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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, shotski said:

JMA Monthly looks superb and is very consistent to what it’s been offering for a few weeks now. Maybe not Cat litter after all

Tip; turn your screen upside down

137502E2-3C67-4566-BF74-8864848FE457.png

4F1DDF6B-A62D-437F-84FB-B3D967D45D46.png

It wasn’t so good last week .... so now all the LR models are in a similar place for feb

CFS

JMA

EC46

glosea (probably)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It wasn’t so good last week .... so now all the LR models are in a similar place for feb

CFS

JMA

EC46

glosea (probably)

 

It was because I posted it on here. Take a look back  

0B99D607-7ECA-4D35-978F-D0A21F91B778.png

Edited by shotski
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Here’s hoping that a Wedge from the West leads to a Beast from the East on this ECM run. Would finish the working week off nicely. The usual swings this week but a good weeks model watching and now the pattern is a lot closer to the reliable. Next week we will have to watch shorter term for the slider show, and FI watching longer term, for the blocking show.

3

Two shows for the price of one and hopefully more shows means more snow. A fascinating time to be interested in this learning game, that is meteorology. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, shotski said:

It was because I posted it on here. Take a look back  

Oh .... I remember bastardi lamenting it last Thursday ....... perhaps it was just bad upstream then ......

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
4 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Para ends like this...CB74CEF7-EC9D-49FE-9D9C-1005DE814714.thumb.png.3f70cb767f72c73e41b7ea98697a5fe6.png

I think my wife is going to leave me, she said I spend more time on this forum than with her 

 

My wife says similar to me.  " you and the bloody weather" lol

Anyway things are most certainly improving this week overall so far on the output regarding cold. Long may it continue.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

All quiet ref the ECM!! 168 isn’t that impressive just yet.

13BBB569-3298-4164-B113-5E1B47738044.png

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Who else gets the feeling that we have turned the corner and are ready for upgrades as the days get closer? I wouldn’t be surprised if this actually turns out to be a bit of a memorable time over the next few weeks. #gridlockbritan could well be a headline.

we can all hope

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Looks fine to me.

Would you or Ali be able to say why for either case?  Not being pedantic just helps me out a bit?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

ensemble NAEFS 12z very slight changes in position of above average heights  with main core a bit nearer to Greenland than previous runs naefsnh-0-0-264.thumb.png.14a8209d7d2d3d3dfcafa7873c2049fa.png still ends with heights linking 1840858975_naefsnh-0-0-384(1).thumb.png.48cb5fe5f6bb2a030083ba45cdd0965c.png 

ensembles GEM 12z 

gensnh-1-1-384.thumb.png.b609e1064328205729654b9076d45b7f.pnggensnh-4-1-264.thumb.png.985646bd170891207b367ad45c0dd9cb.pnggensnh-4-1-312.thumb.png.bf6bebad442330d5c087e61d0eacd591.pnggensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.1a284676c92e552d03e5909b3fb62109.pnggensnh-5-3-384.thumb.png.ea398dd222550e87a6c9300a3bcfe67c.pnggensnh-6-1-312.thumb.png.5f64a01937885b40a51b49f52c7275c8.png      

gensnh-15-3-384.thumb.png.cc73f2588e9a7a677d5522b7a49eff6b.pnggensnh-18-3-312.thumb.png.ad91886e38a72a88116a2a8b7729dd53.pnggensnh-18-3-384.thumb.png.88976dda10e585c5d9ffe667ebba1af7.png   

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Could well be a slow moving/stalled front embedded here.....snow potential increasing.

EC12z

A3C56C0B-D40D-4C4D-9340-47A1E0554E6B.thumb.png.13b4c6f434eed1b16d7c74b0054014bc.png

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Everything pushed a little futher East ECM, would not worry past 144at present. Ecm not as cold as Gfs 168 but that's FI in this setup so no need to panic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
5 minutes ago, P-M said:

Would you or Ali be able to say why for either case?  Not being pedantic just helps me out a bit?

Already cold at the surface across the islands, troughing  into Iberia, the limpit high gone home to the Azores.

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