Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[nick sussex]

54 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I know Nick. I always enjoy the reasoning you put into your posts and you are right to point out the pitfalls that could scupper things. It's just that most of your recent posts did seemed to fit into the 'we,re all doomed' category. Lol

Thanks . Did I really sound that miserable ! I was quite positive yesterday at times , perhaps you caught me in one of my more miserable moments! Anyway happy with the ICON 06 hrs run, there I’ve shocked you ! Lol

[Easton Luna Boys]

5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

he just contradicted his post anyway saying don’t second guess the longer ranger output,then basically writes off the chance of much colder weather by 2nd guessing the longer ranger output

 ? Not sure where I write off colder weather?? Lol.

Have made reference to a cooler polar maritime flow and then mentioned caution longer term (SSW or otherwise) as FI is still in FI. 

The train isn't coming until you can see the train...

[Sweatyman]

55 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Everybody is so obsessed about 7-10 days away all the time, yes I’d like to no how cold and will it snow too but nobody or no model will have a clue exactly how cold or snowy that far out so it really dosnt matter if it’s slightly better or slightly worse than the last run. We all no this but sometimes reading stuff in here is as if we think it’s nailed regardless.

people who come on here that really haven’t a clue and are just trying to learn must be very confused indeed from one to another 

some always looking for a breakdown before its even here

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

some always looking for a breakdown before its even here

Isn’t that part of trying to establish how long the cold might last ?  Snap, spell or period ?????

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean it turns cold and stays cold, some days colder than others but nothing mild indicated in the extended range..as I've said earlier, delightful output compared to the mildish benign dross which has dominated this winter so far!!..wintry fun and games to come i'm very pleased to say..winter we have lift-off!!

[shaky]

Gfs 06z looks even worse for the slider!!!if it slides from there i dunno what to think anymore lol!!

[WhiteFox]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

‘Loses the plot ‘ = goes against all known model guidance outside of its reliable period (both current and over previous days) rather than shows something we aren’t keen to see (as is sometimes posted on here )

i stand by my original post white fox  ......

Not the place for this discussion, but it is a possible outcome if we like it or not! If we assume that the information being input is perfect (which it is not of course), and the model uses exactly the same algorithms as previous runs (which it does) then it exactly follows previous model guidance. 

That is not losing the plot, it is coming up with an outcome based on the inputs; the rules of the model have not changed. The difference is likely to be the input data and the difficulty handling the particular dynamics at play in this situation.

We're arguing on the same side which is that we cannot make a judgement on a single operational run, and that the outcome is unlikely (albeit an unlikely possibility) due to the rarely modelled background signals...

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs 06z looks even worse for the slider!!!if it slides from there i dunno what to think anymore lol!!

Could easily slide. Not hanging my hat on it though.

Edited January 12, 2019 by winterof79

[blizzard81]

Much flatter in the Atlantic at day 5 compared to yesterday's run. Not good. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs 06z looks even worse for the slider!!!if it slides from there i dunno what to think anymore lol!!

Any chance of posting a chart showing this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[shaky]

Good gosh where has all the blocking gone on the 06z!!this is a serious worry man!!looks completely different to the last few out puts!!its close to pure zonality!!!i dont care if people bang on bout its the 06z its still a reliable run!!

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Much flatter in the Atlantic at day 5 compared to yesterday's run. Not good. 

Pants this run I'm afraid.

Next.......

Edit. We will still end up with a flabby low though I think and awaiting the next system to join it

Edited January 12, 2019 by winterof79

[Djdazzle]

Just shows that despite some of the hysteria yesterday, nothing is yet guaranteed. 

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good gosh where has all the blocking gone on the 06z!!this is a serious worry man!!looks completely different to the last few out puts!!its close to pure zonality!!!i dont care if people bang on bout its the 06z its still a reliable run!!

The ridging to the south west and Atlantic is slightly stronger hence the low doesn't slide.shoudnt be a problem tbh going forward imo

Edited January 12, 2019 by swfc

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Good gosh where has all the blocking gone on the 06z!!this is a serious worry man!!looks completely different to the last few out puts!!its close to pure zonality!!!i dont care if people bang on bout its the 06z its still a reliable run!!

There is something flattening the upstream pattern in the 5 to 7 day timeframe this winter. Not sure what it is but it's been happening all winter. So when days 8 to 10 work down to days 5 to 7, things don't look anywhere near as good as they did. 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Good gosh where has all the blocking gone on the 06z!!this is a serious worry man!!looks completely different to the last few out puts!!its close to pure zonality!!!i dont care if people bang on bout its the 06z its still a reliable run!!

If you’re referring to the wedges then by definition, they are unreliably modelled until the modelling gets to day 3/5

there isn’t any blocking showing away from the Azores ridge in the mid Atlantic at a fairly low amplitude 

just another option that fits the general guidance (in contrast to the ec op) 

Edited January 12, 2019 by bluearmy

[winterof79]

Here comes reinforcements 

[blizzard81]

And for those just dismissing the ecm op out of hand, do so at their own peril. It very often leads the way when the other models still have their blinkers on. 

[SLEETY]

dreadful gfs runhope the actual outcome is better this run is too flat againl

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

And for those just dismissing the ecm op out of hand, do so at their own peril. It very often leads the way when the other models still have their blinkers on. 

I don't care if it is on the money, i would rather it fit in with the ec46 and the general expectation but the 240 is still good, if we have to go straight for scandi high option without the Greenland or iceland or wedges option first then so be it, as long as its snow!!!

Edited January 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Leo97t]

Looks no worse than anything else this morning. At no stage have been looking at a very cold pattern but just perhaps some snow on high ground in the north. At least 26th before we see anything proper imo. Too much cold air over the states reinforcing the jet...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

dreadful gfs runhope the actual outcome is better this run is too flat againl

I would seriously wait until the end, looks like its going to be a stonker to me.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

And for those just dismissing the ecm op out of hand, do so at their own peril. It very often leads the way when the other models still have their blinkers on. 

Look at its last four runs .... it can’t be leading the way in a different direction every 12 hours !

[KTtom]

Things shaping up very nicely in the Atlantic...a northerly far more likely than an easterly which fits in with the ec46

 

[Leo97t]

Yay! West based nao forming. My favourite! In all seriousness just have to be patient and wait. The ecm and gloses are such an unbelievable signal that we would have to be unbelievably unlucky to get no deep cold