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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Signals are still good for a colder spell in late January, but we should keep in mind, that the tropospheric forecasts for a period like +10-14 days isn't a very logical thing in a chaotic system...

 

Ever had a closer look at a bubble?

 

seifenblase-ebb873a0-9234-4e12-a5e8-e319

 

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

@No Balls Like Snow Balls from the other day!

A good example of why De Bilt ensembles can be important to view, drag that cold air off the continent and it's low DP's

image.thumb.png.252f7b0ac29d5cea72292320391622f0.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

ECM and UKMO vs GFS. Who you going for? It’s so up in the air even at T144. Still, ECM and UKMO have their differences, especially with US PV strength.

9550DE89-2BCD-45FB-A640-1E63D3E17F3A.png

4AFB3186-6E6A-457C-9BAC-2C5285566295.png

A088906F-F0CE-471B-B4EC-E6BB621504DF.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can't see time stamps? when is that for?

approx 174z (on gfs 6z) on the left

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

One difference on this run compared to the 0z  is lower heights over Italy   never a bad thing   to be honest the GFS just seems a slower evolution than the others   

gfsnh-0-240.png

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

It looks like the 18z last night was indeed an outlier in amplifying straight away. The Euro and both GFS models have returned to yesterday’s pattern of events which is essentially that winter arrives for Scotland on the 17th via a nnw, winter arrives for the bulk of England on the 20th/21st via Wnw which all been well should push showers well inland. Afterwards there are some runs and ensembles trying to bring easterlies albeit at that range the signal is still incoherent.

That's the firm trend, in my opinion, has been since Monday. We need to firstly endure NW'rly flows from the 14th for a few days, wintry showers (more up North than anywhere) in between rain bands with average to cold temps the further North you go. Come the end of the next working week (D7/D8 currently) winds back increasingly to the North with NW-SE diving lows becoming more prominent. The final third of January, snow likely almost anywhere at times, but equally many might have to endure bitter cold crisp nights and days whilst being predominantly dry, oh yes, with winds coming from an Easterly quadrant by then. I am expecting some stonking charts in the mid-range over the next couple of days for coldies to view.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I haven't had chance to view the models for a few days but im disappointed with the output.

Turning colder? Yes

Chance of snow? Yes

Possible weak blocking bringing temporary colder N/E,lys? Yes

Chance of robust blocking bringing prolonged cold spell? NO chance!

For the next 2 weeks all I see is brief outbreaks of relatively cool/cold weather with greatest chance of snow for the N and higher ground. Problem is no signicant blocking is likely to develop in the key areas that will bring a prolonged cold spell. The ECM is obviously very different but how many times do we see potential in the latter frames of the ECM?? Answer too many times and I always distrust the ECM especially at +216/+240.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

approx 174z (on gfs 6z) on the left

Thanks, I couldn't see it when opening the image? Nice reliable time frame then, not surprised there's a difference that far out, especially given the current setup!

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

00z swingometers, a bit of a swing back to cold zonality and less blocking to the NW, it seems to be put back off a bit, some cold runs for Jan 20th but quite a few are toppler northerlies.

image.thumb.png.f13ba4653675bce96ef6ddff528532e0.png Jan 20th

For January 25th, more of the same! The parallel is a standout.

image.thumb.png.9fe393e55b2c3b230bd26e4ac1f211ce.png Jan 25th

image.thumb.png.36e04a052ea1aa5f06b3739469e86212.png GFS parallel

Globally the temperature anomaly picture is still rather discouraging

image.thumb.png.f971911ca10151ae89133f42cf92a8eb.png

Warmer air getting into Newfoundland but we want it to move further into that region and send that deep cold pool towards the central US rather then NE Canada!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Not sure if any of these gfs runs are helping out currently in the evolution towards another 7/10 days time we're starting to get big differences in the mid-term. just all a bit of a hodge podge.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I haven't had chance to view the models for a few days but im disappointed with the output.

Turning colder? Yes

Chance of snow? Yes

Possible weak blocking bringing temporary colder N/E,lys? Yes

Chance of robust blocking bringing prolonged cold spell? NO chance!

For the next 2 weeks all I see is brief outbreaks of relatively cool/cold weather with greatest chance of snow for the N and higher ground. Problem is no signicant blocking is likely to develop in the key areas that will bring a prolonged cold spell. The ECM is obviously very different but how many times do we see potential in the latter frames of the ECM?? Answer too many times and I always distrust the ECM especially at +216/+240.

