Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Icon has amplified the pattern more at 144, waiting to see how that low out west interacts with the attempted ridge 

CDA93FF6-3457-44F9-8BA5-1D2B64F42C6C.png

ICON nailed Feb/march BFTE better than any model

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM on the other hand is much more pleasing on the eye and ends at day 10

image.thumb.png.65c72a0b9dee55a2fa6e303b10ff9204.png

Sliders for dinner, anyone?

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looks like a split from here too:

image.thumb.png.cb373d5adcda0c3f9b14177cd9a41efc.pngimage.thumb.png.d2dfd037b939ef8fa86b7b3e3242f6fd.png  

Shame it's all still at T+384!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
8 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Hmm, nah... much more N to NNE, hitting MidEu... UK too close to High on Atlantic....

Yes, high is concern there... or are we just dismissing this as the GFS not having a handle on the situation? 

Colder yes. Some wintriness, yes. Persistent or deep UK cold... no. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

I see what is happening here. With the reverse flow the Canadian lobe is being fuelled by the Euro lobe bleeding into it, this means we have to wait far longer for the initial split as the energy is transferred.

Because of this, I am going for a huge easterly early part of February as the energy over Euro drains away.

Edited by warrenb
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
13 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Looks split to me.. Or at least trying to.

731329179_viewimage(32).thumb.png.78664eda48e0c2380474e533a9dc733d.png

The daughters need to say their goodbyes as they will be apart for a while....

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Not sure what all that business days 6-10 was all about on the 12z GFS, but UKM and GEM advertising well the early stage development of the cold pattern.

GFS does show loaded potential days 8 onwards with shallow long wave troughs running through the southern tier of the US off the Eastern Pacific. Their interaction with the polar trough once again bringing about significant downstream (cold) ramifications for NW Europe in the extended, as per ensemble broad ensemble guidance.  FWIW and purely for fun, days 16-20 on the GFS op would be a redux of 1987.

Too true GP...and this year, unlike in 1987, most of the long-term signals favour a cold February; so a cold six weeks may well follow, as opposed to the bog-standard stuff that came after 1987's one-and-a-half-week-wonder...?:cold::santa-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like a split from here too:

image.thumb.png.cb373d5adcda0c3f9b14177cd9a41efc.pngimage.thumb.png.d2dfd037b939ef8fa86b7b3e3242f6fd.png  

Shame it's all still at T+384!

Nice balmy SWesterly there, Pete. Those Spanish meto guys have been right on the money with their Iberian LRF this Winter.

And now we look to February for cold and snow....the moveable date is in full flow.

Edited by Bristle boy
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Big upgrades on the ensembles i think around 192 hours!!also gfs para gollows ukmo!!!!!!!!!!!woohoo!!

15th Jan or just a tad after was the shouted date and here we go

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
16 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Yes, high is concern there... or are we just dismissing this as the GFS not having a handle on the situation? 

Colder yes. Some wintriness, yes. Persistent or deep UK cold... no. 

What we,re saying is the GFS has a known bias to move things too far east. View it in that ligjt and the high is further west.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
14 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I see what is happening here. With the reverse flow the Canadian lobe is being fuelled by the Euro lobe bleeding into it, this means we have to wait far longer for the initial split as the energy is transferred.

Because of this, I am going for a huge easterly early part of February as the energy over Euro drains away.

It’s very possible Warren - a slow transfer preventing a traditional trop split (which is why we probably won’t see a greeny ridge) and then high heights n of scandi dropping slowly south 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GEFS, UKMO , ICON , GEM and Para all have the UK (UKMO hopefully) In much colder air by next weekend - some start that off around Thursday. ECM could really get the ball rolling if it follows with that. 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Delete Me

GFS trying to spoil the party I see!

Lovely set of charts, if they come off then some of the new year outputs for next week will have been spot on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
31 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I see what is happening here. With the reverse flow the Canadian lobe is being fuelled by the Euro lobe bleeding into it, this means we have to wait far longer for the initial split as the energy is transferred.

Because of this, I am going for a huge easterly early part of February as the energy over Euro drains away.

1

Nah, before that, it'll kick into gear sometime between 21st and 31st January.

Pleasing to see this prediction of mine is still on course.

Also, note the UKMO Pressure charts as early as t+84 hours, which is the start of the upcoming unsettled spell and the first shot at wintry weather for a wee while. The highlighted regions in a blue box and the magenta arrows denote things to watch even at this early stage.

1734701858_UKMO0000hrsSLPChartatt84hrs-Sunday13thJanuary2019.thumb.jpg.442ade7f45299605fc45e825d44dfabf.jpg

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Watch out for a steady build towards an easterly!! The PV to the north west will kick on and forcing will be a big benefit 

Edited by swfc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...