Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ah ok De Bilt. Yes very nice set there! 

They look excellent mate, and Matt Hugo tweeting very positive noises just now!!

[bluearmy]

Looks like this suite has firmed up on the more cyclonic flow centred to our se rather than the wider spread of n, nw,ne, e offered on previous runs

there remains a lot of fluidity around the period post 20th given the upstream Canadian vortex pumping out and a euro trough which is never well modelled ...... with that in mind, whilst strongly optimistic for cold and snow final third of the month, pinning down a specific pattern at this range is a bit of a forlorn task 

[SLEETY]

awesome ,hope it comes off for everyone,needs to hit the reliable 

[Chesil View]

According to Matt Hugo's latest tweet the latest ECM monthly is in his words 'bonkers' for N Atlantic and the Greenland blocking from week two.

With plenty of north and northeasterly winds for the UK into Feb.

Let's hope it's on the money. Today's ECM ens suggest we could be headed that way.  Fingers crossed for all our cold and snow loving members.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like this suite has firmed up on the more cyclonic flow centred to our se rather than the wider spread of n, nw,ne, e offered on previous runs

there remains a lot of fluidity around the period post 20th given the upstream Canadian vortex pumping out and a euro trough which is never well modelled ...... with that in mind, whilst strongly optimistic for cold and snow final third of the month, pinning down a specific pattern at this range is a bit of a forlorn task 

A good morning for coldies Blue..

Trending the right way ..

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to Matt Hugo's latest tweet the latest ECM monthly is in his words 'bonkers' for N Atlantic and the Greenland blocking from week two.

With plenty of north and northeasterly winds for the UK into Feb.

It was posted on here last evening ..........

we don’t need Matt to tell us ...... anyway, he blocked me on Twitter so don’t care what he tweets! Imagine that ..... blocking me ! 

[TEITS]

11 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

According to Matt Hugo's latest tweet the latest ECM monthly is in his words 'bonkers' for N Atlantic and the Greenland blocking from week two.

With plenty of north and northeasterly winds for the UK into Feb.

Sorry to be a misery but I shall believe it when it appears at a sensible timeframe. Been here far too long and seen posts like above too many times.

i  continue to see a pattern of turning colder but not excessively so. Snowfall chances remain but will be very marginal because of the lack of deep cold. I still only see weak, temporary ridges of HP and not robust blocking in the key areas. If we are to see a change to the type of cold spell we are all hoping for, then we may have to wait until the very end of Jan into early Feb. Again I will only believe it at +144.

Edited January 11, 2019 by TEITS

[shaky]

Anyway all am sayin is if the ecm mean turns out correct the 46 dayer and the de bilt ensembles come true aswell then you might aswell make the most of the cold for the next five days cos..............ITS GONA BE FREEEEEEEEEEEEZING AFTER THAT!!!

Edited January 11, 2019 by shaky

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It was posted on here last evening ..........

we don’t need Matt to tell us ...... anyway, he blocked me on Twitter so don’t care what he tweets! Imagine that ..... blocking me ! 

He will be the one worrying about blocking over the next month when he has to keep making those forecasting nightmares wrt the travel chaos that will unfold.

[legritter]

Hi gang ,I may be lurking about but it's great reading all the posts .Although this morning's runs aren't yet showing the perfect synoptics just yet ,I feel that the ecm in its later stages could go on to produce some STONKING charts soon .must Cleen behind my Settee for tonight's runs , cheers gang Stellas on me .

[Met4Cast]

Okay.. things are getting interesting now. Despite the ECM Op the extended EPS are cold throughout and see blocking transferring from the mid-Atlantic to the North of the UK forcing low pressure South-Eastwards into central Europe

850hPa temperature anoms are massively below average, too! We're still looking at a period of cold zonal before we get to that point which in itself brings the risk of snowfall via slider lows though it has to be said the risk is primarily for Northern areas judging by current modelling. 

Last nights EC46 run which bought interest out of weeks 3/4 and into week 2 for the first time this winter caught my attention, coupled with the 00z ECM mean things are changing in our favour. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, legritter said:

Hi gang ,I may be lurking about but it's great reading all the posts .Although this morning's runs aren't yet showing the perfect synoptics just yet ,I feel that the ecm in its later stages could go on to produce some STONKING charts soon .must Cleen behind my Settee for tonight's runs , cheers gang Stellas on me .

Good morning Legritter- always enjoy reading your posts and hope you are OK

 

[Man With Beard]

ECM 00Z individual ensembles are - BRUTALLY - cold by 25th January.

From a synoptic point of view, on that date only, I judge:

32 members are definitely cold enough for snow (for the majority of the UK, usual caveats apply re: coasts / SW extremities)

10 members are not cold enough for snow

9 members are potentially cold enough for snow but not completely clear.

