Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No.

If only you ever stopped to analize the runs & how the GFS moves to the euros you would never be so foolish to assume the GFS leading the way-

What you actually seeing is the GFS coming into line with the UKMOs slower evolution.

Bang on..

Always imo..ukmo/ecm..

Then a blended slower evo via GFS-shes nearly always playing catch up out to 144+ hrs...

Then falls into the equasion, within the params!!..

Edit:-but obviously always look for trending 240+ for obvious reasons!!!

 

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by tight isobar

[Ice Day]

Decent upgrade here on the 18z.  Bringing in cold from the north earlier than previous runs.... cold well into the north at 234

  

[Mark wheeler]

And here is a chart from the mighty Navgem , 

Heard it’s not far behind in verification along with GFS . 

[ICE COLD]

Looking good on the 18z 

[booferking]

50 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs seems to be leading the way for the moment esp the ensembles. In the reliable a change to cold zonal is very likely with some snow for Northern hills.

The strat promises much but whether it will deliver or not won't be known for a while yet. Certainly no decent heights showing up in the 7 to 10 day outlook.

The whole thing feels very different to last March when things happened quickly. My heart says it will go cold but my head is telling me it wont

The only place not cold on the GFS run is Cork your head could be right

[Spah1]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’m quite liking the wedgie on this run. I wonder if it will lead to a breakthrough with the arctic high?

There’s got to a slider somewhere along the line. 

[Ice Day]

This is turning into a lovely run at 264... cheeky little low near the channel could usher in an easterly???

  

[karlos1983]

Oh go on then 

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, booferking said:

The only place not cold on the GFS run is Cork your head could be right

Oddly enough Cork gets a snowstorm 24hours later. Go on gfs ya good thing

[ICE COLD]

Oh yes baby 

[chionomaniac]

Ooh. Frontal battle zone at T+264. Likey. Someone is bound to put the precip chart up soon

Edited January 9, 2019 by chionomaniac

[summer blizzard]

GFS tonight is going for at least the short easterly update undercutting very early.

It is not in line with the Euro/GFS12z solution of a cold zonal flow however and so it may be overly amplified.

One thing is certain though, winter proper arrives from the 16th.

[tight isobar]

im sure in the not too distant the raws will start modeling the splitter situ (pv)..

Its gaing little by little now..with the break of segments adjusting all the while.

And a likely shrinking-evaporated north-western lobe....

@pole cutter

Edited January 9, 2019 by tight isobar

[ukpaul]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Ooh. Frontal battle zone at T+264. Likely. Someone is bound to put the precip chart up soon

As reported by GFS it’s actually pretty underwhelming. Much less so than the more active NW to SE slider. I’m not sure that wedge of heights does us any favours in that transition.

[Vikos]

This Low-Fastrunner at the french W-Coast

 

[SMU]

This would be one of those -20 debilt charts-

-10c for central England there overnight with snow arriving in the NW 

NB the trough axis again steep NW SE

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

The mobility remains and seems to fit the  cross model means evolutions ..... but without clusters we are a left wondering if the means mobility is simply timing or if this pub run is reflective of what may happen as the Atlantic ridge is replenished with a new system dropping in from the nw into the cold 

[Ice Day]

A messy looking chart, but very cold with -10 uppers widely across England. It won't look exactly like this, however the momentum is finally starting to build.  Looking like somewhere around 21-23 Jan could be the landing zone for proper cold!  

  

[phil nw.]

The diving low down to the Channel days 11-12 fits in with the gefs pattern and something like i envisaged in my earlier post.

Would do the job with only modest ridging out west.It pulls that deep cold by linking to the Scandi.trough -8c uppers !

[feb1991blizzard]

Don't get me wrong i am really looking forward to what is a potential stonking last half of winter, i would just love to see a Greenland high develop though around 20-25th, i don't normally talk about brutal winters as a whole and episodic months as for one they are very unlikely, and for second i would just settle for a blistering snow event with 10 inches, preferably a foot, and would be over the moon with 2 of those in a winter (1991,1987), but if we were to get a greenland high, with the strat as it is, particularly with a cross polar ridging episode, i really think it would be our best chance in our lifetime we will get to see another 1947.

[Bruegelian]

We want that high to punch up into NE Canada

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't get me wrong i am really looking forward to what is a potential stonking last half of winter, i would just love to see a Greenland high develop though around 20-25th, i don't normally talk about brutal winters as a whole and episodic months as for one they are very unlikely, and for second i would just settle for a blistering snow event with 10 inches, preferably a foot, and would be over the moon with 2 of those in a winter (1991,1987), but if we were to get a greenland high, with the strat as it is, particularly with a cross polar ridging episode, i really think it would be our best chance in our lifetime we will get to see another 1947.

Patience feb it might come a little further down the line maybe . Well I hope so

[ICE COLD]

Well another stonking FI , that’s for sure . 

[Roger J Smith]

I posted this table over in banter and perhaps a lot of more serious onlookers don't go in there, so as it's not really banter I am taking the liberty of posting it here also. Basically it's a summary of all major cold spells in the daily records of the CET from 1772 on (the first one caught being 1776, and there must have been some stonkers before 1772 but we have no way of knowing the daily details of them, 1740, 1684 and 1709 for example must have produced long cold spells. 

