Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Methuselah]

Gav's latest take on the model output - waiting for northern blocking:

 

[ICE COLD]

Any news on the extended EPS @bluearmy @mulzy @shotski ? 

Cheers 

[Sperrin]

I know this is a tweet but interesting to hear a senior met man giving hints at what the UKMO model is showing past +144. 

[Bristawl Si]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yep the BAIN of winter 2018/9 and scuppered me totally.  It is a real spoiler ....but GHP not an option anyway

Can ANYONE explain the mechanism why this HP has scuppered our winter and seems to be potentially problematic going forward? Could it have been forecast? 

BFTP

In a roundabout way it was forecast by Spanish Meto. Their Winter LRF was mainly Dry & Settled for Iberia.

[mulzy]

@ICE COLD ext EPS broadly similar to previous suites.  Slightly less ridging into Greenland days 10-13 but still all good. Cold anomaly quite stark Days 10-15 (850 anomalies of -3 to -4).

[shotski]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

@ICE COLD ext EPS broadly similar to previous suites.  Slightly less ridging into Greenland days 10-13 but still all good. Cold anomaly quite stark Days 10-15 (850 anomalies of -3 to -4).

Also European trough sinking. 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

@ICE COLD ext EPS broadly similar to previous suites.  Slightly less ridging into Greenland days 10-13 but still all good. Cold anomaly quite stark Days 10-15 (850 anomalies of -3 to -4).

Thanks Mulzy . Still looking good .

[shaky]

Any better on the icon?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

25 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

In a roundabout way it was forecast by Spanish Meto. Their Winter LRF was mainly Dry & Settled for Iberia.

Greece, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran, and other associated countries plastered in bitter cold and heavy snow.  This HP has stuffed us this winter thus far. 

 

 BFTP

[Man With Beard]

Latest ECM ensembles have reached 25th January, this is how they look tonight. Out of 51 members, this is my verdict, purely looking at their synoptics (on the 25th itself - haven't checked the upper temps) :

26 Clearly cold, some exceptionally so

17 Average or mild

8 Borderline cold/average 

*See edit! 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Man With Beard

[Banbury]

48 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yep the BAIN of winter 2018/9 and scuppered me totally.  It is a real spoiler ....but GHP not an option anyway

Can ANYONE explain the mechanism why this HP has scuppered our winter and seems to be potentially problematic going forward? Could it have been forecast? 

BFTP

Well it shouldn't be a surprise the winter was going to be dominated by HP 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest ECM ensembles have reached 25th January, this is how they look tonight. Out of 51 members, this is my verdict, purely looking at their synoptics:

26 Clearly cold, some exceptionally so

17 Average or mild

8 Borderline cold/average 

 

Given we are on the edge of an ocean, that smacks of 50/50 to me .......... I guess that some cold runs will have a milder couple days and vica versa ....

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest ECM ensembles have reached 25th January, this is how they look tonight. Out of 51 members, this is my verdict, purely looking at their synoptics:

26 Clearly cold, some exceptionally so

17 Average or mild

8 Borderline cold/average 

 

Nowhere near as clear cut as i was hoping..

Beginning to get a little concerned this azores/ mid Atlantic high is showing its hand at an unwanted juncture if im honest..

 

Edited January 10, 2019 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Greece, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran, and other associated countries plastered in bitter cold and heavy snow.  This HP has stuffed us this winter thus far. 

BFTP

You seem a bit glass half full Fred........would have expected you to be a little excited by the weeks ahead .....

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nowhere near as clear cut as i was hoping..

 

He is talking D15 though i think - so your'e not going to get 90% or anything stupid in the 10-15 day range.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nowhere near as clear cut as i was hoping..

 

Given that we will probably have cold air somewhat entrenched, some sypntocs that don’t look so cold would be .......

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

He is talking D15 though i think - so your'e not going to get 90% or anything stupid in the 10-15 day range.

Thats true Feb

We'll see.. EC 46 will reveal more.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

He is talking D15 though i think - so your'e not going to get 90% or anything stupid in the 10-15 day range.

Yer 50% at day 15 is pretty good to be fair . Add in the % of borderline inn and the mild yuk looks the outside chance .

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given we are on the edge of an ocean, that smacks of 50/50 to me .......... I guess that some cold runs will have a milder couple days and vica versa ....

I should add the caveat that this was a very quick look at all members at one timeframe. My sense was exactly like yours - there were other cold runs but just not at the peak of their cold at the time. 

My general sense was that this was, if described with compete generalization, a very cold set of runs. 

The summaries will give a clearer picture when they come out shortly. 

Don't panic anyone! 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats true Feb

We'll see.. EC 46 will reveal more.

And then tomorrow we will start worrying about Mondays update and so on until a flake falls out of the sky lol  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

I know people moan about that high pressure cell and yes the bloody thing has been a nuiscance at times but were it not there the zonal train may have been powering through, this high pressure eventually could pay serious dividend to us just requires patience.

Called me stupid but I’ve seen the phrase zonal reset used on here before and I HATE it, as someone said above it’s a case of be careful what you wish for, if the high is far enough west it can go from zero to hero

Although there are many evolutions and surprise steps in getting the cold here, That high pressure cell, which is an Azores high, has always been the killer for setting up cold. It takes so much for it to budge, and is occupying space stopping a southerly tracking jet stream, which is one of the vital ingredients in giving us decent cold spells. We need it to be displaced northwards and substituted with low pressure, otherwise the energy is going to keep going up and over it, keeping the pattern flat and further intensify the low heights to our North. 

If you get low pressure around the Azores, you get a much better chance of a Greenland / Gricelandic high forming. 

[karlos1983]

Is the Icelandic site updating ok atm?

[bluearmy]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Is the Icelandic site updating ok atm?

Seems to do so in the morning but not the evening ......however, the ec46 is on the 00z issue so who knows ............

[snowray]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yep the BAIN of winter 2018/9 and scuppered me totally.  It is a real spoiler ....but GHP not an option anyway

Can ANYONE explain the mechanism why this HP has scuppered our winter and seems to be potentially problematic going forward? Could it have been forecast? 

BFTP

Yup It's the nasty old Azores high BFTP, it always scuppers our winters when it hangs around for an eternity.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Seems to do so in the morning but not the evening ......however, the ec46 is on the 00z issue so who knows ............

No go yet on the sneak peek at the temps.