Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[chris55]

Gfs para looking primed at 168 (prob a bit late to the party lol, but haven’t read the thread or seen all the runs)

 

Look at that negative tilt 

[Banbury]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’ve always thought the GEM was the best model

850'S on that chart aren't  anything with a wow factor...….48 hour later they might be 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Banbury

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Im waiting for the really stonking ones to come within a reasonable timeframe (could still take a week or 2 yet), then rest assured, i will be using a range of superlatives and analogies to describe them.

[Methuselah]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

I’ve always thought the GEM was the best model

I've always though it was whichever one is showing the most snow-potential...The fact that no-one's posted any charts from the mighty BOM, this year, is a clear indication of the way things are going...?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

850'S on that chart are anything with a wow factor...….48 hour later they might be 

But its a slider - delivers snow.

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@feb1991blizzard think you may need to start a stonking weather chart 

 

        my love for snow makes me want to jump up for joy but still lots more runs to come before it is wise to get too excited 

This 4 me still imo-firm opinion..

The favoured/likely throw...

I'll be looking latter frame ecm 192+hrs..for more notable signs....

For a sharper more defined cut of atlantic wedging into the pole...

And ultimately..pacific/polar height link!!!..

Im steadfast with this !!!!

gensnh-8-1-312.webp

gensnh-8-1-312 (1).webp

Edited January 10, 2019 by tight isobar

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im waiting for the really stonking ones to come within a reasonable timeframe (could still take a week or 2 yet), then rest assured, i will be using a range of superlatives and analogies to describe them.

yes once / if we get to the stage of the lows going NW > SE (sliders) I think we will then be heading down the cold path and if the blocking sets up in the right place 

 

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

This 4 me still imo-firm opinion..

The favoured/likely throw...

I'll be looking latter frame ecm 192+hrs..for more notable signs....

For a sharper more defined cut of atlantic wedging into the pole...

And ultimately..pacific/polar height link!!!..

Im steadfast with this !!!!

  

GEM  12z ensembles rolling out

[gottolovethisweather]

While waiting for the ECM outputs, worth bearing in mind the following.

Pleasing to see this prediction of mine is still on course.

Also, note the UKMO Pressure charts as early as t+84 hours, which is the start of the upcoming unsettled spell and the first shot at wintry weather for a wee while. The highlighted regions in a blue box and the magenta arrows denote things to watch even at this early stage.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

Jeez - I just realised I have spent the day checking everything against  (and commenting earlier) on yesterday mornings clusters !!

 

[Rocheydub]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Jeez - I just realised I have spent the day checking everything against  (and commenting earlier) on yesterday mornings clusters !!

 

Model fatigue symptom number 1!!!

 

This ECM will answer a lot of our questions and put a lot of minds at rest (hopefully)

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

While waiting for the ECM outputs, worth bearing in mind the following.

Pleasing to see this prediction of mine is still on course.

Also, note the UKMO Pressure charts as early as t+84 hours, which is the start of the upcoming unsettled spell and the first shot at wintry weather for a wee while. The highlighted regions in a blue box and the magenta arrows denote things to watch even at this early stage.

 

 

Does ECM at 72 not look a little like this.

[snowice]

.

 

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im waiting for the really stonking ones to come within a reasonable timeframe (could still take a week or 2 yet), then rest assured, i will be using a range of superlatives and analogies to describe them.

Your waiting for a February blizzard.

[shaky]

Ecm similar to ukmo upstream!!maybe not as good near the uk!!!

[weirpig]

Ecm 144  northerly incoming

 

[gottolovethisweather]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Does ECM at 72 not look a little like this.

Yep, the surface High could do with sinking a bit I guess, but all going to plan, makes me think FI is nearer t+168 hours as opposed to much earlier on, the trend is clearly our friend. 

Edited January 10, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ecm 144  northerly incoming

 

Yes and the surface High way out West, good riddance to it. All looking good in the reliable, end of next week well up for grabs.

Edited January 10, 2019 by gottolovethisweather

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Ah now that's a tad gutting the GFS Para 12z has lost the channel low next Wed and replaced it with one over NE Scotland and as a result, the snowline has moved further inland so just the plain old rain (for now) for many coastal areas and central & eastern areas (away from western & northern Scotland) on the latest GFS Para which is a big difference to 6z 

[northwestsnow]

Will likely get a northerly toppler..

Need as much energy into euro as poss at 168..

[SLEETY]

yes a one day northerly i’m afraid ,hope fl is better.

[winterof79]

Really ?slider awaits and all routes sign posted low countries

Edited January 10, 2019 by winterof79

[ICE COLD]

We’re good in the hood . Not really ecspecting to much at the end of next week . It’s what follows after . 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

ensembles GEM 12z appear to make the lows that develop near the UK slightly deeper and therefore probably a closer call between rain / sleet / snow (no gif function available) but the lows overall still seem to be on that NW > SE track 

  

  

 

ensemble NAEFS 12z 240h  and by 384h 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Really ?slider awaits

Yep next frame will tell all   how far south will it go?.

[chris55]

EC 168 similar to gfs para, this is the period to be watching IMO, the ops may well roll it over at the moment, but I say watch this space....

[Tim Bland]

Fairly good consistency from the ECM if you compare the last 2 runs