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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

You dont need massive blocking over greenland

A steering High pressure will do...

 

8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes.

Think people are thinking only yellows and greens over Greenland = cold.

You don't need this, as Steve says small pockets of heights to disrupt the jet is enough. March 2013 had some good examples of this from memory. 

Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Low pressure over Greenland is ok too especially when it's the PV on its way to Scandi.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Lloyds32 said:

 

Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.

Wedges of higher heights (and they don’t need to be too high) will do the job if we have a Euro trough 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
3 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

 

Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.

Even at face value, it is good. Very good...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is in the same ball park as the gfs post the short range, albeit with variations of the detail with iit's own interpretation of the precise phasing of the colder/warmer air.

Wednesday sees the passage of a major trough to the north and the associated frontal system bringing rain and quite strong winds to the UK and a brief northerly and then a transient ridge before the next system arrives.

t156.thumb.png.ae5910e8b095669438f40a05dde1c019.pngt192.thumb.png.af0d19ca6fc6996dce193cb1fece71a5.pngt222.thumb.png.98b474eb0e12766a0599326ef24f66d1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, s4lancia said:

Wowsers. I certainly left the best to view to last! That is some run. We don't get to see Op charts like this very often, in FI or otherwise...

today-gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.fe7d7cc290f005e035089df61232a2f9.png

Stunning

Its run of the season for me stunner and a banker.

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10 minutes ago, booferking said:

What a run from the FV3 para butral cold starts from next week right to the end what a run country snowed in

gfs-16-384.png

I will have a butchers today!

Wetterzentrale day 10 Ecm shows the green steering wedge SE of Greenland...

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I will have a butchers today!

Wetterzentrale day 10 Ecm shows the green steering wedge SE of Greenland...

Imo it also shows the beginning of a strong Atlantic ridge 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, That ECM said:

Imo it also shows the beginning of a strong Atlantic ridge 

IF we get to day 10 on EC its game on 

Obviously thats a big if but finally we see an EC det cold with the potential to go even colder..

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will have a butchers today!

Wetterzentrale day 10 Ecm shows the green steering wedge SE of Greenland...

Which has been evident in the extended for days now ....... looking at the current evolution over the pole, I feel that the arctic ridge will extend south further east than greeny area ...... we may get a hint of this on the 46 later with its anomoly week 3.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
11 minutes ago, booferking said:

What a run from the FV3 para butral cold starts from next week right to the end what a run country snowed in

gfs-16-384.png

Looks excellent to me. I do worry a bit when I see charts like that for the UK. We have plenty of snow and sub zero temps where I am now but people are more used to it and there is more infrastructure to deal with it. Will be a bit chaotic if that comes off. But enjoy if it does. Meanwhile I'm happy with the way the current ECM is going. And a little something to whet your snow appetite too. 

ECE1-240 (4).gif

IMG_20190109_122454.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Wedges of higher heights (and they don’t need to be too high) will do the job if we have a Euro trough 

Yes as a novice i don’t see heights as has previously been mentioned. 

Just looks blue and purple

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC is perfect! Justvwhat we wanted to start seeing! Great start to the day. GFs pants, but looks lost in its suite.

great start to the day. Happy Friday.

390F6C1E-62CE-4FBF-B53F-369E168026BE.thumb.png.25e0a47e9314331e6455ba2a96b8d8a2.png

 

It's Thursday!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC is perfect! Justvwhat we wanted to start seeing! Great start to the day. GFs pants, but looks lost in its suite.

great start to the day. Happy Friday.

390F6C1E-62CE-4FBF-B53F-369E168026BE.thumb.png.25e0a47e9314331e6455ba2a96b8d8a2.png

 

Gfs is doing it standard thing of letting everyone down on the 00z only to bring hopes back up on the 12z and 18z!!nothing new there lol!!ukmo best of the bunch this morning!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC is perfect! Justvwhat we wanted to start seeing! Great start to the day. GFs pants, but looks lost in its suite.

great start to the day. Happy Friday.

390F6C1E-62CE-4FBF-B53F-369E168026BE.thumb.png.25e0a47e9314331e6455ba2a96b8d8a2.png

Disappointing, just been told it’s Thursday. Of course it is, EC update tonight ?

Parallel is a cold outlier and the ensembles have trended milder toward the end

Screenshot_20190110-073322_Chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
18 minutes ago, booferking said:

Hurricane of snow feet of snow all snow FV3.

gfs-0-300.png

gfs-2-312.png

gfs-1-312.png

Oh I forgot about the FV3 this morning! What a run that is! Delivers for everyone :santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Parallel is a cold outlier and the ensembles have trended milder toward the end

Screenshot_20190110-073322_Chrome.jpg

FV3 is effectively a different model though. So it's a bit apples and oranges in a way.

Edited by Seasonality
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