Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[tight isobar]

Drip-drip-..@propagation @downwelling.

The dough has been kneaded- the bread being baked!!..

Trop/layer responces everything..EVERYTHING falling into place..

Like a horse 10 lengths clear 1 furlong out..

gefs_ensemblemean_wafz_2019010700.webp

figure1_01072019.webp

Edited January 10, 2019 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

They have been bloody consistent ..... week 6 is now week 2/3................

Slight criticism (not of the model performance - of the synoptics) is that it becomes a bit more west based as time goes on but that is really nit-picking.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

New EC weeks 3 and 4 as you were. High pressure in all the right places.

That’s great news! 

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

They have been bloody consistent ..... week 6 is now week 2/3................

Fair enough, I, like many am just getting bloody impatient!

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Week 3 again for the third week in a row.

Sliders and a snowfest with east winds!!

[Day 10]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its just a passion, apologies if im annoying..

You're not annoying mate most of us in here are snow nuts, that's why we come back day after day, hour after hour. Let's hope we ALL get what we're after soon enough.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Week 3 again for the third week in a row.

It’s not - the euro trough is now week 2 .......... someone dig out my post from Sunday pm which listed every run and when it showed the high anom to the nw and low to the se ...... if this lands, this will be the ec 46’s finest hour ! 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Slight criticism (not of the model performance - of the synoptics) is that it becomes a bit more west based as time goes on but that is really nit-picking.

@snowking will be getting nervous at the thought .......

[Tim Bland]

Sorry if it’s a silly question but is week 1 next week - starting 14th? 

[Ice Day]

Big differences on the GFS at 156 from the 12z.  This looks more likely to slide?

18z  12z 

[Weathizard]

Very different again this, looks like it could be a better run after the initial low comes through

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not - the euro trough is now week 2 .......... someone dig out my post from Sunday pm which listed every run and when it showed the high anom to the nw and low to the se ...... if this lands, this will be the ec 46’s finest hour ! 

If it can't perform when there's a strong SSW, then when can it?  I can't think of another situation at all when predicability at 46 days is actually possible!

Edited January 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not - the euro trough is now week 2 .......... someone dig out my post from Sunday pm which listed every run and when it showed the high anom to the nw and low to the se ...... if this lands, this will be the ec 46’s finest hour ! 

So week 2 is looking good? Excellent, onset if real cold around 22nd?

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Sorry if it’s a silly question but is week 1 next week - starting 14th? 

yep 96h

[snowray]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

And relax 

Them are FANTASTIC!!!

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

You really need to relax a bit lol

im sure it will all work out in the end, well I hope so

Yes NWS, calm down, you will give yourself a heart attack at this rate!

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

And relax 

That is brilliant. Good quality anomalies there, especially week 3 when I start to get edgy if the anomalies aren't that great (weeks 4/5 pretty but need consolidating in future 46s)

... 

BTW, back to the D11-D15 ECM... potential for an exceptionally cold spell north. Glasgow's mean surface temperature doesn't get back above 3C after 17th, and is averaging around 1C for maximums by the end of the run. 

 

[Weathizard]

Slide boy slide!

[Snowy L]

Much better orientation on that low, similar to ECM but happens a bit earlier.

 

Not seeing any real block after that, but its a start at least.

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile, pub run trickling out, and at T180 it's looking so much more promising than recent output for this model, go pub run!

[markw2680]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its just a passion, apologies if im annoying..

It’s not annoying mate just thought I was mad when I was younger and now we are all mad together lol

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Much better orientation on that low, similar to ECM but happens a bit earlier.

 

Not seeing any real block after that, but its a start at least.

Wouldn’t take as much as you might think to get a decent ridge there, the low slides through and engages with the colder uppers to our NE allowing the low in behind to build a ridge north/NE.

 

and then I woke up and realised it’s the GFS and it will probably barrel through a low shortly.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Meanwhile, pub run trickling out, and at T180 it's looking so much more promising than recent output for this model, go pub run!

18z..shes a starting point 4..the splitter!!..

Circular momentum taking all in its stride..

With polar injections..nearly of 'perfect placements'....

Edited January 10, 2019 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If it can't perform when there's a strong SSW, then when can it?  I can't think of another situation at all when predicability at 46 days is actually possible!

Seriously mike ..... it has predicted the set up post the 20th since mid dec ...... which other model worked out that the downwelling would be so slow????  Exeter were covering their backside re a QTR affecting nw Europe for weeks and weeks .....

[northwestsnow]

18z 192

12z