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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO 144 850s are good

B5C6E3CC-7E4F-4080-9675-2D925BD2490D.gif

Look what's about to head down the slide!!! Would love to see the 168 chart!!

image.thumb.png.703e35677ddf628cc38ed7fbf2d72322.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

That’s fairly solid agreement between the GFS and UKMO, finally? UKM marginally better

1093A19E-2252-4AD0-88D0-E9335367B86D.png

CCE8ED28-E524-40D0-B169-8547D0BA7064.gif

UKMO looks like a far better profile to hold onto the cold for longer, maybe helping with a potential slider further on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
13 minutes ago, madmunch said:

what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

T0hrs. As someone once famously said; the train isn't coming until you can see the train...

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, Ali1977 said:

UKMO looks like a far better profile to hold onto the cold for longer, maybe helping with a potential slider further on. 

As long as that LP doesn’t flatten the high SE would should be dandy with the trough from the NE over us, nothing nailed but I think a slider is looking ever more likely and if we can get it to slide a skew the jet we could be in business.

This high is like Lazarus though so I wouldn’t rule it out, surely at some point it must give in... it’s like a roulette wheel rolling 10 reds in a row, surely a Black is coming... probably  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

All going well at T+114. Looks like Guy's hopes for the HP not to build will not be met...

image.thumb.png.dd1c7146117bbd4da17e5288c0be73da.png

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO is great but not quite perfect- however well in the realms of correction being that 100 miles west would have had us saying it was amazing, where as people are unsure if its amazing or not-

its 8.5/10-

The cold air is in place & lots of convection to the NE however the little bump( circled ) from the azores ridge just nudges the core of the convection into the North sea -

Also that bump would mean the iceland low would have a few more degrees of correction to the East than before so maybe a temporarily milder blip for the SW etc- it also could bring widespread snow to the rest...

Other than that the post 144 signal is unchanged ....

A1A424F8-EF87-4BEA-82E3-E936421481E9.thumb.jpeg.bd1f0ec8f59d5e479ffb9c46b9bf6705.jpeg

What date was this for? 

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look what's about to head down the slide!!! Would love to see the 168 chart!!

image.thumb.png.703e35677ddf628cc38ed7fbf2d72322.png

is it? I'm not convinced, I can't see much of a "wedge" there to deflect it SE

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
46 minutes ago, Johnp said:

 

Help a newbie - at least spell the site correctly

Oh, one of my annual delights is the vast and initially baffling range of spellings for what I think is ARPEGE...  It's amazing how many different spellings turn up! 

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This GFS run looks better than the 6z and that ended pretty well so no complaints as yet

77848232-274E-4815-96CB-B99FCB8CDF8A.png

Its the flatter of the 2 runs & still pulls a good Northerly around 180

So UKMO would be a snow event plus a Northerly / NE flow after-

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
36 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Well said!  some of these charts are 10-12 days away and could be vastly different come tomorrow 

They've been 10-12 days away since the turn of the year ... groundhog day

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

@Kirkcaldyweather

 

Fair point and no probs.  I’m just so surprised at the ‘tenacity’ of the slug.  Roll on any upgrades and changes......they are just a month late from mpov!  

Chances are there and increasing no doubt...steady as she goes

 

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
19 minutes ago, EastAnglian said:

I am no expert just have a long and painful experience of model watching. The absolute maximum would be 5 days but I would say 2/3 was safer. If you look at other forecasts on TV, for example, take note of how far they are going ahead that will give you an idea of how confident the professionals are. Basically, if it can go wrong it will.

Might go right this time with all the signals looking strong. Perhaps we will start to see a few upgrades shortly now it’s moving into the reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Huge change on the GFS 12 hrs run. The mothership as in the PV lobe over Canada is unable at T186 hrs to bring supplies to the low to the nw . This should stop too much deepening with a better tilt to the jet .

Nice ridge to the north, surely even the GFS can’t ruin it now .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Stonker incoming!

image.thumb.png.3135caf918b55a40edf5e5c1e9df3d3c.png

(Atlantic) It’ll probably come through but I sense a much more slidergate scenario coming

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its the flatter of the 2 runs & still pulls a good Northerly around 180

So UKMO would be a snow event plus a Northerly / NE flow after-

Yes, Steve,the UKMO run heading for a snow event. GFS a bit warmer and slightly more progressive in its run up to 144t.. UKMO stays with its solid out puts.

 C

Edited by carinthian
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