Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Blessed Weather]

I think the above discussion has gone far enough so can we please move on. It's derailing the thread. Any more posts on the matter will likely disappear. Thanks.

[Frosty.]

Plenty of cold joy on the GEFS 12z mean / postage stamps in the mid / longer range..SNOW too!!!..lots to discuss!!

[SMU]

Been out most of the eve- missed all the ECM fun-

 

Great 168 Mean tonight

[Mike Poole]

Very happy with the ECM ensemble mean at T144, echoes the UKMO at same time:

Through to T240

Evidence of slideryness on a mean chart at 10 days? Maybe a push to discern this, but I'm very comfortable with this.  I'll post some further thoughts on today's output in a little bit.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Ali1977]

Good mean, must be some belters in there. 

168 mean again suggests that date is well up there with a chance of a snow event 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

Not often you see the members so tightly packed at D10!! 

We are just lacking super cold uppers at the moment if I’m being really picky.

Edited January 10, 2019 by karlos1983

[knocker]

The last two ecm det runs both amplify the subtropical high towards the end, supported by the EPS mean, but have the ridge under pressure at the close. Indications are that the pressure wins out

[weirpig]

Is there a ECM update tonight?.

[northwestsnow]

Need that unwanted high pressure to the west to buzz off !!

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Is there a ECM update tonight?.

Take it you mean the 46 day model. That updates shortly after 10pm.

[karlos1983]

Anyone got the link to that Hungarian Met site for Pre EC46 rollout? I forgot to bookmark it

[snowflakey]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Need that unwanted high pressure to the west to buzz off !!

Yes ,its been a pain for a long time now. I think it was that HP that deflected the last plunge of cold air into Europe . 

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Need that unwanted high pressure to the west to buzz off !!

 

1 minute ago, snowflakey said:

Yes ,its been a pain for a long time now. I think it was that HP that deflected the last plunge of cold air into Europe . 

At least it’s not over us anymore! Careful what you wish for  

[Weathizard]

I know people moan about that high pressure cell and yes the bloody thing has been a nuiscance at times but were it not there the zonal train may have been powering through, this high pressure eventually could pay serious dividend to us just requires patience.

Called me stupid but I’ve seen the phrase zonal reset used on here before and I HATE it, as someone said above it’s a case of be careful what you wish for, if the high is far enough west it can go from zero to hero

[Dancerwithwings]

18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not often you see the members so tightly packed at D10!! 

We are just lacking super cold uppers at the moment if I’m being really picky.

Always that chance of colder upper showing if the tread is to be believed , like you said at D10, all members between  -3 to -8...here’s a close up

Edited January 10, 2019 by Dancerwithwings

[booferking]

NAVGEM & JMA brings the Northerly so that makes all models vs GFS op time to retire the poor critter.

[weirpig]

19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Anyone got the link to that Hungarian Met site for Pre EC46 rollout? I forgot to bookmark it

I believe its this one. enjoy  oh and thanks to sweatyman for a lovely link.

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

Edited January 10, 2019 by weirpig

[phil nw.]

Sliding lows heading south east around the high look like bringing the colder air south later next week so maybe a little earlier than the favoured 20/21st January which recent ens have indicated.

As others have posted the T168 mean charts are pretty decent for cold with  -5 uppers heading down the country.

[Mike Poole]

The signal that has been most noticeable today is not the model output, it's the nature of posts in here, a subtle shift from posting insane cold charts in deep FI from the ensembles and also the ops (when they have delivered them), to charts that are more sober but are actually in or nearly in the reliable.

The fallout from the SSW is expected to be prolonged.  GloSea5 has it affecting the trop pattern into April, as evidenced from that Met Office video posted the other day. The main ask from a coldie's perspective therefore is that we have a seat at the table to benefit from the increased likelihood of cold impacting mid-latitudes during the period from next week to April.  What we don't want is the blocking setting up in a catastrophic place for the UK such that we get locked out e.g. strong west-based negative NAO for one such setup. 

With today's runs the balance of probability shifts towards the former i.e. that we are in the game, with wedges, sliders and Atlantic ridging in play.  So if it was 70% chance when the SSW happened, today's 12z output moves it today to about 90% chance, I'd suggest.  Just GFS failing to go with the consensus at T144, and that should change.  To be clear, that's not 90% chance of a six week mega freeze or anything, just being in the right position to benefit from the higher likelihood of cold snaps or spells that will arise as a result of the SSW.  And that is a good place to be.

I hope that by 20 Jan, the discussion in here will be less about GFS, FV3 and the ensembles, but about ARPEGE, about HIRLAM, and about where snow will fall!  

Edited January 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Will be interesting EC 46 tonight.. im still not seeing evidence to support Greeny heights rises in the short medium or long term...

Sneaky suspicion the Greeny heights might become Griceland wedges..

Still hopefully positive for coldies..

Edited January 10, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Jason M]

17 minutes ago, booferking said:

NAVGEM & JMA brings the Northerly so that makes all models vs GFS op time to retire the poor critter.

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed 

Does look promising tonight though.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z pretty similar to the GEM 12z ensembles with the low pressures near the UK slightly deeper but still moving NW > SE giving us some possible slider / battleground snow events but again lots more runs before any detail on these will become known.

   

     

GEPS

days 7-11   and by days 12-16  still maintaining the signal for the linkup of heights Atlantic / Greenland / Arctic  

 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Will be interesting EC 46 tonight.. im still not seeing evidence to support Greeny heights rises in the short medium or long term...

Sneaky suspicion the Greeny heights might become Griceland wedges..

Still hopefully positive for coldies..

Yep! Wouldn't disagree with any of that

[The Beast From The East]

@nick sussex 

Do we have any shortwave dramas to worry about or any that could possibly help us out as far as you can tell? ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

51 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Need that unwanted high pressure to the west to buzz off !!

Yep the BAIN of winter 2018/9 and scuppered me totally.  It is a real spoiler ....but GHP not an option anyway

Can ANYONE explain the mechanism why this HP has scuppered our winter and seems to be potentially problematic going forward? Could it have been forecast? 

BFTP

Edited January 10, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST