Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[weirpig]

Just now, andymusic said:

Due to the quickly developing models churning out colder and colder solutions, they will sit a little more on the fence to not start causing any "panic" until absolutely sure and nearer the time it actually is gonna happen and then they will commit

Yes i agree  but for the next two weeks  there forecast is somewhat of an upgrade   

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Risky though wouldn’t take much for us to be on the wrong side of that mild/cold boundary 

Are we really discussing the potential perbs  of a opp chart  at 16 days away?.    me thinks we both need to get out more. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Due to the quickly developing models churning out colder and colder solutions, they will sit a little more on the fence to not start causing any "panic" until absolutely sure and nearer the time it actually is gonna happen and then they will commit

True, because after all, its not like their current forecast is suggesting a long protracted severe cold spell can't occur, they are merely suggesting it might not, so they can't really lose if it does.

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Risky though wouldn’t take much for us to be on the wrong side of that mild/cold boundary 

But those in the Sweet spot would get a hammering …………………...if only eh?

[danm]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

The end of the para is interesting as it shows a west based neg NAO setting up beyond the run ...... no reason to take it seriously at that range but we would generally not expect a cold period to just be cold for weeks without any spell where the pattern relented for a few days before re establishing ....... perhaps behpyond this run shows Exeter’s thoughts re those less cold interludes being possible 

Yes, quite rare in the UK for a cold spell to last for weeks without at least some milder interludes, particularly in the southern half of the country. So that is to be expected. 

[snowflakey]

I know GFS tends to overdoes these Atlantic storms , but one to watch in the next few days I feel 

[warrenb]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Yes, quite rare in the UK for a cold spell to last for weeks without at least some milder interludes, particularly in the southern half of the country. So that is to be expected. 

Indeed, down here even during Dec 2010 we had a few days or snow in the morning followed by a bit of rain, before the cold came back.

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Are we really discussing the potential perbs  of a opp chart  at 16 days away?.    me thinks we both need to get out more. 

I think you’re probably right

[knocker]

The clusters certainly put the upper trough in close proximity to the UK in the ext period

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think you’re probably right

He is but it’s no bad thing to remind people that we aren’t going to suddenly become the Canadian prairies ..........

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The clusters certainly put the upper trough in close proximity to the UK in the ext period

 

Are you concerned about Sidney knocks ??f

on a more serious note, the euro troughing remains a concern for coldies. Without any HLB in week 2, any deep cold is pretty reliant on that verifying and being notable. As I said earlier, we have seen many euro troughs either fail to verify or become a couple of days long having looked set for a long stay ......

week 3 is apparently likely to see n Atlantic/greeny ridging establish so the troughing to our south becomes a little less crucial although without it we are possibly struggling to advect the deep cold across the southern half uk 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

on a more serious note, the euro troughing remains a concern for coldies. Without any HLB in week 2, any deep cold is pretty reliant on that verifying and being notable.

I'd rather a euro trough than a euro ridge, that's for sure. At least keeps us in the ball game. The North East could do very well indeed.

[Snowjokes92]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Northern Blocking in full swing on the 1st met office ensemble mean map of 2019 for Feb to April

 

What i find even more interesting is the most intense lobe mean  is slap bang over us giving us the best chance at something very significant. A lot of long range models and ec 46 have been showing a similar lobe over the uk. We must have the best chance of another 1947 surely. And whats more all the combinated background signals are not comparable with any other year. It really does make you wonder what the potential implifications it would have with everything in the right place...

Edited January 11, 2019 by Snowjokes92

[Badgers01]

53 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 well well well it is about time the model outputs showed us some interesting charts  it is also interesting regarding the ECMWF 46 day  output how ever I will firmly keep my feet glued to the ground on till the Met office come on board 

exactly ! and we need cross model agreement and inter run consistency for 72 hours !!

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

 It really does make you wonder what the potential implifications it would have with everything in the right place...

