Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Man With Beard]

So the ECM op picks out an option for D10 that didn't even exist in the clusters this morning! 

For that reason alone, I'd suggest this is going to be an outlier, and that there is only a very small chance that it is repeated in tomorrow's runs. 

[Skyraker]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes but even in an 'average' winter you'd expect instances where this is the case. A glancing blow of -8 uppers (I say glancing because of their limited reach), is pretty standard for January. Heck I even had 10cm of snow in winter 2007!

Remember Ian Brown, modern winters and years without the 528 dam line breaching the borders?

Those were dark times.

[mulzy]

Incredible that some of us are obsessing about day 9/10 det runs.  Relax folks, it's going to get colder (maybe even very cold) with some snow in places.  There will be ups and downs but the destination looks to be the same.

Edited January 12, 2019 by mulzy

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

looking  at that  still  looking good  from jan 20  cant wait  for the pub run  later

[PsychedelicTony]

7 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Those craving an easterly are perhaps missing the point of how epic a set up like this can be and what it can 

potentially deliver. 

This type of setup with marginal polar maritime incursions can deliver round after round of very snowy conditions instead of a one shot Atlantic battle with entrenched cold. We could be talking feet of snow over almost a month, however possible rain events will be interspersed with a following snowy reload.

I personally would rather roll the dice and have a history book set of events than play safe and rely on lake effect snow from an easterly. We’ve had that, it’s nice, but it’s not epic.

 

This could be.

Point taken but it can be epic for some locations, witness last Feb/March. Drifts up to upper bedroom windows. That is epic.

At the moment though the output does look like typical winter fare on offer. I think because we didn't know about the effect of SSW in years gone by, coupled with the results of the one last winter has resulted in lofty expectations after this current warming.

I wouldn't be ruling out a good dumping of snow anywhere. But at the moment the model output looks like, you know, like a normal winter cold interlude.

Edited January 12, 2019 by PsychedelicTony

[Froze were the Days]

Glad somebody has a crystal ball - thanks Mulzy  ...just as much obsessing over 300+ hour runs on the gfs/p which frankly has been throwing a few out of late (onto something?) who knows.

[Uncle_Barty]

In my view, there is nothing in the output to suggest much more than a brief cold snap in prospect.

There is no real sign of high lat blocking in the forseeable, and that is a problem for those hoping for a decent spell of proper winter weather.

That is not to say that things could look much more hopeful on that score seven days from now, however. Things can change quite quickly.

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Incredible that some of us are obsessing about day 9/10 det runs.  Relax folks, it's going to get colder (maybe even very cold) with some snow in places.  There will be ups and downs but the destination looks to be the same.

Spot on mulzy . Look forward to hearing from you in a bit regarding the extended eps .

[The Beast From The East]

So is the reason for the not so good models today down to the Azors HP having more influence or being to close?  I believe it was @BLAST FROM THE PAST who was airing caution a few days ago about this HP out to our SW and that it's been a pain all winter so far.

Or is it more to do with where the bits of the PV look like ending up? ?

Edited January 12, 2019 by The BEAST From The East
Edit

[nick sussex]

Days 9 and 10 on the ECM are a long way ahead given the chopping and changing between runs . A lot can change by then and probably will.

In the nearer term the Euros look fine.  

[Tim Bland]

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

[Ali1977]

I’m wanting early cold as only in the UK 13-23rd, looks like I may miss out on any decent snow events but without doubt it’s going to turn colder - even with the mildest of the models. ECM and UKMO will be close to ice days near the end. The rest of you have no worries, the UK will be going into the freezer later in Jan and Feb, I really think it’s a given - longevity maybe not. A few tweet reply’s from Ian F to people today make me think this could be a pretty epic spell though, and carry on well into Feb and possibly beyond.

Everyone stay calm, and enjoy more and more boom runs over the next however long - they won’t be in FI for long ? 

Edited January 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[Lampostwatcher]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

Has that ever been right ?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

And thats on a chart that usually exaggerates massively the snow - so you'll be lucky to get any.

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Those craving an easterly are perhaps missing the point of how epic a set up like this can be and what it can 

potentially deliver. 

This type of setup with marginal polar maritime incursions can deliver round after round of very snowy conditions instead of a one shot Atlantic battle with entrenched cold. We could be talking feet of snow over almost a month, however possible rain events will be interspersed with a following snowy reload.

I personally would rather roll the dice and have a history book set of events than play safe and rely on lake effect snow from an easterly. We’ve had that, it’s nice, but it’s not epic.

 

This could be.

I believe an Easterly is on the cards myself, and next week's mid to long-range outputs will regularly suggest such options, as per my post from earlier. My advice to all newbies and those learning the meteorology game is to watch the ensembles spreads and the snow symbols ever so carefully and look for steady rises in snow chance percentages.

Edited January 12, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

Thats fair enough Tim..

It is mainly cold and dry , OK a couple of milder days then look NW..ties in with Exeter for me, big cold push coming post day 10..

[Dennis]

Casino royale on the charts

[A.J]

reading quite a few posts infers that some members think that the likes of Chionomaniac, Lorenzo, Catacol, BB62/63 et al either don't exist, are on their 'blocked members' list or simply think that they know much better than said posters...(they don't).....These guys are seasoned and learned model watchers, they are not mega-cold rampers and say it how it is and give sound and in depth analysis on background drivers and how the outputs are more likely to pan out....go and have a look at their very recent posting history in this thread, the strat thread and others.....and then come back and say 'the outlook is poor'....'winter is over' etc etc!! good grief!

Edited January 12, 2019 by beerandkebab

[Kev smith scfc]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Merely an observation because of it's strength but at the end of the ecm the jet is impressive

 

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Up to +192 hours I thought the ECM looked quite similar to its seasonal model output (which has done well so far this winter), with high pressure to our west/south west. Further ahead the seasonal model has a strong signal for higher than average pressure to our north west, so I wouldn’t worry too much that daily model shows something different and less favourable for cold. Plus the fact it’s so different to this morning’s update (unlike the very consistent seasonal model output).

Good observation,can anyone on this forum show me evidence of the jetstream going on its hols to southern Spain or North Africa ,if not forget a very cold spell the jet rules uk weather end of.

[edo]

22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Perhaps for your location

We got a foot of snow here last March from the last SSW

i think this is the problem, your viewing the models with a pretty high benchmark and of course for your location

for NE scotland it looks like a decent spell of winter weather and believe it or not we have not been blessed with much the last few winters

[Ali1977]

ECM mean at 120 is v good 

144 still good

168 uppers Up to -4 but profile looks good

192 better, 216 cold back in. This really is a good mean 

Well look at 240 and say that is t good, the next frame would be epic, and v cold. Great mean .

Edited January 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[Roger J Smith]

ECM and GFS diverging after day 8 on developments in eastern Canada, the ECM seems to want to intensify the PV in place while the GFS shows a clear retrogression from south of Baffin Island to northern Hudson Bay (although that completes after ECM time frame). This would have implications for credibility of ECM day 9-10 return to rampant warmth although even if correct, not looking all that long-lived. 

I do think the undercut or slider scenario around Friday-Saturday holds a key and could begin to lock a colder pattern into place, will be watching ECM on both sides of Atlantic as the current scenario unleashes a monster storm onto the east coast of the US by 20th-21st. GFS has a weaker version cutting more inland over eastern Canada eventually, and follows that up with an intense Great Lakes cold core low that would be eddying back north into that retrograde PV, a development which would probably be quite good for Scandi to Greenland high pressure development even if that not yet shown on days 13-16, would look for perturbations in ensemble with that feature as being a possible outcome.

Would be expecting interesting and somewhat variable weather trends through rest of January leading to sustained and major cold in late January and a considerable portion of February perhaps all of it with these very unusual synoptics starting to show up in eastern NA, if we get high amplitude patterns with retrogression, large anomalies will develop and Britain very likely to be near core of cold anomaly if Greenland goes warm. 

[SMU]

ECM mean all the way to day 10 is superb-

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z enemble mean, first at T144 to see to what extent it supports the op, well good agreement in this case!

And at T240:

Outstanding for a mean at 10 days, happy days!

[Sweatyman]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

Brilliant.  what a winter wonderland