Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Guest Delete Me]

Snow off a w'rly / nw'rly for the midlands, wales and north west starting next Friday in places according to BBC.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational turned into a stonking run for coldies and the Gefs 6z  is no different, stunning potential especially through the last third of January with an enhanced risk of snow, ice and severe frosts..some ice days for many..to me it's from around next thursday onwards when the wintry interest gathers momentum!

[iceman1991]

Anyone looked at gavsweathervids video on latest jma and cfs models  for mid to early feb very very interesting consistent signal for blocking over Greenland and  intensifying  Over the time with low pressure near or over us could be significant snow with that link below guys 

 

[Sweatyman]

18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

(I think this on topic).

Automated forecasts starting to show a downward trend in temperatures and increasing risk of sleet/snow. Good indication of what the models are showing. Although I don’t know what particular model this app gets it’s data from.

My location is very central, so a decent reference for the UK as a whole.

those forecasts are always hopeless. Keep that chart and show us again later !

[TEITS]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

All roads lead to snow, Karl...I must disagree with Dave (TEITS) about the lack of deep cold, as any 850s of -10 or below are deep enough for me; I'd rather that than -18 anyway!

 

GEFS T850 ensembles for Suffolk: I make that 11 members ending between -5 and -10C:

 

I admit the 06Z has improved my mood mate.

The 06Z is a good example of how you don't always need mega blocking to deliver the goods. Infact the 06Z reminds me of Feb 1979. I was only 8 yrs old but an E,ly developed that bought so much snow it made 1987 look like a dusting of snow!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Nice to see such a positive vibe among the posts in here today. 

 this was the kind of thing I am looking to see more of in the ensembles / GFS op in the next few days as I mentioned last night, slightly lower pressure on the slider / low and a bit further to our west helping to pull in a better E / NE flow  another GEFS member showing this  

 

 

ensemble ECMWF/IFS 0z

ensemble NAEFS 0z

  

I mentioned on Sunday some percentages of what directions conditions could be coming from as we move forward 

"overall 85%- low pressures starting to take a more NW - SE track and perhaps struggling to get much past the UK"  I think this is still a good percentage for this

"45% - Northerly  > North easterly (possibly then an easterly) " I will up this slightly to 50% 

35% -  "above average heights get into the right position and take us straight into an easterly" certainly some more runs thinking along these lines so again I will up this slightly to 40% 

20% - "the above average heights end up more of a west based - NAO / fail to develop over Greenland , scandi or the arctic or low pressures become too deep and head through the UK aka "zonal" could be a bit of a risk but I will drop this to 10% given outlooks ATM (I am still a bit wary of ending up with a west based - NAO as time goes on)

@BLAST FROM THE PAST dont be so quick to write off blocking setting up 

* not intended as picking you out mate just referring to you saying you dont think there will be any blocking, which is your opinion and certainly a valid one ( I will hold my hands up if you are right and I am wrong, just a bit of healthy weather prediction competition)*

ensembles GEM 0z         

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 0z

    

[nick sussex]

Far too many early celebrations in here and people are already deciding what outfit to stick on the snowman in their back garden !

Just because the current outputs look good doesn’t mean some new variables currently not seen might appear later on.

I’m not trying to being a misery but the really cold air is still not in the more reliable timeframe , and the best part can only happen once we get to see some stronger blocking which is still not a given .

As a coldie I’m happy with the trends but have been on this forum  for a very long time and have seen these premature celebrations turn very ugly if things don’t go as planned .

So cautiously optimistic is about as excited as I’m going to be for the timebeing !

 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I admit the 06Z has improved my mood mate.

The 06Z is a good example of how you don't always need mega blocking to deliver the goods. Infact the 06Z reminds me of Feb 1979. I was only 8 yrs old but an E,ly developed that bought so much snow it made 1987 look like a dusting of snow!

A funny thing that Dave ....growing up in the East Midlands in the seventies,   I always remember that area doing well for snow in easterlies or nor’easters

yet, the last decade has seen it much more hit and miss ...... must be a reason I suppose 

another memory which may prove valuable over the next month is in some of suppressed active southerly jet winters, we often saw the snow line somewhere between the M4 and the A50. And it persisted for many days that way ..........

[Spah1]

MO now going for 'Some drier, brighter, quieter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe'

FV3 teasing us with this.

