Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, That ECM said:

 but I do understand it’s not at the pace some would like. 

Yes I want it in mid winter, not the butt end...

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles have gone a bit mental in deep FI this morning - all over the place, a few flirting with West based -NAO but at least more are seeing Atlantic blocking.

Graph doesn't look too bad. Imagine how it will look if they settle down on a cold signal.

 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles have gone a bit mental in deep FI this morning - all over the place playing with West based -NAO

 

 

It'd be just our luck- wait all winter for a -NAO and when we finally get it, it's a west based one 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It'd be just our luck- wait all winter for a -NAO and when we finally get it, it's a west based one 

LOL I only put that in there for you Crewe, noticed you were feeling a bit grumpy this morning. 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Mucka

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It'd be just our luck- wait all winter for a -NAO and when we finally get it, it's a west based one 

Imagine the toy throwing now Crewe repeat after me “I’m H A P P Y I’m H A P P Y I know I am  I’m sure I am I’m ............  

[Ali1977]

2m temps from the latest GEFS, mighty cold from the 19th really. This is Cumbria so obviously colder than some areas. 

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

A quick follow up from the short range with the gfs. Essentially we are now well into the unsettled period with a fluid west > east movement as the warm and colder air masses interact. Thus periods of rain, showers, sunny intervals and very windy at times Illustrated quite well by the very wet and windy day next Friday. Getting colder by day ten as the Pm air becomes more established

 

[carinthian]

On ‎08‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 07:35, carinthian said:

Furthermore to the above post, this chart below from UKMO shows a significant expansion of the cold air to the NE (120t-144t) propagating South West down through to the 500mb layer. 

C

Super pleased to see the UKMO at (144t) and continues to push the colder uppers further SW with each run. Any short waves or lows moving from the NW will now come up against this colder block in the period post 144t and sink/or disrupt in a more southerly track, possibly over the UK or Ireland. Snow risk increases significantly.

C

[shaky]

Had that 144 hour chart from the ukmo been without the spoiler then i would av sed its been an okay start to the day in regards to the slider because ecm looks good at 144 hours but gfs does not look nice im regards to the slider and it looks like it has now got a bit more support for it the more eastward progression than last night!!lets see what the 06z brings!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very good ECM day 7...but can we trust it?

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Had that 144 hour chart from the ukmo been without the spoiler then i would av sed its been an okay start to the day in regards to the slider because ecm looks good at 144 hours but gfs does not look nice im regards to the slider and it looks like it has now got a bit more support for it the more eastward progression than last night!!lets see what the 06z brings!!

GFS is notoriously bad at handling sliders - as Steve M would say....stick with the euros.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

GFS is notoriously bad at handling sliders - as Steve M would say....stick with the euros.

It's all hyperbole. Each model will have its successes and failures with each event.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's all hyperbole. Each model will have its successes and failures with each event.

Yes, I completely agree.

But in scenarios such as this I would rather gamble my money on a euro blend as opposed to the GFS......especially the old one which is ready for the scrapheap.

[Mucka]

snow event on ECM as the low disrupts/slides SE in cold air

Edited January 11, 2019 by Mucka

[Lloyds32]

Taking the 18z and 0z GFS all looks very Atlantic sourced weather with PM air in the mix. Guess its good for hills and mountains but if your looking ice days and laying snow I personally don't see it. Looks cold (as in below average) and pretty damp and miserable.

Greenland high pressure of any size or position looks completely off the table. Transient cold air events looks the form horse, in between milder air off the Atlantic.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Lloyds32

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

snow event on ECM

Where

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Just now, Mucka said:

snow event on ECM

There's no snow event there. That's a small 1020mb surface high over the UK?

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Meanwhile GFSp still trying to figure out what a slider is

 

Me too. Keep trying to work out what is meant but still not too sure - would someone be able to help me with a brief explanation of a 'slider'?  

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Lloyds32 said:

Taking the 18z and 0z GFS all looks very Atlantic sourced weather with PM air in the mix. Guess its good for hills and mountains but if your looking ice days and laying snow I personally don't see it. Looks cold (as in below average) and pretty damp and miserable.

and taking the ukmo and ecm just for balance?

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

 

There's no snow event there. That's a small 1020mb surface high over the UK?

I think there is, the low disrupts SE across UK wrapped in sub -6 850's

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

snow event on ECM as the low disrupts/slides SE in cold air

Not sure on a snow event then, but possibly Thurs on high ground and up North with the little kink in isobars.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

I think there is, the low disrupts SE across UK wrapped in sub -6 850's

If there's any precipitation involved on that chart it'll be negligible for the majority IMO.

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If there's any precipitation involved on that chart it'll be negligible for the majority IMO.

Disagree but that's okay, it's all discussion. If it were dry it would be because associated front was too far W.

Look SW of UK just W of France for where it ended up.

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

This is a pretty cold chart for 192 from the ECM, but it looks so complicated and full of variables I imagine FI is nearer 144. I think it’s take another 24/36 hours to have a better idea on what is going to happen next Thurs/Fri. 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

ECm mobile again ..... was hoping yesterday’s op symptomatic of the higher res picking up a slowing flow but clearly not to the extent it showed 

back to expected transition although that day 9 could easily disrupt more as it ticks down  

Edited January 11, 2019 by bluearmy