Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Look at its last four runs .... it can’t be leading the way in a different direction every 12 hours !

To be fair, every op run no matter which model we are referring to varies run to run. The last few ecm op runs have toyed with heights to our north/north east towards the end of the runs as opposed to heights to our north west. 

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would seriously wait until the end, looks like its going to be a stonker to me.

Glad you said that, thought I was going mad for a minute!!!  Looks to be shaping up nicely to me, this at 216 for a northwesterly into a northerly?

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Yay! West based nao forming. My favourite! In all seriousness just have to be patient and wait. The ecm and gloses are such an unbelievable signal that we would have to be unbelievably unlucky to get no deep cold

u.k. remember if it can go wrong it will,amazing how we can stay mild whilst rest of the NH can go in the freezer ,hopefully not this time!

[winterof79]

We are slowly developing our own little cold pool as has happened before.

As more lobes of the Canadian sister will join us.

Edited January 12, 2019 by winterof79

[nick sussex]

It’s hard to have any confidence in the array of solutions thrown up as each run puts the PV in a different place .

 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yay! West based nao forming. My favourite! In all seriousness just have to be patient and wait. The ecm and gloses are such an unbelievable signal that we would have to be unbelievably unlucky to get no deep cold

Indeed. And knowing our luck, we probably will be!

Let’s hope those longer range signals are on the money.

[Scandinavian High.]

I  disagree gfs looks wintery from north west we are not going in deep cold just yet. but we are going in right direction no need to be down beat.

[karlos1983]

Peach of a low res coming 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

We are slowly developing our own little cold pool as has happened before.

As more lobes or the Canadian sister will join us.

Again..

Canadian lobe will begin to drain-and migrate as she does..

No matter the current modeling...shes a breast feeder-...and the baby is becoming healthy!!!

 

Edited January 12, 2019 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Glad you said that, thought I was going mad for a minute!!!  Looks to be shaping up nicely to me, this at 216 for a northwesterly into a northerly?

Yes, i love the look of these 'west based' -NAO's - keep them coming!!!!!

[karlos1983]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Again..

Canadian lobe will begin to drain-and migrate as she does..

No matter the current modeling...shes a breast feeder-...and the baby is becoming healthy!!!

That’s post of the winter  

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s hard to have any confidence in the array of solutions thrown up as each run puts the PV in a different place .

 

Indeed, to prove your point here is the 6z at 234 vs the 0z at 240.  All roads still looking wintery though!!

  

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Again..

Canadian lobe will begin to drain-and migrate as she does..

No matter the current modeling...shes a breast feeder-...and the baby is becoming healthy!!!

best post ever!

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Again..

Canadian lobe will begin to drain-and migrate as she does..

No matter the current modeling...shes a breast feeder-...and the baby is becoming healthy!!!

 Funniest thing I've read on here in years! Quite an analogy haha.

[swfc]

Not understanding the panic today.the 6z is at day ten looking good nhp wise.very volatile time ie PV position but it is on the ropes!!!

[nick sussex]

You have to question what’s going on! I mean the differences between this run and the earlier GFS at day ten .

 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That’s post of the winter  

..

I had to take a step bk..and read that 1 myself....@rapid @plot losing!!

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Again..

Canadian lobe will begin to drain-and migrate as she does..

No matter the current modeling...shes a breast feeder-...and the baby is becoming healthy!!!

 

The baby has flocked the nest

Edited January 12, 2019 by karlos1983

[Tim Bland]

Another snowy GFS... 

[Methuselah]

Looking good, the micro-details hardly matter - defo cold slider-potential - snow's a-comin!

  

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Again..

Canadian lobe will begin to drain-and migrate as she does..

No matter the current modeling...shes a breast feeder-...and the baby is becoming healthy!!!

 

Yes resistance is futile, the more she reaches out to her Siberian sibling the stronger our cold pool will become.

 

[tight isobar]

21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes resistance is futile, the more she reaches out to her Siberian sibling the stronger our cold pool will become.

 

Agreed..

And certainly a-more definitive description!!..

Edited January 12, 2019 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You have to question what’s going on! I mean the differences between this run and the earlier GFS at day ten .

 

Come on Nick, you're always warning us that the shortwave pattern at as low a range as 120 or evn 96 can derail things, surely you are not in this fluid, ever evolving situation expecting operational run to run consistency (especially from the GFS), i know you don't like ensembles but trust me - stick to your ensemble means at 240 and clusters at 384, the ensembles are still consistent with the pattern - broadly, of course there are subtle differences like i pointed out about the 0z GEFSsuite.

Edited January 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Devonshire]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

No just telling it like it is ! I don’t do spin .

Given your location, sometimes I am not sure if your reading of the models - and consequent up-beat or down-beat reactions - concern SW France or UK. Most on here interested in UK, and might be mislead if you are giving a downbeat analysis that is based on your neck of the woods. I know you sometimes mention where you are referencing, but not in the post above about flattening pattern. A southerly tracking jet might bring mild,  wet and windy to SW France when we are in cold and snowy land in UK - and flatter in SW France is not likely to be so much a problem for UK coldies!

Edited January 12, 2019 by Devonshire
typo!

[lawrenk]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

..

I had to take a step bk..and read that 1 myself....@rapid @plot losing!!

Don’t stop mate!