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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Following on from Dave’s post earlier, despite several weeks of anticyclonic conditions, I am still to see a good frost!  the ground is fairly dry but certainly not particularly cold.  The old fashioned frigid spells tended to follow a cold dry period with frosts/fog.  This one looks like it won’t (if the trough sinks as currently advertised). So if conditions are marginal for snowfall then settling will be probably be an issue. Getting an early snowfall on the ground would be very helpful. MWB’s post re the eps members is helpful as it seems more colder members beginning to show their hand - caution on this as the entire suite could be skewed by that upper ridging towards Iceland sharpening the cyclonic flow to be more continental. 

I was about to say the complete opposite blue!!we have had no rain for about 3 week in this part of the midlands and we have had a number of frosts!!the ground is bone dry and cold!!once the snow sets in here conditions should be primed for settling!!ive had plenty of times where the temperatures have been mild in the run up to a snow event and its not been an issue so fingers crossed!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Better run coming earlier on I would say, the Jet stream is about 100 miles south of the 0z,  that might help shallow out any sliders which would be a good thing.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Better run coming earlier on I would say, the Jet stream is about 100 miles south of the 0z,  that might help shallow out any sliders which would be a good thing.

Weird cos the low seems further north and slightly deeper i think!!although it looks better over the uk!

 

Actually slightly further south but deeper!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Not happening or doesnt look like it will slide as per ecm!!just my opinion but i think gfs will shall be right about the slider and we wont get anything from it!!or a middle ground could happen!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Weird cos the low seems further north and slightly deeper i think!!although it looks better over the uk!

Tbf..we are at a base point to where looking a macroscale-is highly favoured than micro ie wedge deviation..cell placements..trough alingment..

And take scope of the larger nor-hem synoptics.

Then pull bk to these minimal dynamics as we gain...and come into more reliable time scales...

Or you'll give yaself a headache!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Think it’s probably unwise to second guess each frame for now, each frame is coming as a surprise at the moment. Time to watch it evolve for a few frames I’d say! 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Paul_1978 said:

22nd Jan **is** mid-winter.

1947 freeze started after Mid Winter, nothing much can’t from that one though  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Think it’s probably unwise to second guess each frame for now, each frame is coming as a surprise at the moment. Time to watch it evolve for a few frames I’d say! 

That's why I've switched over to the HGT500 charts...there's less to get bogged-down with, but the overall picture stays clear?

image.thumb.png.2371d38b1473751adbc935dcea67a8ff.png

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Mmmm, much better here though. 

D7A2283B-1E35-4DD9-B918-3A6A9B852D02.png

that! in my humble view  is the best chart so far this winter that GFS has churned out for below 200 hrs

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Out to day 9 and although the low at day 6 is handled differently the GFS and Euro are very similar by day 9 albeit GFS has a stronger low and so larger warm sector. A potential snow event to watch however.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Not happening or doesnt look like it will slide as per ecm!!just my opinion but i think gfs will shall be right about the slider and we wont get anything from it!!or a middle ground could happen!

Appears to be discrepancies between the models with regards to position of lows and ridges over Atlantic and towards UK from mid-week.

00z EC and UKMO build a 'wedge' of high pressure ahead of the low south of Greenland at (T+144) 00z Thursday, this high slows and disrupts the low to the west on EC thereafter, as I suspect UKMO would if it showed day 8. We then see another low move in from the SW beneath that first low stalling near southern Greenland - the low to the south then heading towards NW of UK before it 'dumbells' to the NW and associated fronts push east next weekend and bump into cold air bringing frontal snow risk.

However, the 06z GFS shows that low south of Greenland early Thursday continuing to track east over the UK rather than held back to the west, then a transitory ridge between that low and next low moving in from the west allows cold air to spread south over the UK settling up potential for frontal snow ahead of next low too.

Either way we get there (Euros or GFS route), there looks to be disruption of lows and associated fronts moving in from the west next weekend as they bump into cold air and shallow ridging over and east of the UK.

But lots to be resolved still with the MSLP past day 6 methinks

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

Oh my..

gfsnh-0-276.thumb.png.662b9a593508501ac9ab3e481361424c.png

gfsnh-1-276.thumb.png.a825485cdf0f6acf0045ed7a14953a60.png

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Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m

The extremely deep LP (950) west of Iceland that gfs 6z "invented" is a big game/pattern changer. It will lead to a quite snowy Northwesterly initially and after this the High will settle in a good position mid Atlantic leading to a proper Easterly. Give me this run as it is and I'm happy. Best run this winter. 

Edited by Empire Of Snow
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

What an evolution..something 4 all..

As we swing between..cold airmasses..

Even the rammped nw jet..aiding things..

CRACKING STUFF...

Day 2 day white out conditions..

If its even near the money...

gfsnh-5-312.png

gfsnh-0-312.png

Edited by tight isobar
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