Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Weathizard]

Might be alright long term but the GFS looks utterly clueless at the moment, I was looking at the 168 chart just thinking what the hell is this thing doing, it looks totally lost with all the background signals, SSW and other nuances in play.

[Leo97t]

Not sure what people think is so bad about the 12z. Looks better to me

[Light Without Heat]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Might be alright long term but the GFS looks utterly clueless at the moment, I was looking at the 168 chart just thinking what the hell is this thing doing, it looks totally lost with all the background signals, SSW and other nuances in play.

Does anyone think this maybe down to the US government departments that are shut ?

[northwestsnow]

GEM on the other hand is much more pleasing on the eye and ends at day 10

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

As others have said would rather have the UKMO/ECMWF on side rather than GEM/GFS.

Oh Yes  but the GEM  for me is a thing of beauty  cold from the east with sliders galore   id take that now. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

Does anyone think this maybe down to the US government departments that are shut ?

Can I get a pound for everytime this is being asked?

[Weather Boy]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

We’ll if this is wrong GFS 144hrs there’s not much point watching the rest of the run

UKMO flirting with a brief chilly northerly at 144hrs. Better than nothing

I'm not sure there is ever much point looking at GFS post 144h. Certainly not 240h.

[ukpaul]

6 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Not sure what people think is so bad about the 12z. Looks better to me

It looks implausible, it’s pushing through runner lows but disengages them so that it also tries to throw up a ridge. One or the other would be fine, neutralising the Azores high, but instead it tries to keep pushing it towards us. 

Edited January 10, 2019 by ukpaul

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

Does anyone think this maybe down to the US government departments that are shut ?

See my response with the NOAA post explaining no effect as they are all working!

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Not sure what people think is so bad about the 12z. Looks better to me

It really isn't...

That was on the cards from 168..

Finally drops troughing into Europe at 288.

Edited January 10, 2019 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Can I get a pound for everytime this is being asked?

You’d be able to build a wall with all that money .......

[JoeShmoe]

11 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Might be alright long term but the GFS looks utterly clueless at the moment, I was looking at the 168 chart just thinking what the hell is this thing doing, it looks totally lost with all the background signals, SSW and other nuances in play.

That will be the same GFS that 10 days ago got today's pressure charts pretty much spot on?

https://www.metcheck.com/OTHER/gfs_verification.asp#

 

[weather_it_will]

14 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

Does anyone think this maybe down to the US government departments that are shut ?

High pressure seems to dominate on this 12z run in the reliable time frame giving us lots of mostly dry weather.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Mapantz

[bluearmy]

Gfs is flapping about with possible solutions - I can see why it’s trying what it’s trying but it goes overboard on almost everything.... too flat, too amplified, too fast, too slow etc etc

be keen to see what the para does with this run ...

[Weathizard]

Just now, JoeShmoe said:

That will be the same GFS that 10 days ago got today's pressure charts pretty much spot on?

https://www.metcheck.com/OTHER/gfs_verification.asp#

 

And that’s relevant now because? Has no relevance on this week. Watch the way it blows that low up and the way the lows interact between day 5-8 and you’ll understand why I said that, it looks totally implausible, but we shall see.

[northwestsnow]

To my suprise its getting there at 312..

FI i know but troughing into Europe and azores high pulled west..

[warrenb]

Well the easterly nearly came off, but now it is going to drop the PV on us. Epic last few charts to come, but total hogwash I am afraid.

[SMU]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only if the replacement is definitely better.

Solid 12z suite 

UKMO / ICON portray similar evoltutions which by coincidence is replicatwd & run through by the GEM-

very cold from day 6> onwards

high snow potential similar to 2013 thereafter day 8 

The steering wedge over SE iceland playing its key role

GFS fairly inconsistent V the rest...

[Norrance]

Keep to the models please. 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

15 minutes ago, andymusic said:

based in Pontypridd right on top of a 240m mountain - very famous mountain too - laura street just below us where Sir Tom Jones grew up - last years beast gave us 7 foot drifts - this time could be even worse with the longevity too - drifts up to the bungalows roof could very well be possible the way the models are sizing up

Oh wow 7 foot! I know Laura street as I have a friend living close by in Princess st. I saw some photos of the drifts last March in the Rhondda and they were up over the cars, but it wasn't as bad as we were expecting down here, in fact we had more lying snow in Dec 2010. 

Anyway GFS 12z still doesn't have that low running through the English Channel like the GFS Para 6z (high pressure looks more in charge at that time although a band of rain would quickly push through from NW to SE) so it'll be interesting to see if that channel low still shows on the 12z. 

[Vikos]

Looks like a tropospheric split btw

[warrenb]

3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Looks like a tropospheric split btw

That would go on to produce a massive easterly, but as said, total hogwash.

Edited January 10, 2019 by warrenb

[DEYS(Kent)]

I know it's in La La land but end of GFS 12z has a 1987 look about it. As in the behaviour of the Arctic High.. 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Solid 12z suite 

UKMO / ICON portray similar evoltutions which by coincidence is replicatwd & run through by the GEM-

very cold from day 6> onwards

high snow potential similar to 2013 thereafter day 8 

The steering wedge over SE iceland playing its key role

GFS fairly inconsistent V the rest...

I tell you what though Steve, look at that serious 1987 style cold pool building up even on the GFS in FI, at some point there would be an Easterly and if there was.............

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

That would go on to produce a massive easterly

Hmm, nah... much more N to NNE, hitting MidEu... UK too close to High on Atlantic....