Upgrades to continue in the next few days.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Far too many early celebrations in here and people are already deciding what outfit to stick on the snowman in their back garden !

Just because the current outputs look good doesn’t mean some new variables currently not seen might appear later on.

I’m not trying to being a misery but the really cold air is still not in the more reliable timeframe , and the best part can only happen once we get to see some stronger blocking which is still not a given .

As a coldie I’m happy with the trends but have been on this forum  for a very long time and have seen these premature celebrations turn very ugly if things don’t go as planned .

So cautiously optimistic is about as excited as I’m going to be for the timebeing !

 

I bet you took your tree down on the 26th! 

On a serious note, you aren’t wrong to urge some caution ..... we cannot simply descend from this point with daily upgrades ..... bound to be some swings and some of those swings may create a feature which could derail a good few days re the onset or the sustainability ...........

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

I bet you took your tree down on the 26th! 

On a serious note, you aren’t wrong to urge some caution ..... we cannot simply descend from this point with daily upgrades ..... bound to be some swings and some of those swings may create a feature which could derail a good few days re the onset or the sustainability ...........

Very funny ! No I’m one of those who wait for ages to take them down . I’ve actually still got my Christmas lights up although the tinsel has gone ! Sound advice BA I hope people listen to that .

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Far too many early celebrations in here and people are already deciding what outfit to stick on the snowman in their back garden !

Just because the current outputs look good doesn’t mean some new variables currently not seen might appear later on.

I’m not trying to being a misery but the really cold air is still not in the more reliable timeframe , and the best part can only happen once we get to see some stronger blocking which is still not a given .

As a coldie I’m happy with the trends but have been on this forum  for a very long time and have seen these premature celebrations turn very ugly if things don’t go as planned .

So cautiously optimistic is about as excited as I’m going to be for the timebeing !

 

Agreed. Things certainly taking shape but the really cold stuff is still some way from reliable. I think it’s a 50% chance now. Be optimistic folks, but don’t be expectant. Yet!

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I admit the 06Z has improved my mood mate.

The 06Z is a good example of how you don't always need mega blocking to deliver the goods. Infact the 06Z reminds me of Feb 1979. I was only 8 yrs old but an E,ly developed that bought so much snow it made 1987 look like a dusting of snow!

That would have been this event, I think, Dave; the best snow I'd seen for years, at the time:

                                                                            

And not a million miles, from some of the charts that're popping-up now?

[MidnightSnow]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Far too many early celebrations in here and people are already deciding what outfit to stick on the snowman in their back garden !

Just because the current outputs look good doesn’t mean some new variables currently not seen might appear later on.

I’m not trying to being a misery but the really cold air is still not in the more reliable timeframe , and the best part can only happen once we get to see some stronger blocking which is still not a given .

As a coldie I’m happy with the trends but have been on this forum  for a very long time and have seen these premature celebrations turn very ugly if things don’t go as planned .

So cautiously optimistic is about as excited as I’m going to be for the timebeing !

 

I agree but how often are these trends backed up by the MetO? I've been on here long enough to see countless numbers of dreamland FI charts.... but 9 times out of 10 they're not supported by the MetO. Should we give the current outputs more credence because of this?

[Weathizard]

Don’t need really deep cold to have memorable snow events though realistically, we could have -15 uppers a straight easterly and have nothing to show for it but a dropped jaw at the heating bill at the end of the month! For my location this isn’t the best set up first of all, but on a country wide scale if pure snow fall is what you’re after things look good.

Caution is definitely correct I agree on that one Nick, and normally I would completely agree but given background signals, the SSW and other drivers I think we are a lot more likely to see something noteworthy this time, I would still give the odds at no greater than 50:50 mind you because you can simply never be more confident of anything cold wise on this island, every setup is fraught with danger and the dreaded shortwave dramas

 

[lassie23]

25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Far too many early celebrations in here and people are already deciding what outfit to stick on the snowman in their back garden !

Just because the current outputs look good doesn’t mean some new variables currently not seen might appear later on.

I’m not trying to being a misery but the really cold air is still not in the more reliable timeframe , and the best part can only happen once we get to see some stronger blocking which is still not a given .

As a coldie I’m happy with the trends but have been on this forum  for a very long time and have seen these premature celebrations turn very ugly if things don’t go as planned .

So cautiously optimistic is about as excited as I’m going to be for the timebeing !