I also checked for upper temperatures; 37 members had the minus 5C uppers line through most of the UK, but in truth most of these were far colder than that, and out of the remaining 14 members, it was still very cold in some parts of the country, or it looked like cold had just left or would be coming shortly after. Truly mild runs were scarce.

It's becoming a very strong signal indeed. 

[Chesil View]

8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Sorry to be a misery but I shall believe it when it appears at a sensible timeframe. Been here far too long and seen posts like above too many times.

i  continue to see a pattern of turning colder but not excessively so. Snowfall chances remain but will be very marginal because of the lack of deep cold. I still only see weak, temporary ridges of HP and not robust blocking in the key areas. If we are to see a change to the type of cold spell we are all hoping for, then we may have to wait until the very end of Jan into early Feb.

I think that's a sentiment many of us have learned to apply over the years TEITS certainly can,t taking anything for granted until comes within the reliable  timeframe, never the less I,d rather it's was showing bonkers cold charts than Endless zonality as we head into the second half ago a so far very indifferent winter

[Glacier Point]

Putting some index figures to the EC weeklies, AO mean is forecast to tank negative by early Feb late Jan for the week 3 - 4 period (mean -2.5SD) with the NAO also moving to around -1SD. Both remain negative for the entirity of the run.

For that week 2 to 3 evolution, which must see a developing Arctic ridge most likely in combination with enhanced sub-tropical flow across North America to displace the lobe of the polar vortex further south and west from its current modelled position. Week 3 could still be a bit wobbly on that, given what we know about the stubbornness of the vortex in this location. On the plus side, good reasoning to think tropical wave development will swing back rapidly to a positive forcing forcing for -NAO during this period. I also think there is a good case for suggesting the downwelling of -U wind signal from the SSW will finally be realised during this period.

[Summer Sun]

It looks like Thursday will be the start of the colder feel in the south the London ECM graph goes from around 8c at noon on Wednesday to around 4.5c at noon on Thursday

[Nick F]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It was posted on here last evening ..........

we don’t need Matt to tell us ...... anyway, he blocked me on Twitter so don’t care what he tweets! Imagine that ..... blocking me ! 

Blocked me too on Twitter.

Anyway, fair bit of spread signaled for that low moving in to northwest and extending SE later next week/weekend on the 00z EC mslp standard deviation plots. So one could deduce from that the low extension disrupting further south against the HP 'wedge' to the east.

Even how the 00z EC det. is at face value it brings potential for snow in the mix later next week as Atlantic frontal systems move in into cold high pressure, especially up north, though probably more marginal away from hills down south than the charts suggest.

So, as above, wintry potential increasing the end of next week, though too far off for specifics of where and when yet.

All this a taster before a more sustained colder and wintry pattern develops as per GEFS and EPS extended.

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Nick F

[Ali1977]

Things ramping up a little now for late month so expect some boooom charts coming into the Op and ENS more readily now - still thinking next Friday could see be a pretty big snow event somewhere with a slider, and possibly into the weekend. Eyes down for the 06z

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It was posted on here last evening ..........

we don’t need Matt to tell us ...... anyway, he blocked me on Twitter so don’t care what he tweets! Imagine that ..... blocking me ! 

Never mind blocking you Nick, we need Blocking Greenland!!!

 

BFTP

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Never mind blocking you Nick, we need Blocking Greenland!!!

 

BFTP

Looks like he only blocks people called Nick 

[bluearmy]

Following on from Dave’s post earlier, despite several weeks of anticyclonic conditions, I am still to see a good frost!  the ground is fairly dry but certainly not particularly cold.  The old fashioned frigid spells tended to follow a cold dry period with frosts/fog.  This one looks like it won’t (if the trough sinks as currently advertised). So if conditions are marginal for snowfall then settling will be probably be an issue. Getting an early snowfall on the ground would be very helpful. MWB’s post re the eps members is helpful as it seems more colder members beginning to show their hand - caution on this as the entire suite could be skewed by that upper ridging towards Iceland sharpening the cyclonic flow to be more continental. 

[Methuselah]

All in all, a positive start to what will, hopefully, be another positive day's water torture...Roll on snow at Day 5!

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-mr take on snow possibilities next Fri..  Very good charts this morning for a cold spell to start back end of next week. 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-mr take on snow possibilities next Fri.. 

Id aim for 200m upwards. in the Peak district. One of those situations where its snowing and wet then suddenly as you ascend the hill, all turns white and your mind starts to think about the slippy descent after the crest.

[Methuselah]

Jet certainly taken-on a better orientation...all the better for sliders: