Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

I feel sorry for you guys, but I wouldn't expect any serious, longer lasting snow-events looking on this EC-Chart for lower mainland and coast-side

ECE0-240.GIF?10-0

Too much west'ly stuff, on low grounds this would be around 5-8°C... just wrong pattern...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I feel sorry for you guys, but I wouldn't expect any serious, longer lasting snow-events looking on this EC-Chart for lower mainland and coast-side

ECE0-240.GIF?10-0

Too much west'ly stuff, on low grounds this would be around 5-8°C... just wrong pattern...

Link looks excellent.

Cold easterly at day 10..

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Can we open an IMBY 1 please..

The very annoying...we'll get snow at my house nonsense has already begun!..

C, mon- its gonna come down 2 microscale...as per on our maritime island..with the slightest tweak/adjust..having massive ramifications....

Gets my goat something bad!!!!

Agreed! 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Can we open an IMBY 1 please..

The very annoying...we'll get snow at my house nonsense has already begun!..

C, mon- its gonna come down 2 microscale...as per on our maritime island..with the slightest tweak/adjust..having massive ramifications....

Gets my goat something bad!!!!

Agree with this. Haven’t we already got imby threads? You know the regional threads? 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

And what about dew points? Are they irrelative?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Anglesey, Gosport, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning and Snow
  • Location: Anglesey, Gosport, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Can we open an IMBY 1 please..

The very annoying...we'll get snow at my house nonsense has already begun!..

C, mon- its gonna come down 2 microscale...as per on our maritime island..with the slightest tweak/adjust..having massive ramifications....

Gets my goat something bad!!!!

We already have IMBY forums. That's what the regional forums are for. But I agree.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

 

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

C, mon- its gonna come down 2 microscale...as per on our maritime island..

That sums up every UK Winter. We are a maritime island; hence big N Hemphishere weather/atmospheric events can sometimes bypass our little entity of islands. Dont forget the Gulf stream.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Link looks excellent.

Cold easterly at day 10..

Day time temperatures range from 0-3 degrees  snow level at around 400ft  according to the ecm    so his temperatures are way over   however too far out to be splitting hairs

Edited by weirpig
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, weirpig said:

Day time temperatures range from 0-3 degrees  snow level at around 400ft    so his temperatures are way over   however too far out to be splitting hairs

Yes i expected it to be cold..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

 

This chart here would not be 5 to 8 degrees BED8D4BB-D47F-40A8-8F3A-BBF67C0A7C57.thumb.png.19257a44a343b53e854ddb5aaf31c255.png

For the majority , especially eastern side of the country your looking at 1 to 4 degrees maybe lower .

Also an easterly flow, so DP’s would be sub zero. Not an issue for wintry ppn on that chart other than the lack of ppn lol

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

 

This chart here would not be 5 to 8 degrees BED8D4BB-D47F-40A8-8F3A-BBF67C0A7C57.thumb.png.19257a44a343b53e854ddb5aaf31c255.png

For the majority , especially eastern side of the country your looking at 1 to 4 degrees maybe lower .

Bulk standard daytime temps for late Jan. Colder than that in balmy Bristol early March 2018 (minus 2c at 2.00pm).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It’s the 10th jan and we are talking about dew points for 20th jan....really? 

No snow at pos dewpoints and pos 2m .. there where alot of posts here for possible snow, so I find it legitim to mention, that the parameters don't talk for snow... or am I wrong? It's been a bit too enthusiatic... but thtas just my opinion, I may be wrong... I don't know your microclima in surtain parts of UK, but I see those +°C, those are rookie numbers for snow... In Germany we normaly need min -8°C in 850hpa for snowfall wich will deploy a durable snow cover... If hours lasting snowfall in morning hours is you goal to reach, than don't take me too serious...

best regards

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Are you just here to wind people up. That is not an 8c surface temp chart.

not at all, I love your excitment, but -8 in 850hpa near sea is not -8 on ground....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Also an easterly flow, so DP’s would be sub zero. Not an issue for wintry ppn on that chart other than the lack of ppn lol

Yes mate , in reality whenever you get easterly winds of the continent in winter they feel very cold . You will get the forecast high of say 3 or 4 degrees but in reality it will be lower . Take last years beast they forecast 1 and 2’s and it dint get above -3 here . So day 10 would feel cold ? 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Bulk standard daytime temps for late Jan. Colder than that in balmy Bristol early March 2018 (minus 2c at 2.00pm).

As a guess, I'd expect temps to range from about +1C in inland eastern parts to maybe 5 or 6, in the far southwest...not accounting for altitude?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Sorry, not had time to read through the thread.

I'm sure it has already been said but GFS looks plain wrong the way it handles the upper trough 120/144 so I'm tempted to dismiss it.

UKMO looks a little over amplified so the ECM middle ground looks like a good pick through the mid term which would put us in a decent position going forward.

We could potentially be seeing the first snow falling (probably not accumulating) for lowland England this Winter as early as next week.

Hopefully it would get colder from there

One thing the FI output has always shown is plenty of marginal snow events, at least before any blocking we might hopefully get later takes hold.

Could be plenty of lamppost of watching.

GFS 18z may correct somewhat this evening, expect the usual eye candy in the ensembles.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

A week Monday 1200 temps in North England are v cold, 9 GEFS are showing ice days.

18EE7895-A638-4BAF-99B0-7596B9D6C9B3.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

No snow at pos dewpoints and pos 2m .. there where alot of posts here for possible snow, so I find it legitim to mention, that the parameters don't talk for snow... or am I wrong? It's been a bit too enthusiatic... but thtas just my opinion, I may be wrong... I don't know your microclima in surtain parts of UK, but I see those +°C, those are rookie numbers for snow... In Germany we normaly need min -8°C in 850hpa for snowfall wich will deploy a durable snow cover... If hours lasting snowfall in morning hours is you goal to reach, than don't take me too serious...

best regards

If we have an easterly flow we can get snow with uppers only just below freezing. It’s not a simple science. But I’m pretty certain you don’t need -8c 850’s in Germany for snow.... but hey your back yard, who am I to argue

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

No snow at pos dewpoints and pos 2m .. there where alot of posts here for possible snow, so I find it legitim to mention, that the parameters don't talk for snow... or am I wrong? It's been a bit too enthusiatic... but thtas just my opinion, I may be wrong... I don't know your microclima in surtain parts of UK, but I see those +°C, those are rookie numbers for snow... In Germany we normaly need min -8°C in 850hpa for snowfall wich will deploy a durable snow cover... If hours lasting snowfall in morning hours is you goal to reach, than don't take me too serious...

best regards

I just think it’s all about the right trend at this stage when it’s 10 days away and worry about temperatures and dew points etc much much nearer the time but each to there own mate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...