Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

You have to question what’s going on! I mean the differences between this run and the earlier GFS at day ten .

 

See my earlier comment Nick, trust me what I suggest is a more balanced way

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

At the risk of becoming a bore.

Why are you or Nick S surprised at successive model runs 234-240h being not the same? Try checking the same run, yesterday with the one today etc.

Honestly you will get a more balanced view of just how the model is developing any particular theme.

In fact it’s almost unheard to get inter run consistency at that range! It amazes me how some members who have been on weather sites like this for years don’t grasp that! There is disagreement as early as day 6, let alone 9 and 10!

[knocker]

Having a quick glance at the 06 gfs and it would appear that th distribution of the energy exiting upstream from around the highly amplified ridge/trough complex over North America is perhaps key to the variation of the run from previous around next weekend, It appears crucial as the whether the subtropical high can amplify in the western atlantic, or not, and limit the energy tracking east/south east from Canada. If it doesn't you end up with the 0600 scenario. Easily remedied by midday and merely emphasises once again the futility of getting hung up on every six hour run

Edited January 12, 2019 by knocker

[Tim Bland]

[Vikos]

This draining of low GeoP from Canada twrds EU *stunned*

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Aye, kind of looks like GEFS most of them has chunk of the PV moving right over us! could be exceptionally snowy, thick heavy wet snow, south, drier snow north

[Leo97t]

Now that would be an evolution I'd like to see

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Having a quick glance at the 06 gfs and it would appear that th distribution of the energy exiting upstream from around the highly amplified ridge/trough complex over North America is perhaps key to the variation of the run from previous around next weekend, It appears crucial as the whether the subtropical high can amplify in the western atlantic, or not, and limit the energy tracking east/south east from Canada. If it doesn't you end up with the 0600 scenario. Easily remedied by midday and merely emphasises once again the futility of getting hung up on every six hour run

I would not disagree with that k. But it may be the difference in how the 00 and 06 handly the 500mb trough over Sardinia and Corsica which subsequently affects the surface feature over the Eastern Atlantic. I've lost count of the number of times I have suggested that it is 'usually' the upper air that drives the surface features not the other way round.

[Vikos]

The thing I don't catch is why most people still use the old GFS OP wich will be history in a couple of days and no more available to puplic. *confused*

[northwestsnow]

The theme of the low incoming post 144 seems to be the trigger for the change, as seen on GFS 6Z..

Exeter have updated and seems to agree, rain friday followed by colder unsettled weather with rain turning to snow almost anywhere, particularly northern and central areas...

Edited January 12, 2019 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

Is anyone else concerned that the last 2 GEFS suites have lifted the Euro trough out on the last 2 runs?

Edited January 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I would not disagree with that k. But it may be the difference in how the 00 and 06 handly the 500mb trough over Sardinia and Corsica which subsequently affects the surface feature over the Eastern Atlantic. I've lost count of the number of times I have suggested that it is 'usually' the upper air that drives the surface features not the other way round.

Yes indeed John. Some years ago I came across a quote from an old forecaster who said. "give me a 500mb chart and I'll give you a forecast". No. no. it wasn't you

[johnholmes]

Just now, knocker said:

Yes indeed John. Some years ago I came across a quote from an old forecaster who said. "give me a 500mb chart and I'll give you a forecast". No. no. it wasn't you

It might well have been one of the instructors on either my AMC or AFC forecast courses. By the AFC the models were starting to get reliable but certainly not during the AMC 1972/3.

[Leo97t]

The para is a bonkers run in FL with a daily max of about - 4 for most parts of England from the 24th. Please verify! 

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, Vikos said:

wich will be history in a couple of days and no more available to puplic. *confused*

No sir.  The FV3 rollout has been delayed.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

No sir.  The FV3 rollout has been delayed.

How long for please sir?

[kumquat]

5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

The para is a bonkers run in FL with a daily max of about - 4 for most parts of England from the 24th. Please verify! 

Indeed. Almost entirely lower than -4 850 air aloft from 120hrs onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

How long for please sir?

It was due to be out on the 19th but the continued USA government shutdown is likely to delay it until further notice

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How long for please sir?

I don't have that answer to that i'm afraid. NOAA doesn't either. They were hoping for February, but now they've said that's unlikely as well.

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

No sir.  The FV3 rollout has been delayed.

Ok, that's new to me, but still the Para is the advanced modell, as some reviews here has shown recently (comparing prediction and outcome over a period of 10 days)... but everybody is free to use whatever he likes and suits his favors. Me for myself I dond't care anymore anout the GFS OP Outputs and stick to Para and IFS

[IDO]

Just now, Vikos said:

Ok, that's new to me, but still the Para is the advanced modell, as some reviews here has shown recently (comparing prediction and outcome over a period of 10 days)... but everybody is free to use whatever he likes and suits his favors. Me for myself I dond't care anymore anout the GFS OP Outputs and stick to Para and IFS

It may be delayed for some time, as continually it performs below the current GFS at D10. Not by much, but to call it an upgrade at the moment may not apply for performance:

[blizzard81]

What's happened to the wedge and subsequent slider? 

[Mike Poole]

Well hope GFS 6z has gone off on one and that doesn't verify, FV3 6z an excellent run.  And the GEFS 6z suite has some epic members, a few here at T276:

Interesting times.  Look forward to the 12s!

[Leo97t]

Oh dear! The mean is now only at - 2 850s at 324+ compared to - 6 two days ago at the same time 

[snowflakey]

52 minutes ago, Vikos said:

This draining of low GeoP from Canada twrds EU *stunned*

 

wow very impressive. The battle of the PV is usually between the Canadian and Siberian lobes, not that I know what I'm talking about