 

I won't be convinced until the snow is falling IMBY, but more hopeful than recently that this boring winter might actually get more interesting, which isn't hard considering I've had no weather since Christmas.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Need to see the milder options eliminated if central southern low lying areas are to see more than an inch of snowfall! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

best GFS of the season for me, but all pure FI, very cold from both directions, how's this for a W'ly, then an E'ly

 

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I admit the 06Z has improved my mood mate.

The 06Z is a good example of how you don't always need mega blocking to deliver the goods. Infact the 06Z reminds me of Feb 1979. I was only 8 yrs old but an E,ly developed that bought so much snow it made 1987 look like a dusting of snow!

Thats nice to hear Dave and i hope you are back to feeling well

[northwestsnow]

No cautious optimism from me, time to get the ramp out at long last!!

Of course i jest, i think, upgrades is todays buzzword, i missed the 6z but it has for sure followed EC 00 det with its progression..

From the perspective of someone living in the NW with reasonable altitude its quite exciting, i do hope the easterly comes off , its a pretty perfect time of winter for it to be coming really,so hopefully the NW gets some action later next week and then those in the south and east get in on the action thereafter ..

Fingers crossed..

In some respects i feel a bit guilty ramping away  with the horrible news about Diane Oxberry- i really hope she is up in Heaven looking down smiling on us crazy people..

RIP Diane.

 

[iceman1991]

Any one seen latest glosea Meto  new update   extensive northern blocking spring could be delayed maybe very interesting times a head just try to keep calm like other guys have said on here we’ve all been here before 

[WhiteFox]

52 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Far too many early celebrations in here and people are already deciding what outfit to stick on the snowman in their back garden !

Just because the current outputs look good doesn’t mean some new variables currently not seen might appear later on.

I’m not trying to being a misery but the really cold air is still not in the more reliable timeframe , and the best part can only happen once we get to see some stronger blocking which is still not a given .

As a coldie I’m happy with the trends but have been on this forum  for a very long time and have seen these premature celebrations turn very ugly if things don’t go as planned .

So cautiously optimistic is about as excited as I’m going to be for the timebeing !

 

I'd be in full agreement if we were chasing an end of line easterly facing up against an active jet which requires multiple shortwaves to phase in exactly the right way! Such has been the case in many a winter and they mostly end in disappointment.

But, the background signals are strongly in our favour. No matter what model you look at, they all show a split TPV devoloping. So, instead of hunting for a shot of cold against a background of a strong jet and organised TPV and a mild underlying setup, we are looking at generally cold background signals favouring an array of cold options.

That's not to say there won't be disappointment and milder spells within the period; but in all probability I think you will be searching for how we get the PPN amidst an already cold setup. So, yes, still room for the frantic chasing of spoiler shortwaves, but they won't derail the overall pattern IMHO.

Edited January 11, 2019 by WhiteFox
Typos

[WhiteFox]

14 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Need to see the milder options eliminated if central southern low lying areas are to see more than an inch of snowfall! 

They won't be eliminated until at least 7 days out (even then there will still likely be runs that show a brief warm sector passing through at some point). There are simply too many variables to allow for complete agreement beyond 7 days.

[Easton Luna Boys]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

The potential freeze is due to start the same week as 1947, and is forecast to last as long if not longer using today’s supercomputers so I think a chance, maybe not as severe as that would just be insane but anywhere close would still be an historic event. The powers at be will be watching closely and keeping in touch with the METO I’m sure. 

Whoa!! Easy tiger!

Ok, it looks likely that we'll have a downturn in temps in the mid term bringing some colder polar maritime air, with wet snow over the Pennines, Derbyshire et al but, beyond that, no one knows. Talking about 1947 is incredibly audacious!

[ITSY]

Just a dose of something sour to ensure we all don't get carried away into a narnia-induced coma. Zonal wind speeds in the Strat due to pick up and become mean westerly again by the last third of the month. As we know though, downwelling can take its time and the SPV will still be significantly weaker than normal, but worth noting for caution while we look at charts showing amazing anomalies for months on end...

Indeed, on the plus side, drawn from Marco Petangna's very interesting and insightful twitter feed, is that the SPV is currently at its weakest state on record for this time of year - which probably explains the ridiculous duration looming HLBs. Pick that one out! 

Edited January 11, 2019 by ITSY