The bottom line is that one fifth of all winters have produced a cold spell of at least ten days (where the mean daily temperature stayed below 0.0). A few others produced ones that failed that test but were very significant (eight or nine very cold days, or just being a bit too late into March and getting the inevitable daytime boost). 

Also what this table reveals is that one cluster of cold spells started on dates in late December and early January, with another cluster preferring February. There was a bit of a half-time phenomenon in late January. However, I did note that some of the major February cold spells had a good start in that period of late January and just failed to attach by one or two days getting briefly above zero. I'm sure you would experience the 1947 cold spell as starting 24th January for example. But in the table it shows up later. 

So here's the table, I have reduced it to quite a small size to make the seasonal profile easier to see visually, but if you want to examine the details then go to a higher magnification. The table is arranged in order of duration of these cold spells and when several are tied, the mean temperature they achieved is used to sort them. 

Days _ Duration of Days 0.0 or lower ______________________________ Coldest ____ Average

______[] __DECEMBER__ [] __JANUARY__ [] _FEBRUARY_ [] __MARCH______

32 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  27 Dec 1813 - 27 Jan 1814 ....................................... -- 6.7 ...... -- 3.2

26 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7 Jan - 1 Feb 1776 ..............................................-- 7.5 ...... -- 3.0

22 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 5 - 26 Feb 1947..................-- 6.7 .... -- 2.5 ****

20 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  8 - 27 Jan 1881 .................................................. -- 8.1 ...... -- 4.6

20 ... ... ..(+12d see below) .. 7 - 26 Jan 1963 .................................................. --8.4 ...... -- 3.6 ***

18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 6 - 23 Feb 1855 ................. -- 7.5 .... -- 3.7

18 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Jan 1823 ................................................. -- 8.9 ...... -- 3.0

18 ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 26 Dec 1890 ........................................................................ -- 6.8 ...... -- 2.1

17 ... (very cold 31 Dec - 7 Jan).10-26 Jan 1795 .............................................  -- 8.9 ...... -- 4.0

15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Dec 1870 - 4 Jan 1871 ...............................................  -- 6.9 ...... -- 3.6

15... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 10-24 Jan 1940 ...(+11d later) ......................... .. -- 7.1 ...... -- 3.3

15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 24 Dec 1892 - 7 Jan 1893 ....................................... ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 3.3

15 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 Jan - 1 Feb 1784 ................................ . -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1

14 ... ... ... ... ...(+10d earlier) . 8 - 21 Jan 1838 ............................................. ... -- 11.9 ...... -- 5.1

14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 5-18 Feb 1895 ..........................  -- 8.3 ...... -- 4.8**

14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...  3-16 Jan 1820 ................................................... ....... -- 8.5 ...... -- 3.6

14 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 Jan - 3 Feb 1780 .......................... .... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.0

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 26 Jan - 7 Feb 1954 ...........................  -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.5

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 29 Dec 1860 ........................................................ ........ -- 3.7 ...... -- 2.1^

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-18 Feb 1986 .......................... ... -- 4.6 ...... -- 1.6

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 14 - 26 Feb 1956..................... -- 3.2 .... -- 1.6

13 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 29 Dec - 10 Jan 1811 ............................................. ... -- 3.6 ...... -- 1.5

12 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-17 Jan 1987 ................................................ ..... -- 7.7 ...... -- 2.6

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 23 Dec 1962 - 3 Jan 1963 .(plus 20d ^^).......................... -- 3.6 ...... -- 2.2 ***

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 18 - 29 Jan 1880 ......................................... ..... -- 4.3 ...... -- 2.1

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3 - 14 Feb 1991 ............................. ... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.9

12 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 25 Dec 1853 - 5 Jan 1854 ........................................ ..... -- 5.0 ...... -- 1.8

12 ... ... ... 30 Nov - 11 Dec 1796 .......................................................................... ..... -- 4.7 ...... -- 1.8

12 ......... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 17 - 28 Feb 1955 .......... -- 3.3 ... -- 1.7

11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... .17 - 27 Dec 2010 ............................................................. ...... -- 7.0 ...... -- 3.9

11 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Jan 1867 ................................................. .... -- 5.0 ...... -- 2.9

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1 - 11 Feb 1917 ................................. ...... -- 7.2 ...... -- 2.8 *

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 9 - 19 Feb 1985 ........................ ... -- 4.1 ...... -- 2.7

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2-12 Jan 1879 ..................................................... ........ -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.3

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-16 Jan 1850 .............................................. ........ -- 2.8 ...... -- 1.4

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 25 Dec 1820 - 4 Jan 1821 ............................................ ........ -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 11 - 21 Feb 1853.......................  -- 3.2 ...... -- 1.2

11 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...(+15d earlier ^^) . 9 - 19 Feb 1940 ..........................  --2.5 ....... --1.1

10 ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 6-15 Jan 1982 ..................................................... .... --7.6 ...... -- 4.0

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Jan 1826 .......................................... .............-- 6.9 ..... -- 3.7