Spot on with your assessment for next 2 weeks but don't give up on blocking long term, Greenland unlikely in next 2 weeks now and that was my fear, however Iceland > Norway possible thereafter - don't give up, and of course individual (if short) decent falls of snow are still possible back end of week 2 just to whet the appetite.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The assumption being the cold air gets moved aside very quickly from the surface?

given there is a massive band of rain coming in - it does.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

given there is a massive band of rain coming in - it does.

And it stays as wintry stuff for the northern half of the UK.

I also doubt the GFS @240 will model the stubbornness of the low level cold that got dragged in from the east a few days before.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

Extended EPS T2s and T850s dipping at the very end of the run, which would be against model bias to drift back to climatology.

I'm struck at the moment by the Scandinavian trough and daughter vortex over Canada. Perfect mirroring of the stratospheric pattern. This is a clear influence which does not fit troposheric drivers. Between the two features, uncertainty abounds, but you can't escape the model trend for deep cold uppers forecast within the Canadian vortex. That should, against other signals, continue to remove the Greenland High option. I think more +ve height anomalies and a more likely mid Atlantic ridge rebuilding but not necessarily Greenland Highs are of the order, and tonight's EC run will be viewed with interest - there could well be a very slow downwell of the stronger -U wind anomalies from the warming to come which might be the trigger, although I'd like to see some more NAM plots to get a proper handle on this.

The tropical wave signal is moving extremely fast. By week 3, we could well be back to Dateline convection and Eastern Pacific. Again, good signal for sustained cold.

Other features catching my eye: the deeply negative state of the Arctic Oscillation (not unexpected for the second half of the winter); and, related to this, the ridge extending into the Arctic from Alaska modelled to break off and move towards Siberian sector. With the clockwise rotation developing in the Arctic lower tropospheric flow, this shows signs of moving towards Svalbard by month's end. With the European trough embedded, that makes for some interesting permutations for February.

Thanks Stewart - really good to have some more detail like this.

The tropical wave signal coming back around to 6-7-8 quite quickly has been a theme for a few days and agree that it is certainly a good thing for longer term prospects. The play between 2 strong lobes (Canada and Scandy) is indeed going to be interesting to watch play out. All my instincts were for a Greeny High when looking at pacific progress and forecast of the split through January - but if we dont see the Canadian lobe drain away due to strat forcing then these "wedgies" (thanks Chio!) that would replace a substantial block in the shorter term will encourage more of a flow from NW/N and occasionally NE direction which might mean slightly less deep cold than a pure continental feed but instead suggests a good deal more precipitation. As a south westerner that has me a bit concerned because the SW will tend to remain on the milder edge of that...but for those in areas further north then it could be a big win for snow. Developing strat profile out into February shows the Scandy shard dropping back east. Perhaps Scandy High territory later....so deeper cold, if a bit drier, into early Feb?

Fascinating watching. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Thank you!!

That’s all i’m seeing too, I’m really struggling to understand the excitement. It’ll be below average & cold, exceptionally so? Unlikely. Widespread heavy snowfall? Unlikely. 

If you’re in the North & living on a hill then be excited, but if you’re in the South I can’t see it, mid Atlantic blocks & Northerlies rarely produce widely. 

The models show colder weather, but nothing to match the level of excitement.. 

I am still excited because a) you never know how big a dumping you can get from sliders (not just on high ground in north), b) the models / background signals suggest lots more chances in the offering, yes i am disappointed in the initial Greenland high failure but loads of chances to come.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

I am beeing an optimist about it...

GFSPARAME00_312_25.pngGFSPARAME00_384_25.pngGFSPARAME00_348_17.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Sufficient wedge of high pressure forming upstream on 06z GFS just to the west to allow cold air advection from the north across the UK in wake of that low clearing next Friday, if the ridge has some staying power we could see any warm sector ahead of next frontal system trying to push in from the NW squeezed out across the west, allowing for potential of a frontal snow event somewhere, maybe widespread.

GFSOPEU06_234_2.thumb.png.c498133b6512f0a38bc002dbf9a6f577.png

Seems to be a growing theme for such an event from GFS (and 00z EC to an extent) end of next week/following weekend, but details / timing will be elusive so far off.

But the difference on the 6z run..between precip-in form of white/-or cold wet...is a knats #######..

!!!

And the overall evolution will likely be drastically different...by the time its knocking on the door...

Really beleive in some major changes in and around the canadian sector...in coming days!!!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

given there is a massive band of rain coming in - it does.

only if it verifies which it hardly does at day 5-6 nvm later on as someone posted about earlier

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