Well we've just seen many parts of Central Europe struggle with heavy snow and they are accustomed to it. I doubt these island could cope any better.

Anyway, we're in danger of putting a voodoo spell on it, so lets not!

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

What i find even more interesting is the most intense lobe mean  is slap bang over us giving us the best chance at something very significant. A lot of long range models and ec 46 have been showing a similar lobe over the uk. We must have the best chance of another 1947 surely. And whats more all the combinated background signals are not comparable with any other year. It really does make you wonder what the potential implifications it would have with everything in the right place...

The potential freeze is due to start the same week as 1947, and is forecast to last as long if not longer using today’s supercomputers so I think a chance, maybe not as severe as that would just be insane but anywhere close would still be an historic event. The powers at be will be watching closely and keeping in touch with the METO I’m sure. 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

What i find even more interesting is the most intense lobe mean  is slap bang over us giving us the best chance at something very significant. A lot of long range models and ec 46 have been showing a similar lobe over the uk. We must have the best chance of another 1947 surely. And whats more all the combinated background signals are not comparable with any other year. It really does make you wonder what the potential implifications it would have with everything in the right place...

Er ....no.  We likely won’t see another 1947 in our lifetimes ........... why not start by aiming to get a couple weeks of cold and snow and take it from there ! 

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Are you concerned about Sidney knocks ??f

on a more serious note, the euro troughing remains a concern for coldies. Without any HLB in week 2, any deep cold is pretty reliant on that verifying and being notable. As I said earlier, we have seen many euro troughs either fail to verify or become a couple of days long having looked set for a long stay ......

week 3 is apparently likely to see n Atlantic/greeny ridging establish so the troughing to our south becomes a little less crucial although without it we are possibly struggling to advect the deep cold across the southern half uk 

He can always keep his nuts warm

Yes it's all very interesting at the moment and there are so many possible options on the table a watching brief is the priority I feel

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The potential freeze is due to start the same week as 1947, and is forecast to last as long if not longer using today’s supercomputers so I think a chance, maybe not as severe as that would just be insane but anywhere close would still be an historic event. The powers at be will be watching closely and keeping in touch with the METO I’m sure. 

Have you looked at glosea’s predicted 850 anomoly ?   If you are going to use the slp chart to make a case then you have to use the other one which is very much not 1947! 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Er ....no.  We likely won’t see another 1947 in our lifetimes ........... why not start by aiming to get a couple weeks of cold and snow and take it from there ! 

If the Synoptics of 2013 were in Jan not March we would not be far off the temperature profiles I doubt - hard to judge I guess.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

Just now, Snowjokes92 said:

I dont appriciate your tone...

Just saying 'no' doesnt mean anything. I was just saying there is a chance. If people were less quick to jump down peoples throats then I might accustom to post on here more often. But thats why I rarely bother anymore..

Sorry if you took it the wrong way but there is an issue in here where people’s expectations are raised way too high and that causes bigger problems when the downside appears ........

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the Synoptics of 2013 were in Jan not March we would not be far off the temperature profiles I doubt - hard to judge I guess.

It’s true that we can’t see if the second half of March and April are unseasonably v warm - however, we did see the glosea strat modelling the other day and that didn’t look like it would deliver a warm early spring 

[Mapantz]

OK, back to discussing models please. There's appropriate threads for reminiscing over previous Winters.

[MattStoke]

(I think this on topic).

Automated forecasts starting to show a downward trend in temperatures and increasing risk of sleet/snow. Good indication of what the models are showing. Although I don’t know what particular model this app gets it’s data from.

My location is very central, so a decent reference for the UK as a whole.

Edited January 11, 2019 by MattStoke

[Ali1977]

Just now, MattStoke said:

(I think this on topic).

Automated forecasts starting to show a downward trend in temperatures and increasingly risk of sleet/snow. Good indication of what the models are showing. Although I don’t know what particular model this app gets it’s data from.

I think this is GFS, and .YR uses ECM