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 20 - 29 Jan 1945 ............................ ........ -- 7.6 ...... -- 3.5

10 ... ... ... ... 5 - 14 Dec 1844 ................ .............................................................. ............-- 5.5 ...... -- 2.7 ... see below Mar 1845

10 ... ... ... ... ... 8 - 17 Dec 1878 ............................................................................. ......... -- 5.3 ...... -- 2.9^^

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 16 - 25 Jan 1829 .................................. ....... -- 4.8 ...... -- 2.8

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 14 - 23 Jan 1809 .................................. ........ -- 5.1 ...... -- 2.4

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 24 Dec 1836 - 2 Jan 1837 ................................................ ........... -- 3.3 ...... -- 1.3

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...23 Dec 1837 - 1 Jan 1838 ..(+14d later) ............................. .......... -- 2.7 ...... -- 1.4

10 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 - 30 Jan 1917 .(1-11 Feb^)................. -- 1.8 ... -- 1.1 *

__________________________________________________

^ Most of the period 1-16 Jan 1861 was also subzero, the 31-day period 17 Dec 1860 to 16 Jan 1861 averaged -1.3 C.

^^ This cold spell extended from 7 to 26 Dec, 20 days in which the mean CET was --2.4 C. The interval 20-25 Dec was --3.7 C.

* Except for +0.3 on 31 Jan 1917, a 22 day spell avg --1.8 C lasting 21 Jan to 11 Feb.

** A longer spell of 24 days with +0.4 as warmest, 26 Jan - 18 Feb 1895, avg --3.7 C.

*** Although there were only two spells in winter 1962-63 that qualified for this list, note that the period of 35 days that includes the two, 23 Dec to 26 Jan, averaged -2.7 C and 70 days 22 Dec to 2 March averaged -- 1.5 C.

**** The 45-day period 23 Jan to 8 Mar 1947 averaged --1.9 C.

<<>> RECENT NEAR MISSES & EXPANSION OF 1986 FROM LIST <<>>

25 Nov to 4 Dec 2010 averaged -- 1.7 C and 25 Nov to 8 Dec averaged -- 1.7 C but these periods failed by a slight margin to make the list (25 Nov was +0.3 and 5 Dec was +0.4).

The 26-day period from 6 Feb to 3 Mar 1986 averaged -- 1.2 C.

The 15-day period from 5 to 19 Jan 1985 averaged --1.7 C. (11th not subzero so it has no ten-day interval)

1 to 10 Jan 2010 averaged --1.9 C but failed to make the list because 2 Jan was +0.3 C.

16 to 25 Jan 2013 averaged --0.9 C but failed to make the list because 24 Jan was +0.7 C.

8-26 Dec 1981 averaged -- 2.3 C.

___________________________________

honourable mention should be given to 11-20 March 1845, there were two days in that 10-day interval slightly above zero but the average so late in the season was --1.7 C and contains the coldest March day (-6.5 on 13th). Also, in terms of a sustained cold anomaly, 21 March to 1st April 2013 (12 days) had a mean of +1.2 C. 1785 was even colder at the same time of year, 13 days from 22 March to 3 April had an average of +0.8 C. In terms of early winter season sustained cold, the interval 11-16 Nov 1919 averaged --0.3 C. 

________________________________

ANALYSIS of starting dates for 10-day or longer cold spells

Of all the 51 spells (in 47 winters, roughly 19% of the years surveyed) including the later ones in March, but excluding those that just missed during the winter season, this is the frequency count for starting dates:

xx Nov to 10 Dec __ 4

11 to 20 Dec ______ 2

21 to 31 Dec ______ 9

01 to 10 Jan ______13

11 to 20 Jan ______ 6

21 to 31 Jan ______ 3

01 to 10 Feb ______ 8

11 to 20 Feb ______ 3

21 Feb or later ____ 3

For whatever reason, there is a period from 21st January to start of February when these spells are less likely to commence. A second cluster then emerges around first week of February often lasting longer than 10 days. We have now reached the point in the winter when half of these significant cold spells had begun. The three-quarters point is around 8 February. Not that length is the only important point when comparing cold spells, last winter's late bloomer lasted about five days but "did the business" for snowfall and set a daily record on the 1st of March. Not all of the above set daily records, about two-thirds did (and sometimes quite a few, for example 1776 set five in a row). You will find examples of winters with a cold spell listed and some other memorable cold or snow outside that interval, for example, in Dec 1796 a later but shorter cold spell produced the coldest December day. February's coldest day in 1816 was embedded in a seven-day subzero stretch which was about a week after an earlier five day interval at end of January. The spell listed for 1956 is not the most memorable cold of that month, that happened in the first few days of February. But that spell only ran to five days.

Will this winter join the list? If so, likely to be 23 January or so before it begins. The 1947 subzero cold spell began on 24th, the interval to 2nd averaged -1.7 but fell one day short of this list (and by 0.1 C on 23rd). Two days of 0.7 separated that from the main cold spell shown in the table and it then stayed very cold to about the 10th of March. 

 

[The Eagle]

18 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

This is turning into a lovely run at 264... cheeky little low near the channel could usher in an easterly???