FROM THE PAST who was airing caution a few days ago about this HP out to our SW and that it's been a pain all winter so far.

Or is it more to do with where the bits of the PV look like ending up? ?

BFTE, I think it’s to do imo that our main winter thrust will be to do with the displacement of the PV to over us generally, small lobe first then major displacement last week of Jan where our cold will come from.  It’s a slow burner with the slug each time backing slowly west in its general position.  

 

BFTP

 

 

[Banbury]

15 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Has that ever been right ?

Yes

When its dry

[shotski]

Fear not guys

the ensemble members are still rock solid

[Singularity]

18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So the ECM op picks out an option for D10 that didn't even exist in the clusters this morning! 

For that reason alone, I'd suggest this is going to be an outlier, and that there is only a very small chance that it is repeated in tomorrow's runs. 

Yes... the broadness of the polar vortex lobe becomes pretty outrageous given we're not in a La Nina background; the flow really should buckle more - and from the looks of the EPS mean, this remains the favoured outcome by far.

I sense the end result won't be as a simple as the modelling currently suggests in the D9-D14 period though. A less uniform LP system with shortwave disturbances making things more fun/nerve-wracking on the SW flank.

For the longer-term, the MJO projections have trended more toward the Maritime Continent than yesterday, which would be unhelpful were it not for the fact that the downwelling of the SSW will very likely suppress the tropical activity in general, meaning it's only really got a chance of becoming influential where the SST anomalies are most supportive, which is in the Central Pacific... phase 7. In any case, there are indications for AAM to rise with the GWO heading through P5-P6 which ought to be very helpful for getting HLB to develop by late-month. 

I think that some loss of MJO contribution in the modelling has caused the slight fade of the HLB signal for late Jan into Feb, but the GWO contribution should make up for that - in ways that the models have always failed to pick up on outside of at most a week's range and sometimes just 4 days.

[northumberland snowman]

4 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

And relax!

Wow

???

[booferking]

But can anyone explain why the Ec op is continously a mild outlier at the end of run on it's suit??

Edited January 12, 2019 by booferking

[Djdazzle]

Great ECM mean! Talk about mood swings in here!

[Standfree 1903]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats fair enough Tim..

It is mainly cold and dry , OK a couple of milder days then look NW..ties in with Exeter for me, big cold push coming post day 10..

And Scotland? Knee deep

[matty40s]

10 minutes ago, carinthian said:

This chart 850mb temp profile chart (240t 0 from ECM does not paint a pretty picture for the British Isles. About the warmest place for its latitude in the whole of the Northern Hemisphere, which in its self is no surprise but based on recent forecasts is not a good chart , especially as the westerly jet  is fired up impressively at this time. Lets hope this is a rogue run. Sure these charts post 144 t from latest ECM run will not verify.

C

I think if you look at Knockers recent Jet chart from the ECM, it is driving that green slushy spike to the UK. 

The strong Canadian lobe and the Southern US warmth is driving that jet and it may well be why the ECM is delivering what it is,  whether we like it or not!!!

[ghoneym]

16 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

 

Good observation,can anyone on this forum show me evidence of the jetstream going on its hols to southern Spain or North Africa ,if not forget a very cold spell the jet rules uk weather end of.

Maybe not Spain or Africa but forecast to move away from a pole ward jet towatds the equator, yes in the zone for the jet to fired up slightly but it certainly won't be a raging jet, low enough latitude wise so as too not cause us many issues going forward. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM mean all the way to day 10 is superb-

yes Steve good looking ECM ensembles nothing panic worthy to see here all on course as far as cold / possible snow is concerned

ensemble ECMWF/IFS 12z 240h   again signal for a near linkup of above average heights Atlantic / Greenland / Arctic ,  days 5 - 9  days 6 - 10 

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z 

        

    

GEM 240h

 

Edited January 12, 2019 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[feb1991blizzard]

I would like to see the ECM mean at 300 and 360 before i comment on whether i like the 240 chart!

[Mike Poole]

Minded to ask the tropospheric vortex - why the long face?

I like the ECM ensemble mean but as always want to see the clusters.  For info, the spread at T240 most uncertainty in the Atlantic, nothing new there!

But I think the broad picture of cold incoming is clear, how long is only slightly less clear, #FrozenFebruary